GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The American public is more optimistic now than at any time over the last two years that peace in the Middle East may be in sight. At the same time, despite the pending arrival in the Middle East of American Secretary of State Madeleine Albright on a four-day ''stock-taking'' trip, less than half of Americans say that helping achieve peace in the Middle East should be a very important U.S. foreign policy goal. The majority of Americans say that the U.S. should adopt a hands-off role and let Israel and the Palestinians solve their own problems.
Development of Peaceful Solution to Middle East Situation
Only Moderately Important Goal for U.S.
In a recent Gallup poll, Americans were asked how important solving
each of three different international disputes should be as foreign
policy goals of the U.S. Forty-one percent said that developing a
peaceful solution to the Palestinian/Israeli situation should be a
very important goal for the U.S., with another 41% saying it should
be a somewhat important goal. That can be contrasted with the 44%
who said that solving the situation in Kosovo should be a very
important foreign policy goal, and the 23% who said the same about
the situation in Northern Ireland.
Public interest in resolving the Middle East problem is slightly lower today than when the same question was asked in March of 1991; 41% now rate it a very important goal, compared to 46% in 1991.
Additionally, despite the historic role of the U.S. in helping broker peace in the Middle East, including the Camp David accords in the Carter administration, and Clinton administration's involvement in the recent Wye River accords, the Americans public is not particularly enthusiastic about the U.S. playing a forceful role in supervising such agreements. In response to a direct question about the Wye River peace accords, only 31% of the U.S. public say that the U.S. should "put pressure on Israel and the Arabs to implement the terms of that agreement." Over twice as many -- 66% -- said that the U.S. should leave conflicts over the implementation up to Israel and the Arabs to settle on their own.
Americans More Optimistic
Still, the Wye River accords, perhaps coupled with the recent
election of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak, seem to have
increased optimism among Americans about the chances for peace in
the troubled region. Forty-nine percent of Americans now answer in
the affirmative when asked, "Do you think there will or will not
come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle
their differences and live in peace?" As recently as last December,
only 40% answered yes to the same question, up from 36% in August
of 1997.
Initial reads on the image of Mr. Barak among Americans show that while he is not very well known, he is seen more positively than negatively by those who do have an opinion of him. Twenty-six percent have a favorable opinion of him, 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him, while the rest -- about 60% -- say they have never heard of him or don't now enough about him to have an opinion. Barak's predecessor, Benjamin Netanyahu, also had a more favorable than unfavorable image in a poll taken in May, before he left office. Both Barak and Netanyahu's images can be contrasted with the more negative opinions that Americans have of Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, who in a May poll was seen in an unfavorable light by 44% of those polled, compared to only 26% who had a favorable opinion.
Consistent with public attitudes toward the leaders on each side in the Arab-Israeli conflict, additional polling shows that Americans continue to be more sympathetic to Israel than to the Palestinian Arabs, although many Americans don't favor either side. When asked, "In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs?", 43% of Americans choose Israel, while only 12% choose the Palestinians. The rest say that their sympathies are with both, with neither, or that they have no opinion on the matter. This question has been asked since 1988, and -- although the percentages have varied considerably -- the American public has always come down more on the side of Israel than the Palestinians.
Despite their basic sympathies for Israel, about four out of ten Americans favor a decrease in both economic and military aid to the country, and a similar percentage suggest that U.S. aid to Israel should remain at the current level.
Survey Methods
The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 1,021 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted July 22-25, 1999. For results based on this sample, one
can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error
attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus
3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
As far as you are concerned, should the development of a peaceful solution to [INSERT ITEM, ROTATE START] be a very important foreign policy goal of the United States, a somewhat important goal, not too important, or not an important goal at all? Next, how about a peaceful solution to [INSERT NEXT ITEM]?
| Very important | Somewhat important | Not too important | Not important | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| a. The Palestinian/Israeli situation in the Middle East | |||||
| 99 Jul 22-25 | 41% | 41% | 9% | 6% | 3% |
| 93 Sep 10-12 | 41 | 36 | 11 | 8 | 4 |
| 91 Mar | 46 | 41 | 6 | 5 | 2 |
| b. The situation in Kosovo | |||||
| 99 Jul 22-25 | 44 | 38 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| The situation in Bosnia | |||||
| 95 Oct 19-22 | 30 | 48 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| 93 Sep 10-12 | 31 | 43 | 12 | 9 | 5 |
| c. The situation in Northern Ireland | |||||
| 99 Jul 22-25 | 23 | 46 | 16 | 8 | 7 |
In the Middle East situation, are your sympathies with the Israelis or more with the Palestinian Arabs?
| Israelis | Palestinians | BOTH/ NEITHER | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Jul 22-25 | 43% | 12% | 11/19% | 15% |
| 98 Dec 4-6 | 46 | 13 | 5/22 | 14 |
| 97 Aug 12-13 | 38 | 8 | 5/19 | 30 |
| 96 Nov 21-24 | 38 | 15 | 6/14 | 27 |
| 93 Sep 10-12 | 42 | 15 | 6/17 | 20 |
| 91 Feb | 64 | 7 | 19 | 10 |
| 89 Aug | 50 | 14 | 15 | 21 |
| 88 May 13-15 | 37 | 15 | 22 | 26 |
Do you think there will or will not come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace?
| Yes, will be a time | No, will not | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Jul 22-25 | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 98 Dec 4-6 | 40 | 56 | 4 |
| 97 Aug 12-13 | 36 | 56 | 8 |
Thinking about the financial aid the United States provides Israel for economic purposes, do you think U.S. economic aid to Israel should be -- [READ 1-3/3-1: 1) Increased (or) 2) Kept the same (or) Decrease (or)]
| Increased | 8% |
| Kept the same, or | 45 |
| Decreased | 41 |
| ELIMINATED (vol.) | 1 |
| No opinion | 5 |
| 100% |
Thinking about the financial aid the United States provides Israel for military purposes, do you think U.S. military aid to Israel should be -- [READ 1-3/3-1: 1) Increased (or) 2) Kept the same (or) Decrease (or)]?
| Increased | 10% |
| Kept the same, or | 42 |
| Decreased | 44 |
| ELIMINATED (vol.) | * |
| No opinion | 4 |
| 100% |
As you may know last year President Clinton helped to negotiate a peace agreement between the Israelis and Palestinian Arabs, known as the Wye River peace accords. The terms of that agreement have yet to be implemented because of disagreements on both sides. Do you think -- [READ 1-2/2-1: 1) The United States should put pressure on Israel and the Arabs to implement the terms of that peace agreement (or do you think) 2) The United States should leave it up to Israel and the Arabs to settle the peace process on their own (or do you think)]?
| The United States should put pressure on Israel and the Arabs to implement the terms of that peace agreement (or do you think) | 31% |
| The United States should leave it up to Israel and the Arabs to settle the peace process on their own (or do you think) | 66 |
| No opinion | 3 |
| 100% |
