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Election 2016
Trump Not Yet Generating Evangelical Republican Zeal
Election 2016

Trump Not Yet Generating Evangelical Republican Zeal

Trump Not Yet Generating Evangelical Republican Zeal

Story Highlights

  • Trump's appeal to white Republicans is similar regardless of religiosity
  • In contrast, Ted Cruz's appeal was highest among the highly religious
  • Trump made special appeal to this group last week

PRINCETON, N.J. -- Highly religious white Protestant Republicans, a core group whose support presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump sought last week, are slightly more positive about Trump now than they were from February to May. However, this group remains no more likely to view Trump favorably than are white Protestant Republicans who are moderately or not religious. In contrast, while he was still in the race, former candidate Ted Cruz's appeal was significantly higher among highly religious members of this group than among those who were less religious.

Non-Hispanic White Protestant Republicans' Views of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, by Religiosity
Highly religious Moderately religious Not religious
% % %
Ted Cruz (Feb. 1-May 3, 2016) 63 48 43
Donald Trump (Feb. 1-May 31, 2016) 57 70 64
Donald Trump (June 1-22, 2016) 66 73 65
Gallup U.S. Daily

These differences in attitudes toward the candidates are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted from February through May and June 1-22. Gallup classifies Americans as highly religious, moderately religious or not religious based on their self-reports of whether religion is important to them and how frequently they attend religious services.

Trump clearly considers evangelicals to be an important target for his presidential campaign. Last week, he met with nearly 1,000 Christian evangelical leaders in New York, with the presumed objective of shoring up his support and, ultimately, turnout among that group. He released a photo of himself and Christian conservative leader Jerry Falwell, Jr.; took a swipe at Hillary Clinton's religiousness, saying, "We don't know anything about Hillary in terms of religion"; and appointed a 21-person evangelical advisory board.

There is no universally agreed-upon definition of exactly who is and who is not an "evangelical," but the label typically refers to individuals who are highly religious and identify with a non-Catholic Christian (Protestant) faith. White Protestants who are highly religious are particularly important in a political context, because black Americans' views of the candidates appear to be more related to their race than their religiosity. For example, about two-thirds or more of blacks have positive opinions of Clinton regardless of their religiosity, and only 10% in any of the three religious categories view Trump favorably.

Highly religious white Americans skew Republican, but some of this group are Democrats, and thus are unlikely to vote for Trump. Therefore, the data on highly religious white Protestant Republicans serve as a good representation of evangelicals as they are usually considered. And, as seen, while white Republican Protestants overall have positive opinions of Trump, their opinions are broadly similar, regardless of religiosity.

In short, among Protestants -- once partisanship and race are taken into account -- religiosity doesn't appear to make much of a difference in views of Trump. This stands in contrast to this group's views of Cruz earlier this year, when he was still an active candidate for the GOP nomination. At that point, white Protestant Republicans who were highly religious were significantly more positive about Cruz than were those who were either moderately or not religious.

Implications

Based on personality, history and other factors, it's not clear whether Trump will ever generate the type of differentially strong appeal among evangelicals as was the case for Cruz. But, in terms of sheer numbers alone -- 54% of white Protestant Republicans are highly religious -- if there is a way for Trump to increase his image and support among this group, it would appear to have significant upside potential for his campaign.

Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted June 1-22, 2016, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 11,170 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the total sample of 2,630 white Protestant Republicans, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 60% cellphone respondents and 40% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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Gallup https://news.gallup.com/poll/193166/trump-not-yet-generating-evangelical-republican-zeal.aspx
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