GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
In spite of the recent political agreement that keeps Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom, fewer than one in five Americans say they favor this solution to the Ireland question. According to a recent Gallup poll, Americans would prefer to see Northern Ireland become part of the Republic of Ireland than remain with the UK, by a wide--50% to 17%--margin.
When asked to say where their personal sympathies lie in the centuries-old dispute in Northern Ireland, support for the Catholics is less widespread. A majority of Americans, 54%, say they are neutral or have no opinion about the two sides in the conflict. (Perhaps expressing neutrality seems, to some respondents, to be the responsible stance.) Among those who do take sides, however, 30% say their sympathies are with the Catholics and 16% with the Protestants.
The new poll was conducted in the wake of news about a fire bomb that killed three young Catholic brothers in Belfast--the latest victims of the "troubles" in Northern Ireland which have resurfaced as the plebiscite on the recent peace agreement draws near.
Asked about their outlook for the agreement recently worked out between England and the conflicting sides in Northern Ireland, Americans are generally doubtful that the new terms of governance will lead to lasting peace in the area. Only 37% say they are optimistic that it will succeed, while about half, 49%, are pessimistic.
Older Americans Mostly Neutral
Younger Americans favor the Catholic over the Protestant side in
Northern Ireland by a 34% to 17% margin, while for Americans over
fifty the margin in favor of Catholics is considerably smaller, at
22% to 16%. Also, older Americans are much less likely than those
under fifty to take sides in the dispute. Nearly two-thirds of
those over fifty say they do not favor either side or have no
opinion in the matter, compared to just 43% of those under
fifty.
Methodology
The results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly
selected national sample of 619 adults, 18 years and older,
conducted July 13-14, 1998. For results based on samples of this
size, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the error
attributable to sampling and other random effects could be plus or
minus 4 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question
wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can
introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion
polls.
As you may know, the leaders of the two opposing sides in Northern Ireland have reached a new compromise agreement concerning the governance of Northern Ireland. Are you generally optimistic or pessimistic that this agreement will lead to lasting peace in Northern Ireland?
| Optimistic | 37% |
| Pessimistic | 49 |
| No opinion | 14 100% |
| Unite with Republic of Ireland | 50% |
| Remain part of the UK | 17 |
| None/other (vol.) | 4 |
| Doesn't matter/Don't care (vol.) | 14 |
| No opinion | 15 100% |
| Unite with Republic of Ireland | 50% |
| Remain part of the UK | 17 |
| None/other (vol.) | 4 |
| Doesn't matter/Don't care (vol.) | 14 |
| No opinion | 15 100% |