North Korea Below Iran and Iraq on Americans' "Evil" List

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- President Bush visits South Korea today on the second part of his three-nation tour of Asia. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi this past Sunday, and is scheduled to meet with South Korean President Kim Dae-jung this coming Wednesday before arriving in China on Thursday. Bush's trip to the region has sparked considerable interest since his State of the Union address this past January, in which he included North Korea as one of the three "axis of evil" countries that either possess or are developing weapons of mass destruction.

Major Conclusion

While Americans generally have a negative opinion of North Korea, these attitudes are less negative than views of Iran and Iraq -- the other two "axis of evil" countries identified by Bush in his State of the Union Address. To some degree, this is because Americans know less about North Korea than the other two countries. Though negative feelings about North Korea have increased slightly since last year, it appears that it will be a harder "sell" for Bush to convince Americans that military or economic intervention is needed in North Korea. This is mainly because Americans are less concerned that North Korea has or will develop weapons of mass destruction than is the case for either Iran or Iraq.

Details

• A Feb. 4-6 Gallup poll shows that only about one in four Americans has a positive image of North Korea, and roughly two-thirds have an unfavorable view. That is down slightly from last year, when 31% had a favorable opinion of this country and 59% had an unfavorable view.

• At the same time, 84% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Iran and 88% have an unfavorable view of Iraq -- the other two countries Bush identified as comprising the "axis of evil."

• Additionally, North Korea ranks as the least threatening "axis of evil" nation in the minds of Americans. A recent CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll asked Americans if they would describe the governments of various nations as "evil" or "not evil." Not surprisingly, 82% of Americans said the government of Iraq is evil, putting it at the top of the list, followed by Iran at 69%. North Korea ranked substantially lower, with only a slight majority of Americans willing to describe its government as evil. (Eleven percent said they do not know enough about North Korea to have an opinion on its evilness).

• Results from the Feb. 8-10 poll also show that only 52% of Americans think that North Korea has weapons of mass destruction or is trying to develop these weapons to threaten the U.S. An overwhelming majority of Americans (79%) think this about Iraq, fewer Americans (69%) think that Iran is trying to develop weapons of mass destruction or already has them.

Additional Key Points

• Older Americans generally have a more negative opinion of North Korea than younger Americans.

According to the Feb. 8-10 poll, negative views of North Korea are directly correlated with age. Three in four Americans aged 65 and older (those who are old enough, for the most part, to remember the Korean War) have an unfavorable opinion of North Korea. At the other end of the age spectrum, only 48% of 18-29 year olds have a negative image of this country.

• Older Americans are also much more likely than younger Americans to rate North Korea's government as evil. (By way of comparison, there are few differences by age in the rating of the governments of Iraq and Iran). Sixty-eight percent of people aged 65 and older rate the government of North Korea as evil, compared to 67% of 50-64 year olds, 49% of 30-49 year olds, and just 43% of 18-29 year olds.

• Men are more likely than women to have an unfavorable opinion of North Korea.

The Feb. 4-6 poll shows that 73% of men view North Korea unfavorably, compared to 59% of women. In part, this is due to the greater reluctance of women to express an opinion about North Korea: 17% of women did not have an opinion, compared to 6% of men.

• Americans are firmly behind the general concept of attacking the "axis of evil" countries.

The Feb 8-10 poll shows that, in a list of military objectives, Americans now rate preventing Iran, Iraq, and North Korea from developing weapons of mass destruction as the most important military goal for the U.S., with 79% saying this is a "very" important goal. Following closely is destroying terrorist operations outside of Afghanistan, with 77% saying "very" important, capturing or killing Osama bin Laden at 68%, and removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq at 64%.

• Conservatives and moderates are more likely than liberals to think the "axis of evil" countries have weapons of mass destruction or are trying to develop such weapons to threaten the U.S.

Implications

The United States has had direct confrontations with all three countries identified by President Bush as comprising an "axis of evil" -- North Korea during the Korean War of the early 1950s, Iran with the capture of American hostages in the late 1970s, and Iraq as a result of the Persian Gulf War in the early 1990s.

It is clear, however, that North Korea -- perhaps because of the passage of time -- is the least likely of these three countries to engender negative feelings from the American public. Younger Americans in particular are less likely to think negatively about North Korea and less willing to place the label "evil" on the country. Americans apparently have heard less about the possible possession of weapons of mass destruction by North Korea, which may be affecting their overall perceptions of the country in comparison to Iran and Iraq.

All of this suggests that President Bush may have a harder time moving American public opinion behind the concept of some type of military intervention in North Korea than will be the case in regard to Iraq or even Iran. Certainly, Americans knew relatively little about Iraq and its possession of weapons of mass destruction in the period of time before the build up to the Gulf War in 1990, but President George H.W. Bush was able to convince the public of Iraq's potential for evil and ultimately developed very strong support for the intervention in that country in early 1991.

It may well be that a building of public support for taking action against North Korea could occur in similar fashion over time. At the moment, however, the available data suggest that the U.S. public would be considerably more receptive to the idea of taking some type of military action against Iraq or Iran than against North Korea.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,011 adults, 18 years and older, conducted February 4-6, 2002; and 1,001 adults, 18 years and older, conducted February 8-10, 2002. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 and 4 percentage points, respectively. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, I'd like your overall opinion of some foreign countries. First, is your overall opinion of [RANDOM ORDER] very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? How about -- [INSERT NEXT ITEM]?

North Korea

		Very favor- able	Mostly favor- able	Mostly un- favor- able	Very un- favor- able	No opin.	TOTAL Favor- Able	TOTAL Un- favor- Able
2002 Feb 4-6		3%	20	38	27	12	23	65
2001 Feb 1-4 ^		3%	28	37	22	10	31	59
2000 Nov 13-15		3%	23	41	22	11	26	63
^	Asked of a half sample.

How important a goal should each of following be for U.S. military action -- should it be a very important goal, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

SUMMARY TABLE OF IMPORTANCE

 

2002 Feb 8-10 (sorted by "very important")	Very important	Somewhat important	Total important
	%	%	%
Preventing Iran, Iraq, and North Korea from developing weapons of mass destruction	79	15	94
Destroying terrorist operations outside of Afghanistan	77	18	95
Capturing or killing Osama bin Laden	68	20	88
Removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq	64	24	88

Do you think -- [RANDOM ORDER] -- currently has weapons of mass destruction, is trying to develop these weapons but does not currently have them, or is not trying to develop weapons of mass destruction?

 

2002 Feb 8-10	Currently has weapons	Is trying to develop weapons	Is not trying to develop weapons	No opinion
A. Iran	48%	43	4	5
B. Iraq	55%	40	2	3
C. North Korea	50%	36	5	9

If [ITEMS INSERTED FROM Q.12 AS APPROPRIATE] develops weapons of mass destruction, do you these would be a direct threat to the U.S., or not?

Do you think the weapons of mass destruction that [ITEMS INSERTED FROM Q.12 AS APPROPRIATE] has are a direct threat to the US, or not?

[COMBINED RESPONSE]

 

Iran	2002 Feb 8-10
	%
Has weapons that threaten U.S.	37
Has weapons that do not threaten U.S.	11
Is trying to develop weapons that would threaten U.S.	32
Is trying to develop weapons that would not threaten U.S.	11
Is not trying to develop weapons	4
No opinion	5

 

Iraq	2002 Feb 8-10
	%
Has weapons that threaten U.S.	46
Has weapons that do not threaten U.S.	9
Is trying to develop weapons that would threaten U.S.	33
Is trying to develop weapons that would not threaten U.S.	7
Is not trying to develop weapons	2
No opinion	3

 

North Korea	2002 Feb 8-10
	%
Has weapons that threaten U.S.	30
Has weapons that do not threaten U.S.	20
Is trying to develop weapons that would threaten U.S.	22
Is trying to develop weapons that would not threaten U.S.	14
Is not trying to develop weapons	5
No opinion	9

Would you describe the governments of each of the following countries as evil, or not? How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

 

2002 Feb 8-10 (sorted by "evil")	Evil	Not evil	No opinion
	%	%	%
Iraq	82	13	5
Iran	69	24	7
North Korea	54	35	11
Cuba	45	48	7
China	38	54	8
Russia	17	75	8