Americans Speak Out on State of the Union

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- If President Bush's State of the Union address next week is to resonate with the American public, then results from a new Gallup Poll suggest it should applaud the U.S. military's strength and the overall quality of life in the country, and recognize healthcare, immigration, poverty, the nation's economy, and taxes as areas that require attention. These are the high and low points of the nation's state of affairs, according to the American public as reflected in a Gallup Poll conducted Jan. 13-16.

The percentage of Americans who are satisfied with the U.S. military has swelled over the past two years, no doubt triggered by the post-Sept. 11 war on terrorism. Public dissatisfaction with taxes has declined over this period, but satisfaction with the nation's healthcare costs, immigration, and the economy has taken a sharp downward turn.

In Gallup's annual "Mood of America" survey, conducted each January, survey respondents were asked to rate their degree of satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the state of national affairs in 28 different areas. The results reveal a public climate that is quite different today from when President Bush made his first State of the Union speech a year ago, and from when he delivered his inaugural address two years ago.

Public Mood Souring

In January 2001, Americans were troubled by a litany of domestic concerns, such as healthcare and taxes, but their satisfaction with the economy was high, and their overall rating of the nation was positive. In January 2002, Americans were still in a period of aftershock following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and their mood was one of exceptional faith in their government and leaders. Today, Americans' exuberance about government has subsided, and their concern about the nation's economy has surged.

Perhaps as a result, Gallup's overall measure of the way things are going in the country -- a key Gallup indicator of the public's mood -- has switched from net positive in 2000 and 2001, to net negative. As shown below, by a 56% to 42% margin, the majority of Americans today are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States.

Overall Rating of the Way Things Are Going in the United States

A major worry of Americans today is the situation with Iraq, along with the war on terrorism and possible conflicts in other parts of the world such as North Korea. Gallup's open-ended question asking Americans to name the most important problem facing the country shows that these foreign policy challenges, combined with general concerns about war, terrorism, and national security represent paramount public concerns alongside the economy. Despite these foreign policy challenges, the new poll shows Americans to be fairly well satisfied with U.S. position in the world and national security.

The following table details the public's satisfaction with each of the 28 areas measured, ranked according to the percentage "net satisfied" with each area. The American public is more satisfied than dissatisfied with the state of affairs in 10 areas, and is more dissatisfied than satisfied in 11 areas. It is about equally divided in seven.

Some additional key points about the 2003 state-of-the-nation ratings:

• Public attitudes about the two most highly rated areas -- the quality of life in America and the nation's military -- are quite uniform throughout society.
• Nearly equal numbers of men and women (78% and 72%, respectively) say they are satisfied with the position of women in the nation.
• While overall satisfaction with the position of blacks and other racial minorities is quite high (56% of Americans are satisfied and 36% are dissatisfied), sharp differences are seen on this item according to one's racial background: 59% of whites are satisfied compared with only 37% of blacks. Also, Republicans are more satisfied than Democrats (66% vs. 50%).
• Men are more satisfied than women with the nation's policies on guns (51% vs. 43%) as well as on education (45% vs. 39%).
• Men and women are about equally satisfied on the abortion issue (44% and 41%).
• While a majority of all age groups say they are dissatisfied with the acceptance of homosexuality in the country, a follow-up question reveals that it is for different reasons: by a 43% to 20% margin, adults aged 18 to 29 think homosexuality should be more widely accepted rather than less widely accepted. The figures are nearly reversed for those aged 65 and older. Adults aged 30 to 49 and 50 to 64 favor less acceptance by a slight margin.
• A 54% majority of Americans aged 65 and older are satisfied with the Social Security and Medicare systems, while a majority of younger Americans (62%) are dissatisfied.
• Attitudes toward immigration differ by age: 40% of 18- to 29-year-olds are satisfied with the level of immigration today, but this drops to about 25% among the middle-aged groups, and to 18% among those 65 and older.
• Large partisan differences are seen on the environment with 70% of Republicans, but only 47% of independents and 48% of Democrats, saying they are satisfied with the quality of the environment.
• Republicans and Democrats are equally likely to say they are satisfied with the nation's military defenses and with the nation's security from terrorism, but they differ in perceptions about the role the United States plays in world affairs: 70% of Republicans are satisfied, vs. 50% of independents and 45% of Democrats.
• Other areas marked by a partisan gulf in attitudes (with Republicans registering higher satisfaction than Democrats) include the economy, energy, access to affordable healthcare, the perceived state of race relations, the quality of medical care, poverty and homelessness, and immigration.

Changes Since 2001

As shown in the table below, the largest changes in the public's national assessments that have occurred since President Bush took office are seen on the economy (with attitudes dropping 71 points from a net positive of 41 in 2001 to a net negative of -30 today) and the nation's military strength, increasing 40 points from a net 29 in 2001 to a net 69 today.

Among the many areas in which public satisfaction has increased since 2001, the 19-point shift in satisfaction with the nation's gun laws (from -19 net satisfied in 2001 to 0 net satisfied today) seems important because it moves the issue from negative into neutral territory. A similar finding is observed for the nation's energy policies. The 18-point advance in satisfaction with the position of women since 2001 simply makes an already positively rated issue only more positive. Improvements in the public's evaluation of the amount Americans pay in taxes and of the nation's campaign finance laws temper previously strong negative evaluations -- but the evaluations remain negative.

Of those areas seeing a decline in public satisfaction since 2001, the drops in perceptions about immigration, affordable healthcare, and Social Security/Medicare deepen what were already negative assessments. The declines in perceptions about America's role in world affairs, the opportunity for people to get ahead by working hard, and the influence of organized religion merely temper what remain positive evaluations. Apart from the dramatic shift in perceptions about the nation's economy, only the drop in satisfaction about the size and influence of major corporations produces a substantive shift in the standing of that area, moving it from the neutral category into the negative sphere.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,000 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Jan. 13-16, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

Next, I'm going to read some aspects of life in America today. For each one, please say whether you are -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied.How about -- [ROTATED]?

A. The overall quality of life

B. Our system of government and how well it works

C. The size and power of the federal government

D. The moral and ethical climate

E. Opportunity for a person to get ahead by working hard

F. The size and influence of major corporations

G. The influence of organized religion

Next, we'd like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the following areas. For each one, please say whether you are -- very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. If you don't have enough information about a particular subject to rate it, just say so. How about -- [ITEMS A-T ROTATED, THEN ITEM U READ]?

A. The nation's policies regarding the abortion issue

B. The nation's campaign finance laws

C. The nation's policies to reduce or control crime

D. The state of the nation's economy

E. The quality of public education in the nation

F. The nation's energy policies

G. The quality of the environment in the nation

H. The role America plays in world affairs

I. The nation's laws or policies on guns

J. The acceptance of homosexuality in the nation

K. The availability of affordable healthcare

L. The quality of medical care in the nation

M. The level of immigration into the country today

N. The nation's military strength and preparedness

O. Nation's efforts to deal with poverty and homelessness

P. Position of blacks and other racial minorities

Q. The state of race relations

R. The amount Americans pay in federal taxes

S. The Social Security and Medicare systems

T. The position of women in the nation

U. The nation's security from terrorism