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Gallup Daily: Obama Leads 50% to 42%

Gallup Daily: Obama Leads 50% to 42%

Obama remains statistically ahead for 10th straight day

PRINCETON, NJ -- Barack Obama leads John McCain among registered voters across the country by a 50% to 42% margin in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 3-5, the 10th straight day in which Obama has held a statistically significant lead.


This 10-day stretch of a significant Obama lead is the longest since he became the presumptive nominee back in early June, and the longest for either candidate at any point in the campaign. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) Today's result includes interviewing conducted Friday through Sunday, after the Oct. 2 vice presidential debate between Gov. Sarah Palin and Sen. Joe Biden, and after Friday's passage of a revised economic rescue plan to help alleviate the Wall Street financial crisis.

The results suggest that neither of these events had a significant impact on voter preferences.

Looked at broadly, Obama's percent of the vote has been within a very narrow range of 48% to 50% over the last ten days, and McCain's has been within an equally narrow range of 42% of 44% over the same time period. These results suggest that aside from normal sampling error, the underlying dynamics of the race have become quite stable, and underscore the degree to which there has been little meaningful change in the race in well over a week.

The election has entered its final month, with the two remaining major campaign events being Tuesday night's presidential debate in Nashville, and the final presidential debate on Oct. 15 at Hofstra University. Early voting is now open in many states, meaning that for some voters, the election is already over. -- Frank Newport


(Click here to see how the race currently breaks down by demographic subgroup.)

Survey Methods

For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.

The general-election results are based on combined data from Oct. 3-5, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,744 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.

Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a landline telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell phone only).

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

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