Here's a follow-up on a few items of interest.
Healthcare Reform Bill
I talked in this space a few weeks ago about American attitudes toward the healthcare reform bill passed earlier this year. This bill is a key issue in this campaign, the second highest rated issue by Democrats, and the third highest among Republicans and independents. When we ask Americans what it is they wish the federal government should not do that it is doing now, healthcare is at the top of the list.
My previous post reviewed a number of recent polls on the healthcare reform bill. Four of the five I reviewed showed a net negative reaction to the bill. The one which, at that point, stood out was the September tracking update conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation. It showed a 49% to 40% favorable over unfavorable margin on the healthcare bill. This month (October) the Kaiser update settled back down again to roughly where it was in August, with a slight 44% to 42% unfavorable over favorable impression. That's in line with most other polling on the bill. The Kaiser tracking data make it clear that opinions on the bill may be somewhat labile, but I think it's fair to say that, so far, we have no evidence of majority support for the bill.
The Obama administration views the bill as a valuable contribution to the American people's well-being. The Obama administration believes that support will rise as the benefits of the bill become evident in the months and years ahead. Of course, that's why we will continue to monitor support going forward. But in terms of election politics, the midterm vote is nigh upon us, not in the future. It is the current views of the healthcare bill that have become the pivotal issue on the campaign trail.
The Federal Government
One of the controversial aspects of the healthcare reform act is its involvement of the U.S. government in that particular aspect of U.S. life. The appropriate role of the federal government as the instrument to guide social progress and solve social problems is a very significant issue to Americans. We have another confirmation of how this issue divides Americans from recent survey results written up by my colleague Jeff Jones. The striking finding is that very, very few Democrats chose the "size and power of the federal government" as the most important issue driving their vote in the midterm election. On the other hand, this is the second most important issue to Republicans, after economic conditions. We have found this wide partisan divide consistently in our research on Americans' relationships with their government. It's a hugely important variable in American society today.
Economic Confidence
Americans' positive views about the U.S. economy are picking up marginally, but probably not enough nor soon enough to have a meaningful effect on the midterm elections. The improvement in our latest weekly averages shows a mild pick-up in consumer confidence and our job creation index remains in relatively positive territory.
Key Indicators: Satisfaction, Congress, and Presidential Approval
Satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. and job approval of Congress are low on an absolute basis, but better now than in 2008. Congress approval reached its all time low of 14% in July 2008. Satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. reached 7% in October 2008, also the lowest on record. Both of these measures came in the middle of 2008 presidential election campaigning in which rhetoric was flying around and at a time when the economic recession was initially being recognized. Today? Congress approval has risen to 21% and satisfaction with the way things are going is at 22%.
Obama's job approval is not the lowest of his administration (as was announced on one cable news show). In fact, in our most recent tracking update, he's at 45%, basically holding his own.
Tea Partiers
The percent of Americans who are supporters of the Tea Party is down slightly in our recent polling. The latest two Gallup polls have shown that 26% of Americans say they are supporters of the Tea Party. That is, by a couple of points, the lowest we have measured in five surveys since March. As has been the case in the past, 57% of Tea Party supporters are Republicans, 35% independents, and a lonely 7% are Democrats. On the other hand, 62% of those who say they are opposed to the Tea Party are Democrats, 30% independents, and a lonely 7% are Republicans.
Smoking and Religion
Religion is highly related to smoking. The relationship between church attendance and smoking is, in fact, a straight linear function. Among those who attend church weekly, 12% smoke (this is based on an analysis of about 30,000 interviews conducted as part of the Gallup Daily tracking in September). Among those who attend almost every week, 15% smoke, among those who attend monthly 21% smoke, among those who seldom attend 27% smoke, and among those who never attend religious services 30% smoke. So the smoking rate is twice as high among those who never attend church as it is among those who attend church weekly. Everything relates to politics, of course, in this season, so it is perhaps fitting that I remind you that President Obama still smokes at last report and Republican minority House Leader John Boehner definitely smokes. If the Republicans win control of the House and Boehner becomes speaker, we will have the president and the man second in line to succeed the president who are part of the relative minority of adults who smoke. Religiously speaking, Boehner is a Catholic. Obama is a Christian by choice but with unclear denominational affiliation. I'm not sure how either would score on two questions that we use to measure religiosity, but we know that the president has not been a frequent church attender since occupying the White House.