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Gallup Daily: Presidential Preferences Remain in “the Zone”

Gallup Daily: Presidential Preferences Remain in “the Zone”

Presidential race has been highly stable for the last two weeks

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama wins the support of 46% of national registered voters interviewed in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from July 10-12, while John McCain is not far behind with 43%.

Today marks the 14th straight Gallup Poll Daily tracking report in which 46% to 48% of voters favor Obama, and between 42% and 44% favor McCain. This narrow zone has given Obama a continuous, but fairly slim, lead over the two-week period.

Obama also held a slim lead for most of June (averaging three percentage points), although he led by a six to seven point margin for three days at the start of June. The two candidates were tied for a brief period in late June, but the last time McCain held a significant lead over Obama was in early May. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) -- Lydia Saad

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from July 10-12, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,635 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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