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Economic Confidence Index Holds Steady at -3

Economic Confidence Index Holds Steady at -3

by Rebecca Riffkin

Story Highlights

  • Economic Confidence Index averaged -3, level with the past five weeks
  • Ratings of current conditions more positive than outlook


WASHINGTON, D.C. -- In the U.S., Gallup's Economic Confidence Index averaged -3 for the week ending April 19. This is the same as the previous week, and consistent with the past five weeks. And, although it is down from where it was in early 2015, the index remains higher than scores throughout most of 2014 and the preceding years stretching back to the start of the recession.

Gallup's U.S> Economis Confidence Index -- Weekly Averages Since April 2014

In late 2014, the index increased to positive territory for the first time since daily polling began in 2008. This rise was most likely a result of dropping gas prices across the U.S. In late February, as gas prices began increasing, the index dipped slightly and fell back into negative territory, dropping to -2 for the week ending Feb. 22. Aside from increasing to +1 for one week in early March, the index has remained between -2 and -4 since the end of February.

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate the current economy and whether they think the economy is getting better or getting worse. Both of these sub-components were essentially unchanged from the previous week.

For the week ending April 19, 26% of Americans said the economy is "excellent" or "good," while 27% said it is "poor." This resulted in a current conditions score of -1, compared with 0 the week prior (based on 27% who rated the economy excellent or good, and 27% who rated the economy poor in the week ending April 12).

Since early March, at about the time gas prices stopped declining, Americans' economic outlook scores have been worse than their ratings of current economic conditions. Currently, 45% of Americans say the economy is "getting better" while 50% say it is "getting worse," resulting in an economic outlook score of -5, the same as the two weeks prior.

Economic Confidence Index Components -- Weekly Averages From April 2014

The index has been quite stable in recent weeks. From a longer-term perspective, it remains on the upper range of what Gallup has tracked since 2008.

The data in this article are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted April 13-19, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 3,553 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

Learn more about how Gallup Daily tracking works.

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