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PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update on registered voters' presidential preferences shows Barack Obama with a modest four percentage point advantage over John McCain, 47% to 43%.
Voter preferences fluctuated in the time immediately after Obama's much publicized overseas trip. First, Obama's lead stretched to nine points near the conclusion of the trip, only to disappear when McCain moved into a precise tie with Obama near the end of last week. Now, the race seems to have reverted to where it has been for most of the summer, with Obama holding a narrow advantage. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.)
If indeed the race has settled back to "the norm" for the time being, it could represent the calm before the storm. With vice presidential running mate announcements and the party conventions forthcoming in the next several weeks, enough voter preferences could be changed by these events to cause renewed movement in the overall numbers. -- Jeff Jones
For the Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey, Gallup is interviewing no fewer than 1,000 U.S. adults nationwide each day during 2008.
The general-election results are based on combined data from August 2-4, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,674 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on land-line telephones (for respondents with a land-line telephone) and cellular phones (for respondents who are cell-phone only).
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
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