Gallup Daily: Likely Voters (Traditional)
Results based on a three-day rolling average
|Date(s)||% Obama||% McCain|
Gallup's "traditional" likely voter model, which Gallup has employed for past elections, factors in prior voting behavior as well as current voting intention. This has generally shown a closer contest, reflecting the fact that Republicans have typically been more likely to vote than Democrats in previous elections.
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Gallup's "expanded" likely voter model determines likely voters based only on current voting intentions. This estimate would take into account higher turnout among groups of voters traditionally less likely to vote, such as young adults and minorities.
Gallup Daily is tracking the percentage of registered voters who say they have already voted in this year's election, either by absentee ballot or early voting opportunities in their state, as well as those who say they plan to vote at some point before Election Day.
Gallup Daily election tracking reports the percentage of registered voters who say they would support each candidate if the presidential election were held today.
Increased polarization in the U.S., with deep antipathy toward those of the opposite political persuasion, has potentially negative long-term effects.
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