Impact of the Christmas Bombing Incident

We've seen in recent weeks a resurgence of focus on terrorism. This resulted in large part from the highly-publicized Christmas bombing attempt. The White House has mounted a continuing effort to show that it is focusing hard on the government's anti-terrorism efforts. These efforts, according the White House blog, include "....the immediate ordering of reforms and corrective steps both today and in the days since this incident." The blog goes on to indicate that these efforts are in recognition of the urgency signaled by the incident.

Meanwhile, Republicans have responded -- perhaps inevitably -- with criticisms of White House efforts, including calls for even more dramatic efforts to slow down terrorism.

Some of this back and forth is a direct result of today's hot partisan environment. Anything individuals or entities of one political persuasion do is heavily scrutinized and almost instantly criticized by those of the other political persuasion. This environment has led to politically-sensitive, instant, strong reactions to almost any news event or political happening.



Is this overreaction? The former ABC talk show host Ted Koppel seems to believe this is the case. Koppel said recently on BBC that this overreaction has played into the hands of al Qaeda.

We have not asked the American public if they believe the administration has overreacted to the December bombing incident. We have also not asked the American public if they believe that Republicans have overreacted in their criticism of the administration's reaction.

We do -- however -- have some indirect data on these issues.

At the moment, it appears the American people are moving along fairly undisturbed by the Christmas bombing attempt. Americans do not appear to have become unduly terrified by the prospect of a new terror attack.

There has been a mild uptick in the percent of Americans mentioning "terrorism" or "national security" as the nation's most important problem. That measure is at 8% now. This is up from previous months, when the percent mentioning terrorism has been in the low single-digits. But the 8% is well below other upticks since 9/11. The perception that terrorism is the nation's top problem falls well below issues like the economy.

Personal worry about being the victim of a terrorist attack is basically unchanged. As my colleague Lydia Saad said in her review of the data: "Americans' current level of anxiety about terrorism is close to the average seen on this Gallup measure since Sept. 11, 2001 (which is 41%)."

Separately, 70% of air travelers say they are no more concerned about their safety as a result of the Christmas bombing attempt.

As noted, these are indirect measures. Pew Research recently asked a few more specific questions. One result showed that Americans have become more negative in response to this question, compared to November: "How well do you think the U.S. government is doing in reducing the threat of terrorism?".

Given a choice, the Pew data showed that Americans have also become more likely to say the "government's anti-terrorism policies have not gone far enough to adequately protect the country" than they are to say that the government's anti-terrorism policies have "gone too far in restricting the average person's civil liberties."

There has been, however, only minimal change when Americans were asked: "In general, how well to you think the U.S. government is doing in reducing the threat of terrorism?"

All in all, some mixed results. Some indication that Americans perceive the aborted Christmas attack as an sign that terrorists can still strike. And that the government should be doing more, even at the cost of civil liberties. But not much change in several other more basic indicators: personal worry about terrorism, terrorism as the nation's top problem, or ratings of government efforts to reduce terrorism.

Politically, we note that President Obama's approval rating on handling terrorism has ticked up. Terrorism is the only one of four specific areas which is up, rather than down. This would suggest that Obama's response, warranted by events or not, may have helped him politically.

Obama's overall approval rating has been tracking fairly steady since the event. Certainly no sign that Obama has taken a significant hit as a result. Nor a sign of any type of a rally effect.

The lesson learned from the Christmas incident is one that I've seen in years past. Americans are often significantly less affected or perturbed by news events than news media coverage and political reaction would suggest. And/or, of course, perhaps the quick reaction and heavy media focus on the Christmas incident actually in and of themselves helped quell Americans' fears.