GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- The California recall election campaign is in its final week, and Californians are paying a great deal of attention to the election. This past weekend's CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll in California suggests that recent campaign events have had a modest effect on voters. Specifically, California voters are now somewhat more likely to believe that Arnold Schwarzenegger is capable of governing the state. Former President Bill Clinton's campaign stop on behalf of Gov. Gray Davis may have encouraged some Democrats in California to vote against the recall. And Wednesday's debate seems to have boosted the fortunes of Republican candidates while hurting the leading Democratic candidate, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. All in all, California voters generally remain divided as to whether the recall is good or bad for the state of California.
For a variety of reasons, the recall campaign has attracted a lot of attention nationally, as well as in California. Gov. Gray Davis could become only the second governor in the U.S. history to be recalled from office, and never before has such a large state voted to recall a governor. More than 100 candidates are running to replace Davis, including many celebrities and other prominent Californians, chief among them former bodybuilding champion and action movie star Schwarzenegger.
The poll, conducted Sept. 25-27, shows that more than three-quarters of registered voters in California are either "extremely" (41%) or "very" (35%) interested in the recall election. Additionally, 6 in 10 California registered voters say they are "absolutely certain to vote" on Oct. 7, although actual turnout will probably be lower than that figure. About 60% of registered voters said they watched at least some of the debate between the major candidates on Sept. 24.
The Debate
Last Wednesday's debate, the only forum likely to include Schwarzenegger, seems to have had some effect on voters. Among California registered voters who watched the debate, 38% say Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock did the best job, and 23% say Schwarzenegger. Only 14% say Bustamante, barely more than say Green Party candidate Peter Camejo (11%). The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll, conducted in the first three days following the debate, shows 34% of registered voters, and 40% of "probable voters" saying they intend to vote for Schwarzenegger. Bustamante is supported by 28% of registered voters and 25% of probable voters. A new Los Angeles Times poll, conducted Sept. 25-29, also shows Schwarzenegger leading among likely voters, at 40%, with Bustamante at 32% and McClintock at 15%.
Prior polls conducted in California suggested a much closer race between Schwarzenegger and Bustamante, and the debate may have hurt the lieutenant governor's fortunes. A Sept. 6-10 Los Angeles Times poll showed 30% of likely voters in California supporting Bustamante, 25% supporting Schwarzenegger, and 18% for McClintock. A Field poll conducted Sept. 3-7 had Bustamante at 30% support, Schwarzenegger at 25%, and McClintock at 13%.
While not a precise comparison due to methodological differences between polling firms, the recent Gallup Poll and the two earlier polls suggest that independent voters are moving away from Bustamante (and perhaps McClintock) and toward Schwarzenegger. Schwarzenegger also appears to be increasing his support among Republicans, in part due to Peter Ueberroth's decision to drop out of the race (both earlier polls included Ueberroth in the list of candidates prior to his dropping out Sept. 9). At the same time, Bustamante has apparently not been able to increase his support among his natural Democratic base of supporters, while Schwarzenegger has gained more support among Democrats as well as Republicans.
|
Overall |
Democrat |
Independent^ |
Republican |
|
|
Gallup (Sept. 25-27) -- Probable Voters |
||||
|
Schwarzenegger |
40% |
18% |
44% |
60% |
|
Bustamante |
25% |
55% |
17% |
1% |
|
McClintock |
18% |
5% |
20% |
30% |
|
Los Angeles Times (Sept. 6-10) -- Likely Voters |
||||
|
Schwarzenegger |
25% |
10% |
14% |
45% |
|
Bustamante |
30% |
57% |
24% |
4% |
|
McClintock |
18% |
4% |
28% |
31% |
|
Field Poll (Sept. 3-7) -- Likely Voters |
||||
|
Schwarzenegger |
25% |
10% |
29% |
41% |
|
Bustamante |
30% |
59% |
19% |
4% |
|
McClintock |
13% |
3% |
8% |
27% |
|
^ The Field poll uses a different question to measure partisanship, which yields a smaller percentage of independents than the Gallup or Los Angeles Times polls do. Therefore, direct comparison of percentages for independents should be avoided. |
||||
These data also suggest that McClintock has not capitalized on his debate performance from an electoral standpoint. His support among Republicans appears not to have moved much in the last few weeks. This could be due in part to the fact that many Republican registered voters, 48%, would like to see McClintock drop out of the race. Only 21% of Republicans and Republican leaners who are registered to vote say this about Schwarzenegger.
One positive effect of the debate for McClintock is that he apparently is viewed much more favorably by Californians now than before the debate. In the Gallup Poll, 62% of probable voters give McClintock a favorable rating. The recent Los Angeles Times poll showed 46% of likely California voters rating McClintock favorably and the Field poll showed 38% of likely voters doing the same.
Schwarzenegger's Amateur Status
The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll also suggests that Californians are becoming more likely to believe that Schwarzenegger is capable of governing the state. Fifty-six percent of California registered voters express the view that Schwarzenegger is capable, while 39% believe he is not capable. An Aug. 8 CNN/Time poll showed only 45% of registered voters saying Schwarzenegger was capable of governing California.
But voters are more likely to hold Schwarzenegger's lack of political experience against him than to see it as a plus. When asked how his inexperience affects their vote, 52% of registered California voters say it makes them less likely to vote for Schwarzenegger, and 30% say more likely. Seventeen percent volunteer that it makes no difference.
Among Republican registered voters, who presumably could choose to vote for the more experienced McClintock, more say Schwarzenegger's lack of experience increases (42%) rather than decreases (34%) the likelihood that they would vote for him. Democrats are overwhelmingly likely to view Schwarzenegger's lack of experience as a liability (69% say it makes them less likely to vote for him while 16% say more likely), and more independents say they are less likely to vote for Schwarzenegger because of his lack of experience (48%) than say they will vote for him (35%) on this basis.
Democratic Firepower
The California Democratic Party has attempted to rally voters against the recall of Gov. Davis, by enlisting well-known Democrats such as former President Bill Clinton and former Vice President Al Gore to help campaign against the recall. Sixty-eight percent of registered voters in California say Clinton's campaigning will make no difference to their vote. Among the Democratic Party faithful, the vast majority (70%) also say Clinton's campaigning won't influence their decision, but by a two-to-one margin, say it is more likely to make them vote against the recall (18%) than for it (9%). And among registered voters who identify themselves as independents, 15% say Clinton's campaigning makes them more likely to vote to recall Davis, 8% say less likely, and 74% say it will not make any difference.
Views on the Recall
The poll shows that Californians are divided as to whether the recall is good or bad for the state, with 45% of registered voters there saying good and 51% saying bad. A CNN/Time poll in early August found 47% of California registered voters saying the recall was good for California and 46% saying bad.
Views on this matter are highly partisan, with 66% of Republican registered voters saying the recall election is good for California, while 75% of Democratic registered voters say it is bad.
Coming on the heels of the 1998 impeachment of Clinton and the 2000 election controversy, the effort to recall Davis has led some Democrats (including Clinton and Davis himself) to charge that these events are part of a Republican strategy to overturn the results of elections with which they disagree. However, only about one in three registered California voters believe these charges to be true, while 63% say they are not true. Predictably, nearly 90% of Republican registered voters say the charges are not true, but a substantial proportion of Democrats, 41%, agree that the charges lack merit. However, a majority of Democrats (54%) subscribe to the belief that the recall is just the latest chapter in an ongoing Republican conspiracy.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected sample of 1,007 adults, 18 years and older, living in California conducted Sept. 25-27, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For results based on the sample of -- 787 -- Californians who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
Probable voters include a subsample of -- 581 -- survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the Oct. 7 California recall election, based on their level of interest and intention to vote. This definition assumes a turnout of 51% in the recall election after weighting. For results based on the sample of probable voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 356 -- California Republicans or Republican leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 286 -- California Republicans or Republican leaners who are deemed most probable to vote in the recall election, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 368 -- California Democrats or Democratic leaners who are registered to vote, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points.
For results based on the sample of -- 482 -- California registered voters who watched the gubernatorial debate on Wednesday, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.
As you may know, a special recall election will be held in California on October 7th in which voters will decide whether to remove Governor Gray Davis from office and who would become the next governor if Davis is recalled.
1. How interested would you say you are in this recall election -- extremely interested, very interested, moderately interested, only a little interested, or not at all interested?
|
|
|
|
Only |
|
|
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
41 |
35 |
15 |
5 |
3 |
1 |
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
39 |
32 |
18 |
5 |
6 |
* |
|
Probable Voters |
||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
57 |
42 |
1 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
58 |
42 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||||
2. How likely do you think you are to vote in that special recall election on October 7th -- absolutely certain to vote, extremely likely, very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely, or not at all likely?
|
|
Ex- |
Very |
Some- |
Not |
|
VOTED |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
60 |
15 |
10 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
-- |
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
60 |
16 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
4 |
-- |
1 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
76 |
15 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
9 |
-- |
|
2003 Aug 7-10 |
81 |
19 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||||||
13. Do you think the recall election is good for the state of California or bad for the state of California?
|
Good |
Bad |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
45% |
51 |
4 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
50% |
47 |
3 |
Trend for Comparison: Do you think the recall election is good for the state of California or bad for the state of California? (CNN/Time Poll)
|
Good |
Bad |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 8 |
47% |
46 |
7 |
14. Did Bill Clinton's campaigning against the recall of Governor Davis make you -- [ROTATED: more likely to vote to recall Davis, did it not make much difference, or did it make you less likely to vote to recall Davis]?
|
More likely |
No difference |
Less likely |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
18% |
68 |
12 |
2 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
21% |
66 |
11 |
2 |
16. Do you think that Arnold Schwarzenegger is -- or is not -- capable of governing the state of California?
|
Yes, is |
No, is not |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
56% |
39 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
59% |
36 |
5 |
Trend for Comparison: Do you think that Arnold Schwarzenegger is -- or is not -- capable of governing the state of California? (CNN/Time Poll)
|
Yes, is |
No, is not |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Aug 8 |
45% |
39 |
16 |
17. Does the fact that Arnold Schwarzenegger has never run for or held political office make you -- [ROTATED: more likely (or) less likely] -- to vote for him as governor?
|
More |
Less |
NO DIFFERENCE (vol.) |
No |
|
|
Registered Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
30% |
52 |
17 |
1 |
|
Probable Voters |
||||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
34% |
47 |
18 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
19. Some Democrats have charged that the recall election in California is part of a nationwide Republican strategy to attempt to overturn the results of elections which don't go their way. Do you believe these charges to be true or not true?
|
True |
Not true |
No opinion |
|
|
Registered Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
32% |
63 |
5 |
|
Probable Voters |
|||
|
2003 Sep 25-27 |
31% |
66 |
3 |
