GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- President George W. Bush has to look back no further than the last two elections to find two significantly different models for what might happen in next year's presidential election. His father George H.W. Bush's campaign floundered on the shoals of perceived bad economic times in 1992, while Bill Clinton rode the crest of a rising economic tide to victory in 1996.
A true indication of the probabilities that the current president's re-election will veer in one or the other of these directions won't be possible until well into next year, after the Democratic candidate has been determined, and perhaps not even until after the important summer conventions.
But there are a number of public opinion indicators that are useful in comparing the situation in these two previous election years with the current situation -- indicators that can give us a preliminary feel for how the election is shaping up.
Presidential Job Approval
President Bush's current job approval rating, 56%, is exactly midway between the 66% approval rating for the elder Bush in October 1991, and the 46% approval rating for Clinton in October 1995. These job approval-rating comparisons don't give us a lot of predictive capability. This is because the current president's rating is equally close to both Clinton's and Bush's ratings, and because the previous president with the higher job approval rating (Bush) lost his re-election bid, while the one with the lower rating (Clinton) won. Indeed, the elder Bush's rating was on a downward track, bottoming out later in the summer of 1992 at 29%. Clinton, on the other hand, was recovering from low average ratings in his first three years in office, and moved up to 60% by the end of the summer of 1996.
Comparisons After Three Years in Office
In a 1980 presidential debate, Republican candidate Ronald Reagan asked Americans how well off they were "now compared with four years ago," when his opponent, incumbent Jimmy Carter, was in office. The question helped focus voters' attention on the dismal economic situation in which the country found itself, and of course Reagan went on to victory in the November election.
Gallup has asked similar questions before the 1992 and 1996 elections, and included them in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted October 10-12.
The five questions in the recent poll asked Americans if they are better off or worse off than three years ago in general, and then in each of four areas: their ability to buy things in stores, the country's unemployment situation, the respect given to America around the world, and their feelings of safety and security.
The results indicate that the current president is in worse shape across the board than was Clinton in 1996. On the other hand, responses to the questions indicate that George Bush is in a little better situation on economic issues than was his father, but in worse shape on the issues of the country's image around the world, and the public's feelings of security.
Better Off Than Three Years Ago?
Exactly 50% of Americans have said they are better off than three years ago in the pre-election environment in 1992, 1996, and now. Americans are slightly more likely to indicate they are not better off this year than in the other two years, at which times they were more likely to volunteer that they were as well off. But it seems fair to say that there is very little difference on this key dimension across the three pre-election periods of time.
|
Are you better off than you were three years ago, or not?
|
||||
|
Yes, |
|
AS WELL OFF (vol.) |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
50 |
42 |
8 |
* |
|
1996 Jan 5-7 |
50 |
34 |
15 |
1 |
|
1992 Jan 3-6 |
50 |
38 |
11 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||
Easier to Buy Things in Stores Than Three Years Ago?
Americans are slightly less negative on the issue of purchasing power than they were in January 1992, but slightly more negative than they were in 1996. There was a -15-point net difference in 1992 between the percentage saying it was easier to buy things in stores and the percentage saying it was not. In 1996, that same difference was +2. This year, it's -5.
This indicator fits in with other economic data Gallup has tracked across the last decade. Americans' perceptions of the current economy are considerably more negative now than they were in 1996, but not as bad as they were in 1992.
|
Is it easier for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was three years ago, or not?
|
||||
|
Yes, |
|
AS EASY |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
41 |
46 |
13 |
* |
|
1996 Jan 5-7 |
42 |
40 |
16 |
2 |
|
1992 Jan 3-6 |
36 |
51 |
12 |
1 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
|
* Less than 0.5% |
||||
Unemployment Compared to Three Years Ago?
This is one of the measures that offer the starkest comparison to 1996. Over three-quarters of Americans now say that there is more unemployment than there was three years ago. That compares with only 46% who said there was more unemployment than three years previous in 1996. Still, the current measure is very slightly less negative than in 1992, when it was 84%.
|
Is there more or less unemployment in the country than there was three years ago?
|
||||
|
More unemployment |
Less |
ABOUT THE SAME (vol.) |
No |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
77 |
16 |
4 |
3 |
|
1996 Jan 5-7 |
46 |
38 |
7 |
9 |
|
1992 Jan 3-6 |
84 |
11 |
2 |
3 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
Is America as Respected as It Was Three Years Ago?
This indicator is significantly more negative than in either 1992 or 1996. Sixty-eight percent of Americans say that America is not as respected now as it was three years ago, while just 27% say that it is. In 1996, the numbers were 58% "not as respected" and 34% "as respected," and in 1992, still less than a year after the victory in the Persian Gulf War, 50% said "not as respected" and 40% said "as respected."
These results no doubt reflect two major events that have occurred in the current Bush administration: 1) the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and 2) the international furor brought about by the U.S. and British invasion of Iraq earlier this year.
|
Is America as respected throughout the world as it was three years ago, or not?
|
||||
|
Yes |
No |
MORE (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
27 |
68 |
3 |
2 |
|
1996 Jan 5-7 |
34 |
58 |
2 |
6 |
|
1992 Jan 3-6 |
40 |
50 |
6 |
4 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
Is Security as Safe as It Was Three Years Ago?
Americans are more likely today to say that they feel the nation's security is as strong as three years ago than to say that it is not, by a margin of 53% to 30%. But the percentages are significantly weaker than they were in January 1992, at which time almost two-thirds of the population said they felt the country was as strong as three years ago. This again no doubt reflects the impact of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
|
Do you feel that our security is as safe, that we're as strong as we were three years ago, or not?
|
||||
|
Yes |
No |
Stronger (vol.) |
No opinion |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
|
2003 Oct 10-12 |
53 |
30 |
16 |
1 |
|
1992 Jan 3-6 |
64 |
29 |
4 |
3 |
|
(vol.) Volunteered response |
||||
Implications for Bush Re-election Prospects
First and foremost, it is important to reiterate that it is too early to make any meaningful predictions about President Bush's re-election prospects at this time. There's simply too much that can change, and a great deal will depend on who the Democrats nominate to be Bush's opponent.
Still, the types of comparisons reviewed in this article give us a preliminary feel for the types of challenges or strengths that the president faces next year.
It is clear that the public's perception of his economic stewardship is not as positive as was its perception of how things had gone for the first three years of the Clinton administration. This is particularly true about unemployment, which some observers feel could be a major problem for the Bush re-election campaign next year.
It's also clear that the events of Sept. 11, and certainly the worldwide criticism of the United States that came after the war against Iraq started in March, have led the American public to feel that the United States is not as respected as it was when Bush took over. And, comparatively speaking, Americans are not as secure as they felt under Bush's father.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,004 adults, aged 18 years or older, conducted Oct. 10-12, 2003. For results based on the total sample of adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording, and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
