Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Expanded)
Results based on a three-day rolling average
|Date(s)||% Obama||% McCain|
Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.
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Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.
Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of registered voters who say they would support each candidate if the presidential election were held today.
Gallup Daily is tracking the percentage of registered voters who say they have already voted in this year's election, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in their state, as well as those who say they plan to vote at some point before Election Day.
George H.W. Bush enjoyed high approval ratings his first three years in office, but low ratings in the fourth year led to his re-election defeat.
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