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Huckabee, Obama Gain at National Level

Huckabee, Obama Gain at National Level

Huckabee leads; Obama moves into tie with Clinton

PRINCETON, NJ -- Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama -- both winners in last week's Iowa caucuses -- have gained support at the national level among those who identify with their respective parties. Huckabee now has a 5-percentage point advantage in the Republican race nationally, while Obama is tied with Hillary Clinton.

These results are from the latest USA Today/Gallup poll of national adults, conducted Jan. 4-6, 2008. All interviews were conducted following Huckabee's and Obama's wins in Iowa last Thursday night. Results from Tuesday's New Hampshire primary may produce still further changes in the national standing of the candidates.

Among Republicans, Huckabee has jumped from 16% of the vote in December 2007 to 25% as of this polling. Coupled with the loss of support for former front-runner Rudy Giuliani, Huckabee is now the leader among Republicans nationally, with a 5-point lead over Giuliani and 6-point lead over John McCain (who has gained 5 points since December). Mitt Romney, after failing to win in Iowa, is now in fifth place nationally with just 9% of the vote, which is his lowest percentage since early October.

On the Democratic side, Iowa winner Obama has moved into a tie with Clinton. Both now have 33% of the vote. This represents a 6-point gain since December 2007 for Obama and a 12-point loss for Clinton. John Edwards has gained 5 points since December, moving from 15% to 20% support among Democrats. Edwards is now closer to the front-runner among Democrats than he has been at any point since Gallup began tracking the Democratic race more than a year ago. This is also the first time since June that Clinton has not held a statistically significant lead over the rest of her competitors. She had led by 27 points as recently as mid-November.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,023 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 4-6, 2008. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 423 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 499 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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