Economy, Immigration, Abortion, Democracy Driving Voters

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- More U.S. registered voters name the economy than any other issue as the most important factor determining which candidate they are supporting in this year’s presidential election. The 21% of voters overall naming the economy in response to the open-ended question includes 35% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents but only 7% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

Immigration, mentioned by 13% of voters, ranks behind the economy as the top factor influencing their presidential vote choice and is also named by more Republicans (25%) than Democrats (3%). For their part, Democratic voters most often name abortion (16%) and the preservation of democracy (14%) as the top issues driving their vote. Both of these issues are cited by just under one in 10 voters overall.

In addition to preserving democracy, 6% of Democrats cite a similar concept -- maintaining the rule of law and freedoms in the U.S. Various candidate-specific factors are commonly mentioned by Democratic voters, including a general dislike of the opposing candidate (9%), ethics and honesty (8%), character (4%), and competency and common sense (3%).

These findings, from an Oct. 14-27 Gallup poll, are similar to data from a September poll that showed the economy outpacing 21 other issues when voters rated the importance of each one to their vote. As in the current poll, Republican voters were more likely to highlight the importance of the economy and immigration, while abortion and democracy were more important to Democratic voters. In September’s survey, voters expressed more confidence in Donald Trump to handle the economy and immigration, while they trusted Kamala Harris more on abortion.

Harris Favored for National Unity, Democracy; Trump Better on Keeping U.S. Safe

A separate question in the latest survey asked voters to say which candidate would do a better job of achieving a series of broader societal or policy goals. Slim majorities of voters think Harris would be better at promoting national unity, protecting democracy and democratic principles, and preserving the American dream for young people and future generations. Voters believe Trump would be better at keeping the U.S. safe from foreign threats. Neither candidate has a significant advantage for being better at strengthening the middle class, bringing about the change the country needs, or reducing conflict around the world.          

Large majorities of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters and Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters think their party’s presidential nominee would better handle all of the issues measured. Republicans are most inclined to believe Trump would keep the country safe from international threats (96%), while the largest share of Democrats (96%) believe Harris would protect democracy and democratic principles.

The smallest majority of Republican voters, 82%, think Trump would be better at promoting national unity, while a similar majority of Democratic voters (86%) favor Harris to keep the U.S. safe from foreign threats.    

U.S. Voters More Satisfied With Harris’ Campaign Than Trump’s

A slim majority of registered voters, 53%, are satisfied with the way the Harris campaign has been conducted, while fewer, 43%, are satisfied with the Trump campaign. The latest readings are similar to 2020, when 56% of voters were satisfied with Joe Biden’s campaign and 46% with Trump’s.

Satisfaction levels with both parties’ campaigns were lower in 2016, when 48% of voters were satisfied with Hillary Clinton’s campaign and 30% with Trump’s. These readings are the lowest points for both parties’ candidates dating back to 2000. Despite this strikingly low satisfaction with his campaign, Trump went on to defeat Clinton.

The gap in voters’ satisfaction with presidential campaigns was largest in 2008, when 25 points separated views of Barack Obama’s (66%) and John McCain’s (41%) campaigns. Meanwhile, satisfaction with both campaigns in 2000, 2004 and 2012 were similar.   

Eighty-nine percent of Democrats and Democratic leaners and 81% of Republicans and Republican leaners are satisfied with the way their party’s presidential campaign is being conducted this year. Since 2000, no less than 70% of Democratic voters have expressed satisfaction with Democratic campaigns, while Republicans’ satisfaction with Trump hit the low for their party (51%) in 2016.  Republicans are about as satisfied with Trump’s campaign this year as they were in 2020. 

Most Partisans Now Report They’ve Made Up Their Minds About Vote

More than nine in 10 U.S. registered voters, including 93% of Republicans and 95% of Democrats, say they have made up their minds about whom they will vote for in the presidential election. Gallup last asked the question in August, when Republicans (78%) were less likely than Democrats (90%) to say they had decided whom to support.

Gallup has not asked this question routinely in prior presidential campaigns, so it is unclear how many late-deciding voters there are this year compared with prior years. However, a late October 2016 poll found 22% of voters had not made up their minds yet in an election that pitted two historically unpopular candidates against each other. 

Implications

Voters have largely decided whom they’ll support in this year’s presidential election, and many have already cast their ballots. If Trump wins the election, it will likely be due to voters’ confidence in his potential handling of issues, such as the economy and immigration. Conversely, if Harris wins, it will probably be owed to some combination of factors, including voters’ perceptions of her character, how she has run her campaign, and concerns about national unity and democracy in the U.S.

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