GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
Americans have a more negative image of China than at any time since the days after Tiananmen Square in 1989, and a majority of the U.S. public thinks that the emergence of China as a world power represents a critical threat to the United States. Still, the public is split in its assessment of President Clinton's policy of constructive engagement with China, and only a small number of Americans consider China to be an enemy of the United States.
American attitudes towards China 30 years ago were overwhelmingly negative, with over nine out of ten Americans saying they had an unfavorable opinion of China in a Gallup poll conducted in 1967. Through the years that followed, which included Nixon's historic trip to China in 1972 and the death of Mao in 1976, American opinions gradually became more positive. By the 1980s, the period known as the Second Revolution during which time China underwent social and economic reforms, the American public underwent a complete reversal in attitude. In 1987, for example, over 65% of the U.S. public had a favorable opinion of China.
All of that changed with the Tiananmen square events of mid-1989. Between February and August of that year, favorable opinions of China fell from 72% to 34%, and unfavorable opinions rose concomitantly, from 13% in February to 54% in August.
Over the last ten years, since 1989, American attitudes have tended to remain more unfavorable than favorable. In the latest Gallup poll, conducted March 12-14, opinion towards China broke strongly negative: 59% unfavorable, and only 34% favorable.
One probable reason for the more negative current opinions may well be the controversy surrounding accusations that the Clinton administration has been too lax in its relationship with China and not vigilant enough in protecting American nuclear secrets from that country. Clinton has called his policy one of "constructive engagement", and Republicans have responded that it is not harsh enough towards the Chinese. Perhaps not surprisingly, public opinion on Clinton's foreign policy is very strongly partisan, with Democrats overwhelmingly saying that the Clinton China policy has been appropriate, while Republicans just as strongly say that it has gone too far. Overall, public opinion splits almost exactly down the middle, 46% to 47%.
Americans clearly are worried about the long-term implications of China's becoming a world power. A Gallup poll conducted for the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations last fall asked the public about their concern for a number of potential threats to U.S. vital interests. The "emergence of China as a major world power" was near the top of the list, with 59% of Americans saying that they thought this posed a critical threat to the U.S.
These negative perceptions persist despite the fact that Americans do not overwhelmingly see China as an enemy of the U.S. at this point. When given four choices to describe the relationship between the United States and China, only 10% say that China is an "enemy". The majority describe China as either friendly, 28%, or unfriendly, 26%, with almost no one using the word "ally". Perhaps reflecting the complexity of the changing relationship between the two countries, over a third of those interviewed say that they don't know enough about the U.S.-- China relationship to be able to typify it at all. These current findings can be contrasted with a survey conducted by the Los Angeles Times in 1983, at which time 47% of the American public felt that U.S. -China relations were friendly, and another 5% said that China was an ally.
For results based on the survey conducted March 12-14, 1999 (N=1,025) the margin of error is ±3 percentage points.
Which of the following best describes your view of the relationship between China and the United States? Would you say China is -- 1) an ally, 2) friendly, but not an ally, 3) unfriendly, but not an enemy, 4) an enemy of the United States, or, 5) haven't you heard enough about that yet to say
BASED ON -- 507 -- FORM A RESPONDENTS; MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR ± 5 PCT. PTS.
| Ally | Friendly | Unfriendly | Enemy | No opinion | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Mar 12-14** | 1% | 28% | 26% | 10% | 35% |
| 98 Jun 22-23** | 3 | 28 | 25 | 8 | 36 |
| 97 Oct 27-29 | 4 | 21 | 27 | 9 | 39 |
| 83 May 8-12^ | 5 | 47 | 18 | 3 | 27 |
** Based on half sample
^ Source: Los Angeles Times Survey
Next, what is your overall opinion of China -- very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable or very unfavorable?
BASED ON -- 518 -- FORM B RESPONDENTS; MARGIN OF SAMPLING ERROR ± 5 PCT. PTS.
| Very favor- able |
Mostly favor- able |
Mostly unfavor- able |
Very unfavor- able |
No opin- ion |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 Mar 12-14** | 2% | 32% | 39% | 20% | 7% |
| 99 Feb 8-9 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 16 | 11 |
| 98 Jul 7-8 | 6 | 38 | 36 | 11 | 9 |
| 98 Jun 22-23** | 5 | 34 | 42 | 9 | 10 |
| 97 Jun 26-29 | 5 | 28 | 36 | 14 | 17 |
| 96 Mar | 6 | 33 | 35 | 16 | 10 |
| 94 Feb | 4 | 36 | 38 | 15 | 7 |
| 93 Nov | 10 | 43 | 24 | 15 | 8 |
| 89 Aug | 5 | 29 | 32 | 22 | 12 |
| 89 Feb | 12 | 60 | 10 | 3 | 15 |
| 87 May | 8 | 57 | 23 | 5 | 7 |
| 83 Sep | 6 | 37 | 31 | 21 | 5 |
| 80 Jan | 6 | 36 | 30 | 24 | 4 |
| 79 Feb | 5 | 25 | 31 | 33 | 6 |
| 76 Jan | 3 | 17 | 29 | 45 | 6 |
| 1967 | * | 5 | 16 | 75 | 4 |
* Less than 0.5%
** Based on half sample
As you may know, the Clinton Administration has stated that it is committed to maintaining a constructive working relationship with China. As far as you are concerned, has the Clinton Administration acted appropriately or gone too far in trying to maintain this kind of relationship with China?
| 99 Mar 12-14 | |
|---|---|
| Acted appropriately | 46 |
| Gone too far | 47 |
| NOT GONE FAR ENOUGH (vol.) | 1 |
| No opinion | 6 |
| 100% |
Which of the following policy goals do you view as more important -- [ROTATE 1) For the U.S. to take a strong stand on human rights in China, or 2) for the U.S. to maintain good relations with China]?
| 99 Mar 12-14 | 97 Oct 27 | |
|---|---|---|
| For the U.S. to take a strong stand | 51 | 59 |
| To maintain good relations with China | 44 | 37 |
| No opinion | 5 | 4 |
| 100% | 100% |
