WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More Americans approve (51%) than disapprove (44%) of the way Donald Trump is handling his presidential transition. That represents an improvement from his first presidential transition, when he received equally positive and negative ratings in December 2016 and then more negative than positive ratings in January 2017. Trump’s current transition ratings still rank well below those for other recent presidents-elect. All incoming presidents since Bill Clinton had transition approval ratings of at least 61%, with approval exceeding disapproval by 30 or more percentage points for each.
The latest results are based on a Dec. 2-18 Gallup poll. Transition approval ratings for Clinton, George W. Bush and Joe Biden ranged between 61% and 68%, while Barack Obama’s ratings were higher, ranging from 75% to 83%. No more than 33% of Americans disapproved of those presidents’ transition work.
In a December 2016 Gallup poll, Americans split evenly over Trump’s transition, with 48% each rating it positively and negatively. By the next reading in January 2017, more disapproved (51%) than approved (44%).
Historically, presidential transition approval ratings have not changed greatly between the initial rating, usually taken in November or December, and later measures taken closer to Inauguration Day in January. Some presidents-elect saw their presidential transition approval ratings improve slightly (Clinton, Obama and Biden) over time, while others (Bush and Trump) saw modest declines in theirs.
Republicans More Optimistic About Trump’s Second Transition
Compared with 2016, Trump’s improved ratings this year are primarily due to more positive ratings among Republicans. Ninety-seven percent of Republicans approve of the way he is handling his transition, compared with 86% in December 2016. Independents’ approval is essentially at the same level now (47%) as eight years ago (46%), while Democrats are less likely to approve now (10%) than they were then (17%).
Trump’s transition approval ratings among independents are much lower than those of other presidents-elect. No less than 59% of independents have approved of other incoming presidents’ transitions.
Trump’s ratings among Democrats are much lower than opposition party ratings in the past. Before 2016, about half of supporters of the opposition party approved of the way presidents-elect handled their transitions. This includes 50% of Republicans approving of Clinton’s transition, 46% of Democrats approving of Bush’s and 53% of Republicans approving of Obama’s. Recently, both Trump and Biden have been evaluated much more critically by the other party’s supporters, with Trump’s transition approval ratings below 20% and Biden’s just above that level.
Public Questions Quality of Trump Cabinet-Level Picks
Forty-five percent of U.S. adults rate Trump’s Cabinet-level appointments as “below average” (8%) or “poor” (37%), while 36% describe them as either “outstanding” (18%) or “above average” (18%). Another 16% say his selections are “average.”
Trump has already seen one of his appointees, Attorney General designate Matt Gaetz, withdraw over uncertainty as to whether a Republican-led Senate would confirm him. Several of Trump’s other picks, including Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for secretary of Health and Human Services, and Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, have drawn scrutiny over their past personal behavior, qualifications for the job or past policy positions.
Nevertheless, Americans’ ratings of Trump’s Cabinet choices are similar to what they were eight years ago. In 2017, 32% said Trump’s choices were outstanding or above average, 20% average, and 44% below average or poor. Slightly more now (37%) than in 2017 (32%) rate Trump’s picks as poor.
Americans rated the Cabinet-level choices of other presidents-elect more favorably than unfavorably. However, for Clinton, Bush and Obama, about four in 10 rated their picks as average.
Republicans are much more enthusiastic about Trump’s second-term Cabinet choices than they were about his first-term picks. Forty percent say his Cabinet choices are outstanding and 44% above average, compared with 21% and 38%, respectively, before his first term.
Democrats, who were widely critical of Trump’s first-term choices, are even more so now -- 1%, down from 6%, evaluate his choices as either outstanding or above average, while 78%, up from 64%, rate them as poor.
Independents’ views are similar now to what they were in 2017. Currently, 27% assess Trump’s Cabinet selections as outstanding (14%) or above average (13%), 23% as average, and 47% as either below average (11%) or poor (36%).
Trump’s picks are historically polarized -- no prior president’s Cabinet selections have been rated as positively by his own party’s supporters or as negatively by the other party’s supporters. Additionally, independents are much more negative toward Trump’s choices than they have been for those of other presidents-elect.
Bottom Line
More Americans approve than disapprove of the way Trump is handling his second presidential transition, a better review at this point than for the transition to his first term. That doesn’t appear to be because Americans think he has made better Cabinet choices, however, as the public rates his selections similarly to those for his first term. But his choices this year are more polarizing, with Republicans much more enthusiastic and Democrats much less enthusiastic than they were about Trump’s first-term appointments.
Trump’s transition approval ratings and his Cabinet choice ratings are both far less positive than those of other presidents-elect in the past three decades. Trump’s low transition approval ratings also portend lower early-term job approval ratings than other new presidents in what is typically a presidential honeymoon period. Clinton, Bush, Obama and Biden all began their terms with job approval comfortably above the majority level, albeit lower than their final transition approval ratings.
In contrast, Trump’s initial presidential job approval rating of 45% in January 2017, the lowest for a new president, essentially matched his transition approval rating from two weeks earlier (44%). Should Trump’s 2024 transition rating hold at its current level, he could see his first-ever majority job approval rating as president. Should it decline, he will likely begin his second term like his first, without a traditional presidential honeymoon.
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