WASHINGTON, D.C. -- As Bulgaria prepares to hold its seventh parliamentary election in three years this Sunday, Gallup surveys show only 10% of Bulgarians trust the integrity of their elections. This dismal level of confidence is the lowest not only in the European Union, but also in the world.
In the nearly 20 years that Gallup has been asking Bulgarians about their trust in elections, they have never been particularly confident. But in 2022 and 2023, although Bulgaria tied statistically with other countries like Mongolia for the least confidence, no other country had less confidence.
The current challenges with forming a stable government in Bulgaria date back to the eruption of daily anti-government protests in 2020 during the final year of former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s government. Since then, various government formations and new political coalitions have attempted to take the reins, but no political force has managed to maintain power for any significant duration.
Distrust in Honesty of Elections Is the Norm
Bulgarians’ lack of confidence in elections is not new. Gallup World Poll data from 2014 and 2018 highlighted similarly low Bulgarian confidence in the honesty of elections. Since Gallup started measuring this indicator, the highest it has ever been in Bulgaria is 36% in 2006.
Confidence has ebbed and flowed since then but has never approached a majority over the past 17 years. It briefly stabilized between 2020 and 2021, only to dive again after the onset of the political crisis in 2021.
In comparison with its EU peers, the current level of confidence is one-third that of the next-lowest EU country, Romania (30%), and more than six times lower than the EU median (62%).
Bulgarians’ Confidence in Their Judicial System Lowest in the EU
The disillusionment with democratic institutions in Bulgaria is also reflected in the nation’s persistently low confidence in its judicial system and courts, the lowest in the EU and second-lowest in the world last year. Trust in judicial institutions is pivotal in shaping public perceptions of governmental integrity. When citizens view their judicial system as corrupt or ineffective, it erodes their faith in the rule of law and the fairness of governmental processes.
The systemic distrust that Bulgarians have in their electoral process and judiciary applies to other key institutions as well. Gallup’s National Institutions Index is a composite measure of the confidence a country's residents have in four key national institutions: the military, judicial system, national government and the honesty of elections. In 2023, Bulgaria ranked last in the world on the index (scoring 18/100), well below the next-lowest country (Peru, which scored 26).
This also represents one of the lowest scores on the National Institutions Index ever measured in the Gallup World Poll. Only Chad in 2006 has recorded a statistically lower score than Bulgaria last year.
Bulgarians’ Approval of EU Leadership Among Lowest in the EU
While the EU has enjoyed higher approval than Bulgaria’s fragmented governments over the past three years, Bulgarians’ approval of EU leadership has also begun to erode. It is now at an all-time low -- 42% -- since Gallup started measuring it in 2006.
Although Bulgarians’ approval of EU leadership had closely paralleled the EU average, that changed in 2022. Their approval has dipped for two consecutive years and has joined the bottom of the rankings, along with Hungary, Greece and Slovakia.
This is significant because the EU has historically been seen as a democratic club by all post-communist EU states that joined it in 2004 and 2007. Entering the EU was viewed as a sign of being accepted back into the European family of nations after the challenging years of communist dictatorship. If Bulgarians are losing faith in the EU, they could also be losing faith in the larger democratic project that the EU represents.
Bottom Line
The persistent distrust in key national institutions and skepticism about EU leadership underscore a systemic challenge within Bulgarian society. The cyclical nature of political crises and the inability of successive governments to establish lasting stability can exacerbate the broader disillusionment with key national institutions.
The most recent Bulgarian parliamentary election, on June 9, 2024, showed record-low voter turnout since the fall of communism, a potential sign that election fatigue and disillusionment with the electoral process are growing. As Bulgaria continues to grapple with these challenges, restoring faith in the electoral process and the country’s institutions remains a formidable task.
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