WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans have mixed expectations for what President-elect Donald Trump will accomplish in his second term, foreseeing success on seven policy goals while doubting he’ll achieve eight others.
Expectations are highest that Trump will control illegal immigration, which 68% of U.S. adults predict he’ll do. Smaller majorities believe he will reduce unemployment, keep the country safe from terrorism, improve the economy, keep the country out of war, cut people’s taxes or reduce the crime rate.
Conversely, majorities of Americans do not think Trump will heal political divisions in the country, improve the quality of the environment, improve the healthcare system, improve race relations, improve education, substantially reduce the federal budget deficit, improve conditions for minorities and the poor, or reduce the prices of groceries and other items.
The public is less clear in its outlook for Trump’s presidency on two issues -- improving the way the federal government works and increasing respect for the U.S. abroad. About half believe he will -- or he won’t -- accomplish either goal.
These results are from a Dec. 2-18 Gallup Poll in which 51% of Americans, slightly more than in December 2016, said they approve of the way Trump is handling the presidential transition.
Partisanship strongly influences Americans’ expectations for Trump’s accomplishments in his upcoming term.
- Majorities of Republicans -- ranging from 66% to 99% -- are optimistic he will achieve each of the 17 goals measured.
- Majorities of Democrats are skeptical about Trump’s prospects on each. But a third or more are positive he’ll achieve a few of his top-ranking issues, particularly controlling illegal immigration.
- Independents’ outlook is similar to the national average on all issues.
Trump II vs. Trump I
Gallup also measured Americans’ expectations for Trump during the 2016 transition period, asking about 16 of the 17 issues rated today -- all but reducing prices.
Far more Americans now than in 2016 believe Trump will keep the nation out of war, rising 17 percentage points to 55%. By contrast, in 2016, the majority (57%) doubted he would keep the country out of war. This shift likely reflects Trump’s claims that the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas wars would not have occurred had he been president, that he will end both quickly, and that he started “no new wars” in his first term.
In addition, belief that he will control illegal immigration has increased nine points since 2016, and there has been an eight-point increase for reducing the crime rate and a six-point increase for improving race relations. Predictions for the latter still tilt negative, however.
Americans are less sure today than in 2016 that Trump will improve national conditions in the areas of healthcare and education, with the optimistic percentages slipping 12 and 10 points, respectively. As a result, whereas majorities of Americans were hopeful about Trump on these issues in 2016, the opposite is true today. There has also been a six-point decline to 33% in Trump’s rating for healing political divisions in the country.
Expectations for Trump in the other nine policy areas measured in both years haven’t changed materially. This includes the outlook for two goals Trump has prioritized by pledging to establish a department of government efficiency headed by American businessmen Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: improving the way the federal government works and reducing the federal budget deficit.
Trump vs. Previous Presidents
Gallup has measured Americans’ issue predictions during the transition period for all incoming presidents since Ronald Reagan in 1980, as well as for three presidents entering a second term: George W. Bush in January 2005, Barack Obama in 2012 and Trump in 2024.
Given differences in the specific issues rated for each, along with the number of issues measured, it is not possible to say precisely which president or president-elect inspired the most optimism about his upcoming term. However, Obama in 2008 stands out for earning the highest scores of all other presidents on eight of the 11 issues for which comparisons to Trump are available. That is by far the largest proportion of record scores received by any incoming president among the ratings reviewed for this report.
In the current poll, Trump earns the highest rating of incoming presidents on two issues -- controlling illegal immigration and reducing the crime rate. Other incoming or returning presidents, including Trump in 2016, had the top score on no more than one issue:
- George H.W. Bush in 1988 had the highest of five presidential measurements for keeping the nation out of war (70%).
- Confidence in 1992 that Bill Clinton would improve the healthcare system (64%) tied for first with Obama’s 2008 score. Gallup has asked the healthcare item about all presidents since Clinton.
- Before starting his second term in 2005, George W. Bush earned the highest score of all incoming and returning presidents since 9/11 for keeping the U.S. safe from terrorism (68%).
- Joe Biden’s 54% score in 2020 for improving race relations exceeds Trump’s in 2016 and 2024, as well as G.W. Bush’s in 2001. The item was not asked about Reagan, Clinton, G.H.W. Bush or Obama.
- The 46% of Americans in 2016 expecting Trump to substantially reduce the budget deficit effectively ties his 45% rating in 2024, but exceeds six other presidential ratings taken since Bush in 1988, most by a healthy margin.
See the accompanying PDF for the full issue-outlook trends for Trump and all prior presidents, plus detailed tabulations showing results by party ID and other subgroups for Trump’s current ratings.
Bottom Line
Americans have a modest outlook for what the second Trump administration might achieve, predicting success in about as many areas as they doubt it will occur. Still, they have notably high expectations for him with respect to controlling illegal immigration and reducing crime -- both relative to their expectations for him on other issues and historically. More Americans anticipate he’ll succeed in these domains than did so for any other evaluated president. And although confidence in Trump's ability to keep the nation out of war is not as pronounced as confidence in him on several other objectives, the sharp increase in Americans believing he’ll prevail in this could be important to fulfilling expectations for his second term.
Achieving one's goals may be the straight path to a strong presidential legacy, but making progress in areas where it is least expected could also have an impact. In this regard, improving national conditions in education, healthcare, the environment, race relations and public unity could serve as key objectives for Trump's second term.
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View complete question responses and trends (PDF download).
