Next up for Mitt Romney and the other GOP presidential contenders is Louisiana, which holds its primary this Saturday, March 24. After that comes a brief break in the action and then a set of three primaries on April 3 in the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Wisconsin.
As predicted by our very narrow (and primitive) "religiosity" forecast model, Romney won in Illinois by about a 12-percentage-point margin.
Nationally, after having dropped to within four points of Rick Santorum just before Illinois, Romney has moved back out to an 11-point lead in our latest five-day tracking aggregate through March 21. This is a good sign for Romney and marks almost three full weeks in which he has led his nearest competitor at the national level.
What is going to happen on Saturday in Louisiana (the 18th state to enter the Union -- in 1812)? Well, there are two somewhat contradictory indications based on the religious composition of Louisiana voters.
The not-so-good news for Romney is that Louisiana's Republicans are quite religious, with an average 52% weekly church attendance. There are, in fact, only six other states that have held primaries or caucuses so far that have -- like Louisiana -- 50% or higher weekly church attendance among their GOP population. These are:
- South Carolina (Romney lost to Gingrich)
- Missouri (Romney lost to Santorum)
- Oklahoma (Romney lost to Santorum)
- Tennessee (Romney lost to Santorum)
- Alabama (Romney lost to Santorum)
- Mississippi (Romney lost to Santorum)
One quickly sees the trend here. On this basis, we would say that Santorum has a better chance of doing well in Louisiana than he did in Illinois -- which, as I discussed here, has a significantly less religious Republican population.
There is, however, one somewhat paradoxical fly in the ointment as far as Santorum's chances in Louisiana are concerned. Louisiana, thanks in part to the history of Catholic refugees fleeing from Canada's Arcadia region to the Louisiana area almost 250 years ago, has a higher than usual Catholic population among its Republican base. In fact, 34% of all Republicans in Louisiana, by our 2011 estimates, are Catholic.
I say this is paradoxical because, of course, Santorum is a Catholic -- yet does not perform well among Catholics. Romney the Mormon does best among Catholics. Just as a point of reference, we see that in our Gallup aggregate of national Republican voters from March 1 to March 20, Romney leads Santorum by 41% to 20% among Catholics, but ties him 30% to 30% among Protestants.
After Louisiana Republicans have their say on Saturday, a lot of eyes will be focused on Wisconsin. The religious composition of Republicans there? Forty percent of Republicans in Wisconsin attend church weekly, which is below average and therefore good news for Romney. Interestingly, 36% of Wisconsin Republicans are Catholic, a big number, and which, as I explained above, also augers well for Romney's chances in the Badger state.