Voter Engagement High for Midterms

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Fifty-six percent of U.S. adults say they have given “quite a lot” of thought to the election, the highest Gallup has measured at this point in a midterm campaign. Similar levels were recorded in 2018 (54%), 2010 (55%) and 1994 (52%).

Historically, midterms in which Americans gave the most thought to the election also produced some of the biggest changes in congressional seats.

The current findings are based on Gallup’s Oct. 1-19 poll, the last before Election Day. Gallup has asked Americans how much thought they have given to the election in each midterm year since 1958, except for 1986. Between 1958 and 1982, typically less than a third of U.S. adults said they had given substantial thought to the election. However, since 1990, attention levels have generally exceeded 40%.

Election thought varies most by age and education. Whereas 73% of U.S. adults aged 65 and older have given quite a lot of thought to the election, this falls to 32% among the youngest adults, aged 18 to 29. Seventy percent of college graduates, compared with 38% of those with a high school education or less, are thinking a lot about the election. Attention is slightly higher among Democrats than Republicans, with independents trailing further behind.

Voting Enthusiasm Only Higher in One Other Midterm Year

Half of U.S. adults, including 56% of registered voters, report feeling more enthusiasm than usual about voting in the upcoming election. Gallup has only once found a higher level of enthusiasm in a midterm year — in 2018, when 69% of registered voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual. In all other midterm election years since 1994 (with the exception of 2010), less than half of voters said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting.

A significantly higher share of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents (58%) than Republicans and Republican-leaning independents (48%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting. Only in 2018 were Democrats more enthusiastic about voting than now. There have been two other years when Republican enthusiasm was higher than this year, including 2010 (63%) and 2018 (66%).

In some years, the party that led in voter enthusiasm gained the majority of U.S. House seats, including 1994, 2006 and 2010. Republicans were also more enthusiastic than Democrats in 2014, when they increased the majority they already held in the House.

Democrats had an edge in 2022, a year they lost House seats and their majority status, but the party had a better showing than many expected, including holding onto their Senate majority.

In 1998, 2002 and 2018, the parties were about evenly matched in enthusiasm.

Four in 10 Voters Plan to Vote Before Election Day

If they follow through on their intentions, more than four in 10 registered voters will have already cast their ballot before Election Day. Forty-three percent of registered voters interviewed in the Oct. 1-19 survey said they planned to vote early, including 5% who indicated they had already voted. Slightly more than half, 51%, plan to vote on Election Day, and the remainder are not planning to vote.

The 43% of voters planning to vote early is similar to the 41% measured in 2022 but higher than in other midterms dating back to 2010. The increase came after many states expanded early voting and absentee ballot opportunities.

Fifty-four percent of Democratic registered voters plan to vote early, compared with 38% of Republicans and 37% of independents. A similar pattern by party was seen in 2022, but before that, Republicans were about as likely to vote early as Democrats were. The divergence began during the 2020 election campaign, when President Donald Trump cast doubt on the security of mail voting.

Most registered voters, 68%, plan to vote in person, whether on Election Day or before then, while 21% plan to vote by absentee or mail ballot. Four percent of registered voters are unsure how they will vote, and the remainder do not plan to vote.

The current results represent a slight increase in in-person voting, from 63% in the last midterm election, and a slight decrease in mail voting, from 25%. But this year’s figures are essentially the same as those Gallup measured two years ago in the last presidential election year.

Republican registered voters are more likely than Democrats to vote in person and less likely to vote by mail, but the gap is narrower than in 2022, given a decline in the percentage of Democrats planning to vote by mail. Currently, 75% of Republicans plan to vote in person and 21% by mail, compared with 67% and 29% of Democrats, respectively. In 2022, 56% of Democrats and 75% of Republicans planned to vote in person, and 36% and 18%, respectively, by mail.

Steady Six in 10 Confident in Election Accuracy

Public confidence in elections is similar to what it has been in recent midterm and presidential elections dating back to 2020. Sixty-one percent of Americans are very (26%) or somewhat (35%) confident that votes across the country will be accurately cast and counted. In most elections prior to 2020, confidence was generally higher, registering 70% or above in 2004, 2006 and 2018.

Democrats (72%) and college graduates (72%) are more confident than Republicans (54%), independents (60%) and those without a college degree (54%) in the election process.

Democrats’ confidence is down and Republicans’ is up since the 2022 and 2024 elections, likely reflecting the change from a Democratic to a Republican presidential administration after the 2024 election. Partisans’ confidence in the election process is typically influenced by which party controls the White House. However, since 2020, Democrats have been consistently more confident than Republicans during both Republican and Democratic presidential administrations.

Bottom Line

The 2026 midterm election campaign ranks among the highest in voter attention and enthusiasm and will likely see high levels of early voting. Confidence in the election process is similar to what it has been in recent elections, but lower than it was in most election years prior to 2020.

Democrats, many of whom have already voted or will vote before Election Day, are more likely to be thinking about the election and to be enthusiastic about voting. Sometimes party advantages on those measures have pointed to a successful midterm election year for a party. That appears to be a distinct possibility this year, especially given the sour mood of the nation and anti-incumbency disposition of voters at a time when the Republican Party controls the federal government.

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