Americans Consider Global Warming Real, but Not Alarming

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Since taking office, President Bush seems to have rebuffed environmentalist concerns about global warming -- first by retracting his support for regulating carbon dioxide emissions at power plants and, more recently, by announcing the U.S. will not implement the limits on carbon dioxide emissions called for in the international Kyoto global warming treaty.

How concerned is the American public about the issue? Not terribly concerned, according to a special Gallup environmental survey conducted last month. Most Americans believe the effects of global warming are already occurring or likely to occur in their lifetime. They also believe the problem is caused by human activities, something scientists and politicians are still debating. However, barely one-third of the public predicts global warming will pose a serious threat to their way of life.

Global Warming Ranks Low Among Americans' Environmental Concerns
Gallup's March 5-7 poll asked respondents to characterize the amount they worry about 13 different environmental issues as either " a great deal," "a fair amount," "only a little" or "not at all." Only 33% of Americans told Gallup they personally worry about the "greenhouse effect" or global warming a great deal. Concern about damage to the Earth's ozone layer -- a related problem -- is somewhat higher, with 47% saying they worry a great deal about it. However, public concern about both of these ranks well below several other environmental issues rated in the survey, particularly water pollution, air pollution and toxic waste. Global warming ranks 12th out of the 13 issues tested, ahead of only "acid rain," while ozone damage ranks seventh.

Awareness Has Grown, but Not Concern
Gallup trends on this question dating back more than a decade show no long-term change in public concern about global warming. When Americans were first asked about the problem in 1989, 63% expressed some apprehension (including 35% who worried "a great deal" and 28% who worried "a fair amount") while 18% worried "only a little" and 12% "not at all." Today, precisely the same number -- 63% -- are apprehensive (including 33% who worry a great deal and 30% a fair amount) while 22% worry only a little and 13% do not worry about global warming at all. Public concern about damage to the Earth's ozone layer has also remained stable over the same period of time.

This constancy in public concern about global warming is interesting in light of the fact that Americans now claim to have a somewhat better understanding of the issue than was the case nine years ago. In January 1992, 53% of Americans said that they understood the issue either fairly well or very well, while today that percentage has risen to 69%. Still, even today, only 15% say they understand it very well.

Global Warming Hot Buttons
There is little controversy about the fact that the average temperature of the Earth has risen slightly over the past century -- thus, global warming per se is not in dispute. Rather, the global warming debate is over the seriousness of its impact and whether it is the result of human activities (specifically auto exhaust and other carbon dioxide emissions) or natural climactic changes. So where do Americans stand on these hot buttons?

• Six in ten Americans (61%) tell Gallup they believe increases in the Earth's temperature are due more to the effects of pollution from human activities while only 33% believe they are the result of natural changes in the environment not due to human activities.

• Along with Americans' increasing reported awareness of the global warming issue, Gallup has seen an increase in the percentage who believe the impact of global warming is already being felt -- 54% today, up from 48% in 1997. Another 17% today, as in 1997, believe the effects will be felt at some point in their lifetime. An additional 18% today (19% in 1997) believe the effects will be delayed until future generations. However, only a handful -- 7% today and 9% in 1997 -- believe the effects of global warming will never happen.

• There has been an even sharper increase in the percentage of Americans who are under the impression that scientists believe global warming is occurring -- 61% today, up from 48% in 1997.

• Consistent with this, a majority of Americans think that news reports of the seriousness of global warming are either correct (34%) or underestimated (32%), while only 30% believe they are exaggerated.

• Despite this, and despite widespread agreement among Americans that global warming will be evident in their lifetime, only 31% think global warming will pose a serious threat to themselves or their way of life; 66% disagree.

All this suggests that while Americans believe human-induced increases in the Earth's temperature will occur in their lifetime, they do not believe the effects will be so severe as to negatively impact mankind.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,060 adults, 18 years and older, conducted March 5-7, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

I'm going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. First, how much do you personally worry about … [RANDOM ORDER A-M]?

The "greenhouse effect" or global warming

 

	A great deal	A fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2001 Mar 5-7	33	30	22	13	2
2000 Apr 3-9	40	32	15	12	1
1999 Apr 13-14	34	34	18	12	2
1999 Mar 12-14	28	31	23	16	2
1997 Oct 27-28	24	26	29	17	4
1991 Apr 11-14	35	27	22	12	5
1990 Apr 5-8	30	27	20	16	6
1989 May 4-7	35	28	18	12	7

Damage to the Earth's ozone layer

 

	A great deal	A fair amount	Only a little	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2001 Mar 5-7	47	28	16	8	1
2000 Apr 3-9	49	29	14	7	1
1999 Apr 13-14	44	32	15	8	1
1997 Oct 27-28	33	27	25	13	2
1991 Apr 11-14	49	24	16	8	4
1990 Apr 5-8	43	28	15	10	4
1989 May 4-7	51	26	13	8	2

ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS SUMMARY TABLE

 

2001 Mar 5-7 (sorted by "a great deal")	A great deal	A fair amount	A great deal/ a fair amount
	%	%	%
Pollution of drinking water	64	24	88
Pollution of rivers, lakes, and reservoirs	58	29	87
Contamination of soil and water by toxic waste	58	27	85
Contamination of soil and water by radioactivity from nuclear facilities	49	22	71
Air pollution	48	34	82
The loss of natural habitat for wildlife	48	33	81
Damage to the Earth's ozone layer	47	28	75
The loss of tropical rain forests	44	32	76
Ocean and beach pollution	43	34	77
Extinction of plant and animal species	43	30	73
Urban sprawl and loss of open spaces	35	34	69
The "greenhouse effect" or global warming	33	30	63
Acid rain	28	28	56

Next, thinking about the issue of global warming, sometimes called the "greenhouse effect," how well do you feel you understand this issue -- would you say very well, fairly well, not very well, or not at all?

 

	Very well	Fairly well	Not very well	Not at all	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2001 Mar 5-7	15	54	24	6	1
1997 Nov 6-9	16	45	28	10	1
1992 Jan	11	42	22	22	3

Which of the following statements reflects your view of when the effects of global warming will begin to happen -- [ROTATED: they have already begun to happen, they will start happening within a few years, they will start happening within your lifetime, they will not happen within your lifetime, but they will affect future generations, (or) they will never happen]?

 

	Already begun	Within a few years	Within your lifetime	Not within lifetime, but affect future generations	Will never happen	No opinion
2001 Mar 5-7	54%	4	13	18	7	4
1997 Nov 6-9	48%	3	14	19	9	7

Just your impression, which one of the following statements do you think is most accurate -- most scientists believe that global warming is occurring, most scientists believe that global warming is NOT occurring, or most scientists are unsure about whether global warming is occurring or not?

 

	Is occurring	Is NOT occurring	Unsure if occurring or not	No opinion
2001 Mar 5-7	61%	4	30	5
1997 Nov 21-23	48%	7	39	6

Do you think that global warming will pose a serious threat to you or your way of life in your lifetime?

 

		Yes	No	No opinion
2001 Mar 5-7		31%	66	3
1997 Nov 6-9 ^		25%	69	6
^	Based on half sample

Thinking about what is said in the news, in your view is the seriousness of global warming -- [ROTATED: generally exaggerated, generally correct, or is it generally underestimated]?

 

		Generally exaggerated	Generally correct	Generally underestimated	No opinion
2001 Mar 5-7		30%	34	32	4
1997 Nov 6-9 ^		31%	34	27	8
^	Based on half sample

And from what you have heard or read, do you believe increases in the Earth's temperature over the last century are due more to -- [ROTATED: the effects of pollution from human activities (or) natural changes in the environment that are not due to human activities]?

 

	Human activities	Natural causes	No opinion
2001 Mar 5-7	61%	33	6