The Interesting Month of March

March is over, and the month had several interesting and significant events from the perspective of American public opinion.

March represented the final month in the open enrollment for health insurance using the exchanges created by the ACA (with the exception that those who claim to have initiated their enrollment before the end of the month and who are thus allowed to continue to finalize their enrollment up until April 15). We just published our estimate of the percentage of the U.S. adult population that does not have health insurance. It shows fairly conclusively that the uninsured percentage continued to drop in March, particularly in the second half of the month. I'm always cautious about interpreting the causality behind these changes, since the numbers have shown some variability over time in the six years we have monitored them on a daily basis. But the trend this year so far looks to be continuously down. We assume this reflects the increased health insurance enrollment due to the ACA. Certainly in that sense the legislation has worked as it was intended to -- although over 14% of U.S. adults still don't have health insurance (based on our figures), meaning that it's a long way to go until the country reaches universal coverage status.

America's workers -- over 17,000 of them whom we interviewed in March -- looked around their workplaces and reported back a little more positive news about hiring in March. Overall, 38% of all workers said that their place of work was hiring, while 15% said their place of employment was letting people go. This is, by a slight margin, the best read we have had on this measure since 2008. At its worst in early 2009, 27% said that their place of employment was firing people and only 23% said that it was hiring. That's a -4 point index value, compared with today's +23.

We didn't see a concomitant increase in economic confidence in March. Attitudes about the economy were pretty flat. Certainly economic confidence is back up after reaching a near-term nadir in October after the government shutdown, but it's not as good as earlier last year.

The month included our release of data from our annual March Environment Gallup Poll Social Series update. One of the key findings is the lack of concern that Americans have about global warming. I wrote here about some of the reasons why Americans may not be as concerned about this issue as, for example, the recent United Nations report on climate change would indicate that they should be. Although there has been fluctuation over the years, worry about global warming is no higher now than it was in 1989 when we first asked the question. Both "global warming" and "climate change" are dead last on Americans' list of worries about environmental concerns.

Finally, President Obama ended March with a monthly approval average of 43%. The average for all presidents Gallup has tracked is about 53%, so Obama is clearly below average at this juncture. Several presidents -- Harry Truman, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush, and George W. Bush -- had individual ratings in the 20% range, so Obama is clearly not in the depths to which other presidents have descended. I would say that he's holding on to a modestly below average approval rating.

Obama's worst monthly averages so far have been 41%, registered in August, September, and October, 2011, and again over the three-month period of November through January just past. He has received individual approval ratings in the high 30% range, but no monthly average below 41%.

Where does President Obama's March standing put him compared with other presidents at this point in their presidencies? Well, there have been only five previous presidents who made it to the sixth year of their presidency after their initial election and for whom we have job approval ratings -- Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush. (Unfortunately, we have no polling to measure the approval ratings of Washington, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe, Andrew Jackson, Grant, Wilson, and Franklin Roosevelt in March of their sixth years as president.)

As noted, Obama for the month of March had a job approval rating of 43%. That puts him ahead of two presidents in March of their sixth year: Richard Nixon, who was at 26% in March of 1974, and George W. Bush, who was at 37% in March of his sixth year (2006).

Nixon was, of course, on his last legs in March 1974, just about five months away from resigning as he faced impeachment over his involvement in initiating and covering up the Watergate incidents. Bush was suffering mightily from perceptions that the Iraq war was going poorly in March of 2006.

At the same time, Obama is well behind Bill Clinton, whose job approval ratings were at 65% in March of 1998; Ronald Reagan, who was at 63% in March of 1986; and Dwight Eisenhower, who was at 50% in March, 1958.

So, using this measure, Obama is below average for March of his sixth year ratings compared with the handful of recent presidents who also served into their sixth year after having been elected to their first term initially.

Most presidents hold out the conceit that their contemporary or current job approval ratings don't matter, as "only history will judge" how well they do as president. That's a good way to reduce cognitive dissonance, but not necessarily a good way to measure the job they are doing. The way in which citizens contemporaneously judge a president is an important indicator of how that president is doing his job -- regardless of what history ultimately says. One of the requirements of a president is to serve as a leader and inspiration for the people of the nation while he is in office, not just to play for the history books.

It will be interesting to see if the perceived success of the Affordable Care enrollment through the exchanges gives the president a boost in his approval ratings in the weeks ahead.