Iowa Results Reflect Same Romney-Centric Pattern

The results of the Iowa caucuses last night deviated from the national structure of the GOP race in two respects. First, Newt Gingrich, who has been among the top two Republicans nationally, did poorly in Iowa on a relative basis, coming in fourth with about 13% of the vote of caucus-goers. Second, two candidates who have been below the top tier, Rick Santorum and Ron Paul, did much better in Iowa than they have nationally, with 25% and 22% of the vote, respectively.

And then, as has been the case all year, there's Mitt Romney - steady as she goes, neither blowing away the competition nor dropping dramatically. Romney's 25% of the Iowa caucus-goers' vote is emblematic of his support nationally. In fact, as of Jan. 2, Romney's percentage of support among Republicans nationally is 24%.

This is part and parcel of the same pattern we have been seeing all year: Romney at or near the top in support, albeit it without ever having surged forward into the 30% range, while a changing cast of characters move up and down around him. This is somewhat like a Broadway show with one star who stays with the production, as a changing supporting cast moves in and then moves out as time goes on.

The most recent supporting cast stars are Santorum and Paul. They are replacing a Romney-supporting cast that previously has consisted of Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Gingrich.

Our latest Gallup tracking of Republicans nationally shows Gingrich still hanging in there with Romney, with Paul behind and Santorum way behind. We didn't poll on Dec. 29, 30, or 31, so the five-day averages we report on our site will take a while to reflect the impact of pre-Iowa build-up and the actual Iowa results. But our interviewing Monday showed Santorum on the rise, and his finish in Iowa most likely will boost his national standing. Thus, it would not be surprising if you tune in to gallup.com over the next several days and find that Romney is still there in the mid-20s, but with - instead of Perry, Cain, or Gingrich next to him - Paul and Santorum as his closest competitors.

Romney should win in New Hampshire. That state is next door to Massachusetts, where Romney lived, worked, and served as governor, and Romney has a fashionable vacation home on the shores of LakeWinnipesaukee in Wolfeboro, N.H. However, caution is warranted when it comes to New Hampshire voters. In 2008, pre-election polls firmly predicted that Barack Obama, fresh off his victory in Iowa, would win the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. He didn't. Hillary Clinton won. The shift may have resulted in late changes of mind among New Hampshire voters, reminding us that things can change at the last minute.

At any rate, after New Hampshire, the candidates who are left (Perry and possibly Michele Bachmann will drop out soon) are off to South Carolina and Florida. The latest polls in those two states are from mid-December, ancient history in the fast cascading sequence of events that are underway now. So we don't know what will happen in these two Southern venues. No doubt the results of Iowa and New Hampshire will affect those voters. More broadly, my colleague Jeff Jones will later today post an analysis of the impact of Iowa's results on the national polls in previous years, providing a historical context you will not want to miss.

Entrance poll data in Iowa - based on interviews with caucus-goers as they entered the voting place - show that Santorum captured the vote of Tea Partiers and those who are very conservative and most interested in the issue of abortion. Paul, as we have been showing in our Gallup data, captured the vote of younger voters, those more on the fringe of the core Republican party (independents, new voters), moderate/liberals, and those most interested in the federal deficit. Romney got the vote of older Republicans, those with higher incomes, those most concerned about the economy, those whose primary concern is a candidate who can beat Obama, and those who value a candidate with experience.

Obama is somewhat on the sidelines right now as the political focus is on the Republican side of the ledger. But his approval rating is edging up slightly (45% as of Jan 2), and national economic indicators are looking somewhat better.