PRINCETON, NJ -- Prosecutors in California are expected to formally file multiple child sexual molestation charges against pop singer Michael Jackson this week. A new Gallup Poll finds that a majority of Americans believe the allegations that he sexually abused a boy are definitely or probably true. Most Americans also hold an unfavorable view of Jackson. On both questions, a significant racial gap in perceptions exists -- blacks are much more likely to view Jackson favorably than are whites, and also to believe the allegations against Jackson are untrue. In recent days, amid news reports that the victim's case against Jackson may not be particularly strong, there has been a slight drop in the percentage of Americans who believe that the allegations are true.
The most recent poll, conducted, Dec. 11-14, shows 54% of Americans saying the sexual abuse allegations against Jackson are "definitely" (7%) or "probably" (47%) true. Thirty-one percent say the charges are "probably" (27%) or "definitely" (4%) not true.
Public reaction to the scandal has shifted somewhat in the past several days. The percentage believing the allegations are true has dropped from 62% in a Dec. 5-7 CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll to the current 54%. More Americans are moving to an unsure or neutral stance on the charges, as the percentage not expressing a view on the allegations has risen from 9% to 15% in the past week. Meanwhile, the percentage believing the charges are not true has stayed fairly steady (29% to 31%).
| As you may know, the police arrested Michael Jackson on suspicion that he sexually abused a boy. Do you personally believe these allegations are -- definitely true, probably true, probably not true, or definitely not true? |
 |
In recent days, news reports have cast doubt as to the strength of the victim's case, in light of a leaked confidential memo from a Los Angeles County child welfare official concerning Jackson's relationship to the alleged victim. The memo revealed that allegations that Jackson abused the boy in question had earlier been dismissed as "unfounded," based largely on denials from the alleged victim and two of his family members that Jackson had ever molested the child. Questions have also arisen as to why the prosecutors have delayed filing formal charges against Jackson following his Nov. 20 arrest.
Negative Views of Jackson
Public opinion of the self-proclaimed "King of Pop" is decidedly negative, but no more so than before his recent arrest. In the latest poll, nearly two in three Americans, 65%, say they have an unfavorable view of Jackson, while only 18% view him favorably (the remaining 17% are neutral or have no opinion of him). This is roughly the same as a 67% unfavorable rating from earlier this month, and a 70% unfavorable rating from a February 2003 poll conducted shortly after the airing of the controversial "Living with Michael Jackson" documentary.
| Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of pop singer Michael Jackson, or have you never heard of him? |
 |
Not all Americans hold negative views of Jackson, though, as most blacks rate him favorably. Combining the results of the two recent polls yields a sufficient sample size of blacks to produce reliable estimates by race. Fifty-four percent of blacks have a favorable view of Jackson, while just 30% view him unfavorably. On the other hand, fully 7 in 10 whites (73%) view Jackson unfavorably, while only 13% have a positive view of him.
| Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of pop singer Michael Jackson, or have you never heard of him? |
 |
| Dec. 5-7, 2003; Dec. 11-14, 2003 |
Additionally, nearly two in three blacks believe the allegations against Jackson are untrue, while roughly two in three whites say they are true. Over the years, Gallup has observed similar black-white differences on the guilt or innocence of O.J. Simpson, Mike Tyson, and (to a lesser degree) Kobe Bryant in their legal cases.
The Future for Michael Jackson
The Dec. 5-7 poll also asked the public what it thought the future should hold for Jackson given the possible criminal charges against him and suspicions about his relations with children. Half of Americans believe Jackson should be allowed to keep custody of his own children until this matter is settled, while 45% believe he should not.
On a professional level, 58% say Jackson should continue his musical career, while 32% say he should not. This repeated a question from January 1994, after Jackson was dogged by abuse allegations (he later reached a settlement with the accuser even though formal charges were never filed against Jackson). That poll showed more enthusiasm for a continued musical career for Jackson, as 69% said he should continue making music at that time, while 18% said he should not.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 11-14, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Results on the 163 black adults, aged 18 and older, and 1,629 non-Hispanic whites, aged 18 and older, are taken from combined data from the Dec. 5-7, 2003, and Dec. 11-14, 2003, national Gallup Polls. For results based on the black adult sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±8 percentage points. For results based on the white adult sample, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of pop singer Michael Jackson, or have you never heard of him?
|
|
Un- |
MIXED |
NEUTRAL |
Never |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Dec 11-14 |
18 |
65 |
2 |
12 |
1 |
2 |
|
2003 Dec 5-7 |
19 |
67 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
|
2003 Feb 7-9 |
17 |
70 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
2 |
As you may know, the police arrested Michael Jackson on suspicion that he sexually abused a boy. Do you personally believe these allegations are – [ROTATED: definitely true, probably true, probably not true, (or) definitely not true]?
|
Definitely true |
Probably true |
Probably not true |
Definitely not true |
No |
|
|
2003 Dec 11-14 |
7% |
47 |
27 |
4 |
15 |
|
2003 Dec 5-7 |
11% |
51 |
22 |
7 |
9 |
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,004 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 5-7, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
51. Do you think Michael Jackson should continue his musical career, or not?
BASED ON –510—NATIONAL ADULTS
|
Yes, should |
No, should not |
No opinion |
||
|
2003 Dec 5-7 ^ |
58% |
32 |
10 |
|
|
1994 Jan 26-27 |
69% |
18 |
13 |
|
|
^ |
Asked of a half sample. |
|||
52. Do you think Michael Jackson should – or should not – be allowed to keep custody of his children until this matter is settled?
BASED ON –494—NATIONAL ADULTS
|
Yes, should |
No, should not |
No opinion |
|
|
2003 Dec 5-7 |
50% |
45 |
5 |
