Majority in U.S. See COVID-19 Disruption Well Into 2021

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More than half of Americans, 53%, now see the disruption due to COVID-19 lasting past the middle of 2021, up from 33% who said the same in late December. This is largely due to a shift away from perceptions that the disruption would be over by mid-year, with 37% of the U.S. public now saying the situation will have improved by then -- a substantial drop from the 55% who previously said so. Relatively few Americans expect the disruption to last a few more months or less.

These data come from the latest Gallup Panel survey conducted Jan. 25-31, as the government's vaccine rollout was criticized for being slow and disorganized and as details emerged about the spread of new variants of the disease in the U.S. Amid these developments, all key demographic subgroups of Americans have become more likely to predict disruption will continue past the middle of this year.

Currently, adults aged 30 to 49, Democrats and non-White Americans are among the subgroups most likely to say the disruption will last longer than mid-2021. Alternatively, Republicans and those aged 65 and older show less pessimism about the length of the pandemic-related disruption.

	A few more weeks	A few more months	Through the first half of 2021	Longer than that
	%	%	%	%
U.S. adults	2	8	37	53
Age
18-29	2	5	39	55
30-49	1	6	36	57
50-64	4	10	36	51
65+	1	11	41	47
Race/Ethnicity
White Americans	2	9	37	51
Non-White Americans	1	5	37	57
Party
Democrats	0	3	40	56
Independents	3	10	33	54
Republicans	3	13	37	47
Satisfaction with vaccine rollout
Very dissatisfied	2	4	27	68
Dissatisfied	1	6	40	53
Satisfied	3	13	40	44
Very satisfied	4	14	40	42
Gallup Panel, Jan. 25-31, 2021

People's outlook for disruption is also strongly related to their evaluation of how well the U.S. vaccination program is going. Sixty-eight percent of those who are "very dissatisfied" with the vaccine rollout say the disruption due to COVID-19 will last past mid-2021, compared with 42% of those who are "very satisfied" with vaccination efforts.

Americans' Perception of the Trajectory of COVID-19 Situation Improves

At the same time that more Americans predict the disruption due to COVID-19 will last longer, their perception of the current trajectory of the crisis has improved. The percentage saying the coronavirus situation is getting worse has dropped from 63% to 39%. Meanwhile, the percentages saying it is improving or is staying the same have both increased.

Gallup has previously noted that Americans' perception of the trajectory of the COVID-19 situation shows a meaningful relationship with changes in reported numbers of daily new cases. There was a decrease in COVID-19 infections between late December and late January, potentially contributing to increased optimism.

Optimism about the COVID-19 situation is up among all key demographic groups. But one of the largest increases is among Democrats, with 34% saying the situation is getting better, compared with 9% who said the same in late December. At the same time, the percentage of independents seeing improvement rose from 17% to 30%, while Republicans' views stayed about the same at just over 30%.

	Dec 2020	Jan 2021	Change
	%	%	pct. pts.
Getting a lot/a little worse
Democrats	83	49	-34
Independents	58	37	-21
Republicans	38	27	-11
Staying about the same
Democrats	8	17	+9
Independents	25	34	+9
Republicans	32	39	+7
Getting a little/a lot better
Democrats	9	34	+25
Independents	17	30	+13
Republicans	31	35	+4
Gallup Panel

As with estimates of the length of COVID-19-related disruption, those who are most dissatisfied with the vaccine rollout are also among the most likely to be pessimistic about the trajectory of the situation. Among those who are very dissatisfied with the vaccine rollout, 18% say the situation is improving, while 57% report it is getting worse. Alternatively, among those who are very satisfied with the vaccine rollout, 59% say the situation is improving and 16% say it is getting worse.

	Getting a lot/a little worse	Staying about the same	Getting a little/a lot better
	%	%	%
U.S. adults	39	28	33
Age
18-29	38	28	34
30-49	38	32	30
50-64	37	28	35
65+	45	22	33
Race/Ethnicity
White Americans	36	30	34
Non-White Americans	46	24	30
Party
Democrats	49	17	34
Independents	37	34	30
Republicans	27	39	35
Satisfaction with vaccine rollout
Very dissatisfied	57	25	18
Dissatisfied	42	26	32
Satisfied	25	34	41
Very satisfied	16	26	59
Gallup Panel, Jan. 25-31, 2021

There are additional differences in levels of optimism by both age and race/ethnicity. Non-White Americans and those aged 65 and older are among the least optimistic subgroups, with similar views on the trajectory of the pandemic. Forty-six percent of Non-White Americans and 45% of those aged 65 and older say the situation is getting worse.

Americans' Perception of Level of Disruption Holds Steady

Though there have been substantial changes in Americans' views of how long the pandemic will last and the trajectory of the COVID-19 situation, their views of the disruption it has had on their lives remain steady. Sixty-nine percent of Americans say they have experienced a "great deal" or "fair amount" of disruption in their lives due to COVID-19. There has been little change in the percentage of Americans saying their lives have been disrupted by COVID-19 since June of last year.

Bottom Line

Americans have become both more pessimistic about how long the disruption caused by COVID-19 will last and more optimistic about the overall trajectory of the situation. These attitudes appear to reflect Americans' recognition that infection rates are declining but that the vaccine rollout has been slower than hoped. Indeed, health officials were revising their predictions for widespread public vaccination to occur by late summer or early fall, though last week's announcement of the government purchasing enough doses to vaccinate 300 million Americans may make officials more optimistic that it could be accomplished earlier.

The Biden administration has announced substantial changes to the vaccination program in the U.S. in an effort to streamline the process and vaccinate more Americans more quickly. Doing so is likely key to improving Americans' attitudes on when the disruption due to COVID-19 will end.

Learn more about how the Gallup Panel works.