Gingrich Resurgent -- Again

Newt Gingrich has been on a fascinating, dramatic roller coaster ride among Republicans nationwide. His Positive Intensity Score as we measured it at Gallup was high at the beginning of the year, then fell down, then rose up again. His standing in Gallup's nationwide GOP trial heat tracking was up, then down, and is now climbing back up again. Republicans, in essence, keep ditching him, and then coming back to him again. And again.

This past week has seen a virtual cornucopia of high news value events on the Republican campaign trail. We have two candidates who dropped out (Huntsman and Perry), the intense focus on Mitt Romney's income tax returns/income/job at Bain Capital, the allegations about Gingrich's moral character from his second wife, a bump for Rick Santorum when recounts suggested that he may have won the Iowa caucuses, and two debates.

Polls in South Carolina now suggest that Gingrich may win that state's primary. If so, the question is what impact that will have on the feelings of Republicans nationwide, and in the states whose primaries are to follow. At the moment, Romney maintains a lead among Republicans nationally, but one that is rapidly shrinking.

If Gingrich wins in South Carolina, history suggests he will get a further bump nationally. This means that he may also get a bump in Florida, which holds its primary on Jan. 31. One issue about Florida is that it is a big state and, in many ways, mirrors the national average on important characteristics. For example, it is about average in terms of its religiousness as measured by church attendance. So it's a different playing field than exists in South Carolina.

People ask me about the impact of Romney and his tax returns. It's probable that the impact is more in how Romney handles the questions that it is his taxes per se. Americans certainly think that upper-income Americans should pay more in taxes and favor increased taxes on the rich. Whether they view Romney more negatively because he is rich and pays less taxes than some might think he should is unclear.

What about the bitter statements from Gingrich's second wife? Gingrich obviously was able to turn that situation on its head with his well-thought out responses in Thursday night's South Carolina debate with his lash out at CNN and the news media. This type of deflection attempt by politicians is, of course, not new. Hillary Clinton in almost precisely the same way lashed out at what she perceived to be a "vast right wing conspiracy" when the news media were on the trail of her husband Bill's sexual dalliances. Of course the fact that it's a common political maneuver doesn't mean that it isn't effective. It shows, if nothing else, that Gingrich is a shrewd political operator and able to handle himself on his feet. The fact that Romney was not able to perform similarly well in response to the questions and criticisms of his work with Bain and his tax returns shows he does not yet appear to have Gingrich's well-honed political instincts.

Gingrich's strategy at Thursday's debate was particularly shrewd because it fits with Republicans' views of the media. Republicans dislike the news media, based on our research, and are highly likely to perceive them as too liberal. Thus, Gingrich's carefully calculated diatribe against the negative media Thursday night no doubt resonated with rank-and-file Republicans nationwide.

As I've noted, South Carolina is a very religious state and one which is predominantly Protestant. The three leading contenders in the state are all not traditional Protestants. Gingrich and Santorum are Catholics, of which there are relatively few in South Carolina, and Romney is, of course, Mormon, of which there are even fewer. There is, in short, no Mike Huckabee who fits in directly with the predominant religious orientation of voters in the state of South Carolina.

Our recent research on positive intensity shows that Gingrich has a problem nationally with Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who recognize him, 42% of whom have a strongly unfavorable view of him. Santorum also generates strongly negative reactions, with 30% of Democrats who recognize him giving him a strongly unfavorable rating. Romney, on the other hand, has a more benign image among Democrats, with only 16% viewing him unfavorably. Romney also has a somewhat better Positive Intensity Score among Republicans nationally than does Gingrich.

If there is one thing we have learned so far this election cycle concerning the Republican race, it is that Republicans are this year fluid, flexible, and ever-changing in their views on whom they want to be their party's nominee. Thus, history suggests that we will see even more change from this point on.