GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The seeds for Hamas' landslide victory in Wednesday's Palestinian elections can be seen in polling Gallup conducted in the Palestinian territories just a few weeks earlier. Though everyone from Palestinian leaders to President Bush to the Israeli Knesset has been surprised by the election results, Gallup found widespread Palestinian discontent with official corruption, the lack of job creation, and general incompetence that can easily explain the ouster of Fatah.
At the same time, Gallup finds continued Palestinian support for the peace process with Israel and a preference for negotiation rather than terrorism, raising questions about just what kind of mandate Hamas will have for its more militant approach.
The Gallup Organization sponsored a nationally representative survey of 1,000 Palestinians aged 15 and older living in the West Bank, the Gaza Strip, and East Jerusalem as part of its Gallup World Poll. In-person interviews were conducted from Dec. 26, 2005, through Jan. 8, 2006.
Palestinians were asked more than 200 questions concerning their personal lifestyles and well-being, their religious commitment and values, their assessments of political leaders and foreign countries, and their views on achieving self-determination and peace with Israel.
The election of Hamas does not appear to be linked to a rejection of the peace process by the Palestinians, or to be a mandate for attacks against Israel.
- The majority of Palestinians think the cease-fire with Israel should be extended in 2006 if both sides agree to it (51%). Only 34% would not extend it.
- Nearly two-thirds of Palestinians say they support the peace process with the Israelis: 26% strongly support it and 39% moderately support it; only 30% oppose it. Current views on this are similar to where they stood six years ago.
- When asked which approach to achieving self-determination for their people they prefer, the majority (54%) favors "mostly nonviolent forms of resistance and negotiation"; only half as many (28%) favor "mostly armed struggle and military solutions."
Dissatisfaction with both government corruption and the general performance of government appear to be strong motivators behind the ouster of the incumbent Fatah Party.
- Fifty-six percent of Palestinians said they disapprove of the Palestinian leadership under Fatah; only 35% approve.
- Only 37% said they have confidence in their local government; 59% do not.
- Eighty percent are dissatisfied with the control of crime and corruption in the Palestinian territories.
- 79% believe corruption is widespread in the Palestinian government.
General dissatisfaction with the state of affairs in Palestine was also running very high:
- Half of Palestinians (51%) rate current conditions in Palestine in the worst possible terms (0 to 3 on a scale of 0 to 10). Only 8% rate them in highly positive terms (7 to 10). This is much worse than their current perceptions of conditions five years ago. Their retrospective view of conditions five years ago is more positive than negative, by a 31% (7 to 10 rating) to 20% (0 to 3 rating) margin.
- Palestinians are highly negative about economic conditions in the territories. And while they may tag Israel with much of the blame for that, Palestinians also direct significant criticism to their local leaders for failing to improve the situation. Palestinians are as dissatisfied with "efforts to increase the number and quality of jobs in Palestine" as they are with corruption: 81% are dissatisfied; only 16% are satisfied.
Hamas is not likely to impose conservative Islamic law without significant public resistance.
- While a majority of Palestinians would like to see religious leaders play some role in forming national and family laws, majorities reject such leaders' participation in foreign policy and other areas. Most would restrict religious leaders to an advisory role, rather than giving them a direct role in policymaking.
- There is broad support for women's rights among Palestinians. Two-thirds (68%) believe women should have the same rights that men have; 85% believe women should have an unrestricted right to vote.
To the extent that Fatah was viewed as the United States' and Israel's choice to win the election (Hamas tried to exploit this with banners asking, "If America and Israel say no to Hamas, what do you say?"), this connection may have undermined support for Fatah. (Late-breaking news that the United States had funded Palestinian social projects to aid Fatah's chances could have contributed to this.)
- Palestinians are widely hostile to U.S. leadership -- only 14% say they approve of the leadership of the United States.
- More than four in five Palestinians (82%) have a "very unfavorable" opinion of President Bush, substantially higher than the 52% of Palestinians who felt this way about President Clinton six years ago.
Survey Methods
These results are based on face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Palestinians, aged 15 and older, conducted Dec. 26, 2005, through Jan. 8, 2006. Respondents were interviewed in 60 sampling points throughout the West Bank (including East Jerusalem) and Gaza Strip. Households were selected at random, and respondents within households were chosen at random according to Kish tables.
For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
