Public Grows More Pessimistic About U.S. Crime

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- Despite recently released government statistics showing crime is down in the United States -- or at worst, holding steady at record low levels -- Gallup's annual Crime Poll finds an increase in public pessimism about the nation's crime problem compared with a year ago. These perceptions seem to be focused on conventional crime, as Americans' fear of being the victim of terrorism shows no change since 2004. At the same time, the Oct. 13-16 survey gives little indication that Americans are more concerned about their personal safety.

Close to half of Americans (49%) now describe the nation's crime problem as either "extremely" or "very" serious. This is up slightly from 42% last year. Fifty percent rate the problem as either "moderately" or "not too" serious while less than 1% say it is "not at all serious."

The percentage perceiving more crime in the country than there was a year ago has increased more sharply, from 53% in October 2004 to 67% today.

Perpetually Pessimistic, But to Varying Degrees

Since instituting this measure in 1989, Gallup has almost always found more Americans believing that U.S. crime is on the rise, even though federal statistics have shown property crimes declining since the 1970s, and violent crimes declining since about 1995.

Just a few years ago, the public did start to take notice of the striking decline in crime. Between 1996 and 1997, the percentage of Americans perceiving that crime was increasing fell from 71% to 64%. By 2001 it reached the low point in Gallup records of 41% -- the only year that Gallup has found optimists outnumbering pessimists.

The next year, in 2002, Gallup recorded a sharp spike in negative perceptions about the national crime rate (rising to 62%), although this is most likely explained by the widely publicized Washington, D.C.-area sniper shootings that were going on at the time. Since then, it is less clear why the relatively higher levels of concern recorded in 2002 would be maintained, or why pessimism about national crime would increase again this year after declining somewhat in 2004.

Ratings of Local Area Crime Also Worse

As is typical with many perceptions (including education, government, and drugs), Americans have more positive perceptions of their local areas than of the nation as a whole when rating crime. Only 12% say that crime in the area where they live is extremely or very serious, but this was 8% last year -- a small but statistically significant change.

Similar to perceptions about the crime trend nationally, more Americans than last year also believe that crime is up locally. Close to half (47%) now say there is more crime in their areas than there was a year ago, up from 37% who perceived this in 2004.

Mixed Indications of Trend in Personal Fear

Gallup's Crime Poll includes two measures of Americans' personal fears about being victimized by crime. A long-term trend question (first asked in 1965) asks respondents whether there is anywhere within a mile of their homes where they would be afraid to walk alone at night. The other is a more recent trend (started in 2000), asking Americans the degree to which they fear being the victim of several specific types of crime.

The long-term trend finds a slight increase since last year in the percentage of Americans feeling unsafe near their homes: 38% today, vs. 32% in 2004.

However, over the same period, Gallup's inventory of concerns about specific types of crime shows no change. Only minor, and not statistically significant shifts, are seen in the percentage of Americans worried about each type of crime.

Crime Down, So Why Not Fear?

The two primary sources of federal statistics on crime are the FBI and the U.S. Justice Department. In late September the Justice Department, which bases its conclusions on a nationally representative survey of 42,000 households, reported that no significant changes in crime were observed between 2003 and 2004. The report said, "Violent and property crime rates in 2004 remained at the lowest levels since the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) first conducted its annual National Criminal Victimization Survey in 1973."

The FBI, which relies on the actual number of crimes reported to law enforcement agencies nationwide, has a slightly different conclusion, saying that violent crime declined 2.2% last year, and property crime declined 2.1%.

Given this encouraging data, and without any high-profile national crime incidents to point to, it is unclear why Americans would show greater concern today about crime than they did a year ago. Not only have Americans' levels of fear about being the victim of specific types of conventional crime not changed, but their fears of terrorism have also held steady. As noted, 38% now say they worry frequently or occasionally about this, compared with 39% in 2004.

Also, a separate Gallup measure of public concern about terrorism found 47% in July -- identical to the figure from last October -- saying they were "very" or "somewhat" worried about themselves or a family member becoming a victim of terrorism. That is slightly higher than the 41% recorded in August 2003, but still lower than the 59% recorded shortly after the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001.

Partisanship can often be a factor in Americans' ratings of seemingly non-partisan aspects of the country such as the economy. And with President Bush's approval rating down to 39% in this poll, one has to question whether the more negative ratings of crime could be due to expanding criticism of the president. (Last year at this time, 48% approved of the job Bush was doing). However, partisanship does not appear to be the cause.

There is little difference between 2004 and today in perceptions of crime among Democrats or those who disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president. A high proportion of these groups were pessimistic in 2004 about the national crime rate, and they continue to be negative today. A much greater increase in pessimism about crime comes from Republicans and those who approve of the job Bush is doing as president.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 13-16, 2005. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Q.11-12 ROTATED

11. Is there more crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?

12. Is there more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago, or less?

13. Is there any area near where you live -- that is, within a mile -- where you would be afraid to walk alone at night?

14. Overall, how would you describe the problem of crime [ROTATED: in the United States/in the area where you live] -- is it extremely serious, very serious, moderately serious, not too serious, or not serious at all?

A. In the United States

B. In the area where you live

12. How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?