GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The first day of spring comes in late March, but for true baseball fans, spring doesn't officially begin until the umpire yells, "Play Ball!" The start of a new baseball season brings with it the hopes of success for fans of every team, fresh young rookies hoping to make an impact, and this year, new ballparks in Philadelphia and San Diego to draw the fans.
The most recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted March 26-28, indicates that just 45% of Americans consider themselves to be baseball fans (including 9% who deem themselves to be "somewhat of a fan"). This is down from 51% last fall, when a Nov. 14-16 Gallup Poll (conducted a few weeks after the World Series) found higher levels of fan support. Fan support levels have been higher in other polls conducted in the spring in recent years.
| Are You a Fan of Professional Baseball, or
Not? (percentage saying "fan" or "somewhat of a fan") |
 |
Baseball no longer holds its historical place as America's favorite sport, a change that occurred long before the current controversy over steroids. Over the past four decades, football has clearly become the sport that Americans say they most enjoy watching, and in recent years basketball has also eclipsed baseball in popularity. In a December 2003 Gallup Poll Social Series on lifestyle, 37% of Americans preferred football as their favorite sport to watch, followed by basketball at 14% and baseball at 10%.
Public Favors Tough Steroid Testing for Ballplayers
The past winter was not a typical off-season for baseball. Seven players, including San Francisco Giants slugger Barry Bonds and the Yankees' Jason Giambi, were ordered to testify before a federal grand jury in California about their ties to a controversial nutritional supplements company. Four men, including the founder of Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO) were later indicted on federal drug charges, and are now awaiting trial.
All seven players were part of Major League Baseball's initial steroid testing plan last year, in which players were tested anonymously and without sanctions in an attempt to gauge the use of steroids in the sport. That study found an estimated 5% to 7% of players tested positive, resulting in the implementation of a new random testing plan for this season. The plan has earned criticism as being a weak effort from experts on the use of performance-enhancing drugs. A November 2003 Gallup Poll showed that one in three fans believe that at least half of all major league baseball players have taken steroids.
The March 26-28 poll found 91% of baseball fans want players to be tested for steroids and other performance-enhancing drugs. This is up from 86% in a June 2002 Gallup Poll and consistent with the findings of a similar Gallup Poll conducted in October 2003. Of the fans in the current year's poll, nearly half (44%) indicated that they would be unhappy if baseball's owners and the players' union balked at testing.
Fans Believe Bonds' Performance Was Enhanced
Probably the most well-known player implicated in the BALCO scandal has been Bonds, whose personal trainer and nutritional expert were indicted by the grand jury. Bonds has denied ever using any performance-enhancing drugs -- but skeptics have asked questions about his late-career surge in home runs and his dramatically more bulked-up appearance in recent years. Apparently, baseball fans also are skeptical of Bonds' claims -- the March 26-28 poll found 64% of baseball fans believe Bonds has probably used steroids.
This past weekend, the San Francisco Chronicle reported that drug-testing samples for the seven players in question apparently still exist, despite agreements between team owners and the union to destroy them as soon as possible after the results of all tests had been gathered. All seven players have consistently denied ever using steroids, but the California grand jury investigating the BALCO case has now requested that those samples be turned over for further analysis. This may answer the question of whether the public's perception that Bonds used steroids is correct.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,001 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 26-28, 2004. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of 469 baseball fans, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
41. Are you a fan of professional baseball, or not?
|
|
SOMEWHAT OF A FAN (vol.) |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2004 Mar 26-28 |
36 |
9 |
55 |
* |
|
2003 Nov 14-16 |
43 |
8 |
49 |
* |
|
2003 Oct 24-26 |
44 |
11 |
45 |
-- |
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
42 |
8 |
50 |
* |
|
2003 Jun 27-29 |
36 |
10 |
54 |
* |
|
2003 Jun 9-10 |
39 |
11 |
50 |
* |
|
2002 Nov 8-10 |
38 |
13 |
49 |
* |
|
2002 Aug 19-21 |
37 |
8 |
54 |
1 |
|
2002 Jul 26-28 |
37 |
10 |
53 |
* |
|
2002 Jun 7-8 |
36 |
16 |
48 |
-- |
|
2002 Mar 22-24 |
44 |
10 |
46 |
* |
|
2002 Jan 11-14 |
36 |
11 |
53 |
* |
|
2001 Nov 26-27 |
38 |
10 |
52 |
* |
|
2001 Nov 2-4 |
45 |
11 |
44 |
* |
|
2001 Jun 8-10 |
35 |
14 |
51 |
-- |
|
2001 Mar 26-28 |
46 |
10 |
44 |
* |
|
2000 May 5-7 |
35 |
11 |
54 |
-- |
|
2000 Apr 28-30 |
40 |
12 |
48 |
-- |
|
2000 Mar 30-Apr 2 |
45 |
10 |
45 |
-- |
|
1999 Nov 18-21 |
45 |
16 |
39 |
-- |
|
1999 Oct 21-24 |
37 |
10 |
53 |
-- |
|
1999 Jul 13-14 |
40 |
19 |
41 |
-- |
|
1999 Mar 19-21 |
34 |
15 |
51 |
-- |
|
1998 Oct 9-12 |
47 |
14 |
39 |
-- |
|
1998 Sep 14-15 |
45 |
18 |
37 |
-- |
|
1998 Jun 22-23 |
34 |
10 |
56 |
-- |
|
1996 Mar 15-17 |
38 |
10 |
52 |
-- |
|
1995 Oct 5-7 |
34 |
8 |
58 |
-- |
|
1995 Jul 7-9 |
35 |
13 |
52 |
-- |
|
1995 May 11-14 |
35 |
10 |
55 |
-- |
|
1995 Apr 17-19 |
32 |
9 |
59 |
-- |
|
1995 Feb 24-26 |
37 |
12 |
51 |
-- |
|
1995 Jan 16-18 |
37 |
8 |
55 |
-- |
|
1994 Oct 17-19 |
39 |
9 |
52 |
-- |
|
1994 Sep 6-7 |
35 |
11 |
54 |
-- |
|
1994 Aug 15-16 |
39 |
10 |
51 |
-- |
|
1994 Aug 8-9 |
35 |
20 |
45 |
-- |
|
1993 May 21-23 |
39 |
10 |
51 |
-- |
|
1993 Feb 12-14 |
44 |
7 |
49 |
-- |
|
(Vol.) volunteered response |
||||
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||
42.Should major league baseball players be tested for steroids or other performance enhancing drugs, or not?
BASED ON 469 BASEBALL FANS
|
Yes, should |
No, should not |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2004 Mar 26-28 |
91 |
9 |
* |
|
2003 Oct 24-26 |
92 |
7 |
1 |
|
2002 Jun 7-8 |
86 |
12 |
2 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||
43. If major league baseball players ARE NOT tested for steroids or other performance enhancing drugs, would you be upset, or not?
44. If major league baseball players ARE tested for steroids or other performance enhancing drugs, would you be upset, or not?
BASED ON 469 BASEBALL FANS
COMBINED RESPONSES (Q.42-44):
|
|
|
|
|
No |
|
|
2004 Mar 26-28 |
44% |
47 |
7 |
2 |
* |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||
45. Just your best guess, do you think Barry Bonds has probably used steroids, or not?
BASED ON 469 BASEBALL FANS
|
Yes, has |
No, has not |
No opinion |
|
|
2004 Mar 26-28 |
64% |
19 |
17 |