While George W. Bush's job approval ratings have shown signs of a modest recovery in Gallup's most recent polls, his recent ratings have been among the lowest of his presidency, including a term-low rating of 50% in a Sept. 19-21 poll. For the quarter that began on July 20 and concluded on Oct. 19 (the 11th of his presidency), Bush averaged a 55.7% job approval rating*. This is a low mark for his presidency, on par with the quarterly average ratings in his first (58.4%) and second (55.8%) quarters as president.
This latest rating is nearly nine points lower than his previous quarter average, and represents the first real quarterly decline for Bush since his eighth quarter as president. Bush had an unprecedented 86% quarterly average from October 2001 to January 2002.
The most recent quarterly rating ranks 122nd out of 231 presidential quarters in Gallup's polling history, placing Bush's most recent quarter in the middle of the distribution.
Quarterly Averages and Re-election Prospects
History shows little relationship between a president's quarterly approval rating at this stage in his presidency, and the likelihood of his being re-elected. The following table shows where the recent presidents who were elected to their first term in office stood at this stage in their presidency.
Quarterly Average Job Approval Ratings for Presidents Who Sought Re-Election
|
President |
11th Quarter Average |
Re-elected? |
|
% |
||
|
Eisenhower |
72.7 |
Yes |
|
Nixon |
50.5 |
Yes |
|
Carter |
31.4 |
No |
|
Reagan |
44.4 |
Yes |
|
George H.W. Bush |
68.7 |
No |
|
Clinton |
46.4 |
Yes |
Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Bill Clinton all had a lower quarterly average at this stage in their first term than does the current president, and all three were re-elected. The elder George Bush's 11th-quarter average was significantly higher than the current president's, but rapidly declined before he was defeated for re-election in 1992 (between the 11th and 12th quarters, the elder Bush's approval rating fell from 68.7% to 53.2%). Jimmy Carter had a significantly lower 11th-quarter average on his way to losing his re-election bid in 1980.
There is much time for Bush's political fortunes to drastically change for the better -- or the worse -- as he seeks a second term in office.
Bush in Historical Perspective
Bush's average job approval rating for his entire term to this point is still a robust 67%. Only John Kennedy had a higher average for a presidency -- 70% from 1961-1963. Looking just at presidents' first terms in office, Bush's 67% average is lower than the averages of Lyndon Johnson (74%), Kennedy (70%), and Dwight Eisenhower (70%), but higher than the averages of the elder Bush (61%), Harry Truman (57%), Nixon (56%), Reagan (50%), Clinton (50%), Gerald Ford (47%), and Carter (45%).
While Bush's ratings for his handling of the economy and foreign affairs both show recent declines, his averages on these ratings for his term still compare favorably to recent presidents'. To date, Bush has averaged a 53% approval rating on the economy and 61% on foreign affairs. Bush's average economic approval rating is about the same as Clinton's (52%), who received the highest average economic approval of the last three presidents. Bush's 61% average approval rating on foreign affairs is lower than his father's 65% average, but higher than that of Clinton (48%), Reagan (43%), and Carter (46%).
Bottom Line
Bush's public ratings are currently among the lowest in his presidency, even accounting for the recent improvement to a 56% job approval rating in the most recent Gallup Poll. That recent rating is right about the historical average for all presidents, and as Bush enters the 2004 election year, a key will be for him to keep that rating above 50%. As far back as Truman, no president has lost a re-election bid with an approval rating (measured right before the election) above 50%, and no president has won re-election with an approval rating below 50%.
*George W. Bush's quarterly average job approval rating is based on the seven approval ratings in Gallup Polls conducted between July 21 and Oct. 20, 2003. Each poll consists of interviews with approximately 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, and has a maximum margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points.
Presidents' term approval averages are based on the average of their quarterly approval ratings for their terms in office.
