PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update finds Barack Obama leading John McCain by 48% to 42% when registered voters are asked who they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.
Obama has typically held a modest advantage over McCain since early June. The six percentage point lead in the latest results, based on July 8-10 polling, ranks among the presumptive Democratic nominee's bigger leads, just one point shy of a high seven-point lead in June 7-9 polling. (To view the complete trend since Mar. 7, 2008, click here.)
In the last two weeks, Obama's share of the vote has ranged between 46% and 48%, while McCain's has ranged from 42% to 44%. So while preferences have not shifted dramatically, Obama enjoys a larger lead in the latest report because his support is now at the upper end of his recent range while McCain's is at the lower end of his.
The numbers for the last three individual nights of polling have been consistent -- with Obama's advantage over McCain ranging from four to seven points -- further reinforcing the notion that preferences at this point of the campaign are quite stable. -- Jeff Jones
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from July 8-10, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,661 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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