WASHINGTON, D.C. — As international pressure mounts for Lebanon’s government to disarm Hezbollah, a recent Gallup survey shows broad public support for allowing only the state’s military to have weapons. Nearly four in five Lebanese (79%) say only the Lebanese army should be allowed to maintain weapons in the country.
Should this scenario occur, it would mark a major shift in Lebanon’s security framework. For the past 50 years, the Lebanese Armed Forces have operated alongside non-state armed groups, including Hezbollah. However, the latter group’s military capability has been greatly reduced after its recent war with Israel.
These findings, from a Gallup survey conducted via in-person interviews in Lebanon in June and July, included a new question asking residents who should be allowed to maintain weapons in the country. Fieldwork took place shortly after U.S. Special Envoy for Syria Thomas Barrack visited Beirut and presented Lebanese officials with a road map for Hezbollah’s disarmament. The nationwide survey excludes approximately 10% of the Lebanese population, including several inaccessible areas under Hezbollah’s strict control in the country’s south, the Bekaa Valley and Beirut’s southern suburbs.
While broad national support exists across religious groups for limiting weapons to the Lebanese army, this consensus does not extend to the Shia community, which forms the core base of Hezbollah’s support. Among Lebanese Shia, 27% say that only the army should be allowed to maintain weapons, while 69% disagree. The limited support among Shia for the army alone to have arms compares with overwhelming support among Lebanese Christians (92%), Druze (89%) and Sunnis (87%).
Hezbollah formed in the early 1980s in response to Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon. It was the only militia group allowed to keep its arms under the 1989 Taif Agreement, which ended 15 years of civil war. Still, its armed status has both fueled sectarian concerns and sparked ongoing disputes about the sovereignty and role of the Lebanese state.
Yet, despite concerns about the state’s perceived weakness, 94% of Lebanese say they have confidence in their country’s military, including 98% of Lebanese Shia. As one of the country’s few genuinely national institutions, Gallup’s long-term trends show that the military continues to earn high ratings from the public, partly because of its ability to serve as a symbol of unity for Lebanon’s diverse communities.
More Lebanese Favor Economic, Political Support for Palestine Than Military Action
Hezbollah has both justified its need for weapons as necessary to defend Lebanon and framed its arsenal as part of a broader regional “axis of resistance” to Israel in support of the Palestinian cause.
However, when asked about ways that Lebanon can support Palestine, Lebanese reject lending military support. Ten percent of Lebanese say their country should support Palestine by engaging in direct conflict with Israel, while 86% say it should not. Nearly as many reject the idea of supporting Palestinian groups militarily with weapons or equipment (14% in favor vs. 81% opposed).
Lebanese are more inclined to support offering economic or political assistance, but they are largely divided on the topic. Half say Lebanon should give economic aid to Palestinians living in Palestine, and an equal percentage say it should offer political support — while nearly as many say Lebanon should do neither. Fewer Lebanese support offering economic aid to Palestinians living in Lebanon (31% in favor vs. 65% opposed).
Bottom Line
Following its war with Israel, Hezbollah finds itself in a difficult strategic position and its interests at odds with Lebanese public opinion.
The main pillars of Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon that once insulated its arsenal are under strain. It has lost its military strength, and the party’s key international backers — Syria’s Assad regime and Iran — are either gone or considerably weakened, leaving the group without critical outside backing. Further, Hezbollah’s local legitimacy and support among Lebanese is facing significant challenges.
Unlike after the war with Israel in 2006, the party has struggled to give financial aid to civilians who lost homes and businesses, straining support within its own political base. With one-quarter of Lebanese Shia supporting the prohibition of weapons for non-state actors, Hezbollah cannot take this community’s support for granted. At the same time, many Lebanese are likely exhausted by decades of conflict and ready to move on from a cycle of violence driven by armed groups over whom they have no veto.
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For complete methodology and specific survey dates, please review Gallup's Country Data Set details. Learn more about how the Gallup World Poll works.
