GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- California voters seem poised to dump their current governor more than three years before his term expires and replace him with a popular Hollywood actor with virtually no political experience. If the election were held today, a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that the recall drive would draw the support of close to two-thirds of California's registered voters (only a majority is needed). Among a list of the more prominent people running to replace the incumbent Governor Gray Davis, Arnold Schwarzenegger draws the most support, with the current lieutenant governor a distant second place.
The recall election is scheduled for Oct. 7, and the poll, conducted over this past weekend, Aug. 7-10, finds 64% of registered voters supporting the recall, with 29% opposed.
As I mentioned earlier, there will be two questions on the ballot on October 7th. First, voters will be asked whether Governor Gray Davis should be removed from office or not. If the recall election were being held today, would you vote to -- [ROTATED: remove Davis from office, (or would you vote to) keep Davis in office]?
|
Remove from office |
Keep in office |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
64% |
29 |
7 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
69% |
26 |
5 |
Among "probable voters" -- registered voters who are "extremely" or "very" interested in the election, and who are either "absolutely certain" or "extremely likely" to vote -- support for the recall is even higher: 69% in favor, and 26% opposed.
The latest news reports suggest that nearly 200 candidates may have filed to replace Davis, as each person needed only 65 signatures and a filing fee of $3,500 to get on the ballot. Among those who filed are Schwarzenegger; the current lieutenant governor, Cruz Bustamante; the runner-up in last year's gubernatorial race, Bill Simon Jr.; Republican state senator Tom McClintock; and columnist Arianna Huffington.
The poll shows that Schwarzenegger is the most popular among the candidates mentioned in the poll, with 24% of registered voters saying there is a "very good chance" they will vote for him, three times the number of voters who say there is a very good chance they will vote for Bustamante (8%) -- who comes in second place. McClintock and Simon garner 5% and 4% support, respectively, while all other candidates get 3% or less. Support for Schwarzenegger is even higher among "probable" voters -- at 28%.
SUMMARY TABLE: CHANCE OF VOTING FOR EACH CANDIDATE
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
Very good chance (Registered Voters) |
Very good chance (Probable Voters) |
|
% |
% |
|
|
Actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger |
24 |
28 |
|
Former Los Angeles Mayor, Richard Riordan ‡ |
11 |
13 |
|
Lieutenant Governor, Cruz Bustamante |
8 |
8 |
|
State Senator, Tom McClintock |
5 |
4 |
|
Businessman, Bill Simon |
4 |
4 |
|
Hustler magazine publisher, Larry Flynt |
3 |
3 |
|
Congresswoman, Loretta Sanchez |
3 |
3 |
|
Former California Secretary of State, Bill Jones |
3 |
2 |
|
Insurance Commissioner, John Garamendi ‡ |
3 |
2 |
|
Columnist, Arianna Huffington |
2 |
2 |
|
Green Party Leader, Peter Camejo |
2 |
2 |
|
Actor, Gary Coleman |
1 |
1 |
|
Former Baseball Commissioner, Peter Ueberroth |
1 |
1 |
|
‡ Not a candidate |
Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan receives support from 11% of voters, but he decided not to file and instead endorsed Schwarzenegger. Democrat John Garamendi also did not file, and instead endorsed Bustamante.
Another way to look at potential support, since the voters have yet had little time to absorb who the various candidates are, is to examine the percentage of voters saying there is either a "very good" or "good" chance they would vote for that candidate. In this case, Schwarzenegger still comes in first with 42% support, but the potential strength of Bustamante -- the only major Democratic candidate to file -- becomes more evident, as he receives support from 22% of the voters. In third place are Simon and McClintock, each with 13%.
SUMMARY TABLE: CHANCE OF VOTING FOR EACH CANDIDATE
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
Very good/good chance (Registered Voters) |
Very good/good chance (Probable Voters) |
|
% |
% |
|
|
Actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger |
42 |
48 |
|
Former Los Angeles Mayor, Richard Riordan ‡ |
24 |
26 |
|
Lieutenant Governor, Cruz Bustamante |
22 |
23 |
|
State Senator, Tom McClintock |
13 |
13 |
|
Businessman, Bill Simon |
13 |
11 |
|
Congresswoman, Loretta Sanchez |
12 |
9 |
|
Insurance Commissioner, John Garamendi ‡ |
10 |
9 |
|
Former Baseball Commissioner, Peter Ueberroth |
7 |
8 |
|
Former California Secretary of State, Bill Jones |
8 |
5 |
|
Columnist, Arianna Huffington |
7 |
5 |
|
Green Party Leader, Peter Camejo |
6 |
5 |
|
Hustler magazine publisher, Larry Flynt |
6 |
4 |
|
Actor, Gary Coleman |
2 |
3 |
|
‡ Not a candidate |
Again, among probable voters, Schwarzenegger receives an even larger proportion of support, 48%, while Bustamante's support inches up to 23%.
There has been much discussion in the media about the degree to which the candidacy of movie actor Schwarzenegger is a serious effort by a well-qualified candidate. But the poll shows that the vast majority of voters take his candidacy seriously (73%), while just 23% consider it a joke.
Do you regard -- [ROTATED: Arnold Schwarzenegger as a candidate who deserves to be taken seriously, (or do you regard) Arnold Schwarzenegger's candidacy as a joke]?
|
Taken seriously |
A joke |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
73% |
23 |
4 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
78% |
19 |
3 |
Additionally, California voters appear sanguine about the actor's lack of political experience. By a two-to-one margin, 52% to 26%, they think he would do a better, rather than worse, job than someone with a career as an elected public official.
Do you think Arnold Schwarzenegger would do -- [ROTATED: a better job (or) a worse job] -- than someone who had a career as an elected public official?
|
Better job |
Worse job |
SAME (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
52% |
26 |
8 |
14 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
58% |
23 |
7 |
12 |
Similarly, most voters think Schwarzenegger has the personal qualities needed to be governor.
Please tell me whether you agree or disagree that Arnold Schwarzenegger has the personal qualities a governor should have.
|
Agree |
Disagree |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
69% |
23 |
8 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
74% |
20 |
6 |
Reinforcing the electoral support Schwarzenegger receives is an exceptionally high favorability rating, with about 8 in 10 expressing a favorable opinion of the actor, and just 12% an unfavorable opinion.
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Arnold Schwarzenegger, or have you never heard of him?
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Never heard of |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
79% |
12 |
* |
9 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
82% |
10 |
0 |
8 |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with -- 801 -- registered voters in California, aged 18+, conducted August 7-10, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Probable voters include a subsample of -- 562 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the Oct. 7 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
Now, for each of the following, please tell me whether you think there is a very good chance that you would vote for that person to replace Governor Gray Davis if he is recalled, a good chance, some chance, not much chance, or no chance at all. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?
A. Actor, Arnold Schwarzenegger
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
24% |
18 |
20 |
8 |
27 |
* |
3 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
28% |
20 |
20 |
6 |
24 |
0 |
2 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
|
* Less than 0.5% |
|||||||
B. Lieutenant Governor, Cruz Bustamante
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
8% |
14 |
21 |
8 |
42 |
3 |
4 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
8% |
14 |
19 |
8 |
47 |
1 |
3 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
C. Columnist, Arianna Huffington
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
2% |
5 |
13 |
11 |
57 |
7 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
2% |
3 |
11 |
11 |
66 |
3 |
4 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
D. Hustler magazine publisher, Larry Flynt
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
3% |
3 |
5 |
5 |
79 |
2 |
3 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
3% |
1 |
2 |
6 |
85 |
1 |
2 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
Q.4 CONTINUED
E. Actor, Gary Coleman
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
1% |
1 |
6 |
8 |
79 |
2 |
3 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
1% |
2 |
3 |
7 |
85 |
1 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
F. Former California Secretary of State, Bill Jones
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
3% |
4 |
17 |
16 |
46 |
7 |
7 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
2% |
3 |
17 |
16 |
52 |
5 |
5 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
G. Businessman, Bill Simon
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
4% |
9 |
22 |
9 |
48 |
3 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
4% |
7 |
21 |
10 |
53 |
1 |
4 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
H. State Senator, Tom McClintock
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
5% |
8 |
23 |
10 |
42 |
5 |
7 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
4% |
9 |
23 |
12 |
44 |
3 |
5 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
Q.4 CONTINUED
I. Insurance Commissioner, John Garamendi
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
3% |
7 |
23 |
12 |
45 |
4 |
6 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
2% |
7 |
22 |
14 |
50 |
1 |
4 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
J. Green Party Leader, Peter Camejos
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
2% |
4 |
9 |
12 |
60 |
9 |
4 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
2% |
3 |
8 |
13 |
65 |
6 |
3 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
K. Former Baseball Commissioner, Peter Ueberroth
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
1% |
6 |
16 |
14 |
51 |
6 |
6 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
1% |
7 |
17 |
15 |
52 |
3 |
5 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
L. Former Los Angeles Mayor, Richard Riordan
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
11% |
13 |
28 |
10 |
30 |
2 |
6 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
13% |
13 |
27 |
11 |
32 |
0 |
4 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
Q.4 CONTINUED
M. Congresswoman, Loretta Sanchez
|
Very good chance |
|
|
Not much chance |
No chance |
NEVER HEARD OF (vol.) |
|
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
3% |
9 |
19 |
10 |
48 |
6 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||||||
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
3% |
6 |
18 |
11 |
54 |
4 |
4 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
|||||||
