Gallup's July update on American attitudes toward the deportation of immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally provides a great example of the complexity of public opinion on the issues of the day. Our polling found that 70% of Americans favored providing such immigrants the chance to become U.S. citizens if they meet certain requirements. At the same time, a substantial proportion of the population (47%) also favored deporting this group of immigrants.
A number of polls conducted since then confirm a basic conclusion: Public opinion on a complex issue like deportation defies simple summarization.
I’ve been looking at six recent polls asking a general question about deportation, all using probability-based sampling. The polls framed the issue in slightly different ways: “mass deportation of undocumented immigrants,” “deporting all immigrants who are here illegally,” “deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally,” “deporting all immigrants living in the United States illegally,” and so on.
- Two of these polls produced results similar to Gallup’s findings from last summer, with support for and opposition to deportation about evenly split.
- Three polls showed a six- to 13-percentage-point margin in favor of deportation.
- The sixth poll, a clear outlier, found a significantly larger 34-point margin of support, with 66% in favor and 32% opposed.
All of these surveys were conducted in January 2025 and measured opinions among either national adults or national registered voters. Obviously, policymakers (and interested citizens) contemplating these results could be excused for wondering just what they tell us about public opinion on this important and timely topic. An analyst could isolate two of the polls and conclude that Americans’ support for deportation is divided, while another analyst could isolate two different polls and conclude there is strong support for deportation. The range of responses is large enough that it clearly suggests the public has not come to a unified judgment on the issue.
Explanations for Variations in Responses When Asking About the Same Issue
Surveys are designed to provide an estimate of the attitudes of the underlying sampled population (in this case, either all national adults or all registered voters). In general, we would expect routine survey samples conducted at roughly the same time to provide similar estimates of attitudes about a specific topic. That is not what we observe in the case of deportation.
- When we are faced with variations in survey results measuring the same issue, one of the first things to look at is question wording. For example, the poll showing the highest level of support for deportation (66%) asked about “deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally.” This question did not use modifiers such as “all,” “mass” or “millions,” which were included in other polls. This wording could have elicited more support because it did not refer to the scope of such an operation for respondents.
- The same type of analysis can be applied to other subtle wording differences across the deportation questions. Although we can develop some informed hypotheses about the effect of wording differences, we need experimental research to determine if they are in fact a cause of the differing results. Without such evidence, we can’t know for sure.
- Beyond wording, the broader survey context -- the questions respondents are asked before they reach the deportation question -- could have influenced the responses measured across surveys. And there are house and mode effects -- differences in results based on the ways in which differing organizations conduct surveys, and the modes respondents use to answer questions, mainly responding to a live interviewer versus answering questions online. But again, pinpointing such effects requires controlled experiments which, at this point, we don’t have.[1]
- There is also the very real possibility that the differences reflect instability in the attitudes of the underlying population. The public may recognize that, while deporting individuals who are here illegally seems straightforward in theory, the reality is far more complex. This means opinions on deportation as a general concept can vary because members of the population, from survey to survey, have differing aspects of the deportation situation in mind when they respond. The wide differences in responses when questions specifically direct the respondent to focus on certain circumstances in which deportation can take place (as we will see shortly) support this idea.
Overall, the ease with which Americans’ opinions can shift across surveys underscores the complexity of the issue and cautions us to put any single question result into context.
Questions That Provide More Detail About Deportation
As I noted above, polls whose questions include details about the circumstances of deportation produce significant differences in support.
- Support for deportation reaches high majority levels when the question specifies that those being deported have criminal records.
- Support drops to its lowest levels when the question specifies that deportation would separate individuals from their children and families, or would involve immigrants who came to the country illegally as children or immigrants who have been here a long time with jobs and no criminal record.
Clearly, when Americans think about deportation, they can variously take into account the range of characteristics of such immigrants, variations in their circumstances, and the varying ways in which they could be sent home. The public thus holds a set of differing views about deportation based on circumstances. (This is similar to Americans’ views on another hot-button issue, abortion, which are highly complex and variable, depending on how the specific circumstances involved are described to them.)
Support for Allowing Those in the U.S. Illegally to Remain by Meeting Certain Requirements
Gallup and other organizations have consistently over the years found support for allowing this group of immigrants to remain in the country if they meet certain requirements. This support is evident whether the question is asked independently, as Gallup did last summer, or in a forced-choice scenario, where Americans consistently favor a pathway to legal status over immediate deportation.
My analysis of Gallup data last year showed that a not-insignificant proportion of Americans can hold both of these attitudes simultaneously -- support for deporting such immigrants and support for allowing them to have a way to remain in this country. While Americans want some of these immigrants deported, they just as clearly favor allowing others to remain by following a well-defined process to gain new legal status.
Summarizing Public Opinion on Deportation
As we have seen in this review, Americans have quite variable reactions when asked a general question about deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally. Some surveys show that the public supports the general idea that such people should be sent back, while others show more divided opinions. Americans appear to favor a selective or “surgical” approach to deportation, with clear support for sending back immigrants with criminal records, and much lower support for deporting those with families who would be left behind. These attitudes are coupled with clear majority support for developing a practical pathway for certain immigrants to remain if they meet specific requirements.
The wide range in American attitudes toward deportation reflects an apparent recognition that the situations of the estimated 11 million immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally vary widely and that not all can be or should be treated in the same way.
Additionally, Americans may recognize the practical issues involved in attempting to identify, detain and deport all of these estimated 11 million immigrants. Americans may also be taking into account the economic consequences of reducing available workers in industries where such immigrants provide a crucial part of the labor force. (Previous research shows that the majority of Americans want stronger efforts to stop immigrants from coming into this country illegally to begin with, including hiring more border patrol agents and building a wall along the border.)
In any case, public opinion on deportation is as complicated as the underlying challenges of deportation itself. The public is in essence saying, “Tell me more about the specifics” when asked a general question about deportation. And it is clear that such specifics can shift Americans’ views dramatically in the direction of stronger support and, in other instances, in the direction of stronger opposition.
Public opinion on this issue is particularly important at this time in our nation’s history as the Trump administration ratchets up its efforts to deport immigrants. If the administration, Congress and other policymakers take public opinion into account (as they should), they will have to develop a series of policies that come at the issue in different ways and from multiple angles.
[1] Gallup’s monthly GPSS surveys have the significant advantage of (since 2001) asking questions using the same wording, in the same context, in the same month of the year, thus controlling for many of these factors when analyzing trends over time.
