Obama, Romney Tied Nationally and in Swing States

PRINCETON, NJ -- Registered voters nationally and in 12 key swing states are evenly divided in their preferences for president in the 2012 election between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. Romney is at least somewhat more competitive versus Obama than either Rick Perry or Herman Cain, in polling conducted before the recent allegations of sexual harassment against Cain surfaced.

The "swing state" results are from the initial USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, based on Oct. 20-27 Gallup Daily tracking in 12 states that will be among the most crucial to winning the 2012 presidential election. The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. USA Today and Gallup will report on voters' preferences in this group of states at least monthly leading up to the 2012 election.

The comparison national presidential trial-heat results reported above are based on Gallup Daily tracking Oct. 26-27. These are similar to what Gallup measured nationally earlier this year. Romney and Obama were essentially tied in Gallup's September presidential trial heat update, with Obama having a slight edge versus Perry. This is Gallup's first measurement of Obama versus Cain. In general, these trial heats are more favorable to Obama than Gallup's measure of Obama versus a generic Republican, which generally shows Obama trailing.

Voting Enthusiasm Higher Among Republicans in Swing States

Although swing states historically receive the most attention from the presidential campaigns, registered voters in these 12 states at this point are no more likely to be enthusiastic about voting in the 2012 election than are voters nationally. Currently, 47% of swing-state registered voters and 48% of all U.S. registered voters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting.

Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting, both nationally and in the swing states. On the national level, 56% of Republican registered voters and 48% of Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In the 12 swing states, the Republican advantage in enthusiasm is 59% to 48%.

There is a wider partisan gap in favor of the Republican Party among the most enthusiastic voters -- those who say they are extremely enthusiastic -- in the swing states and among the broader U.S. voting population.

The Republican advantage in enthusiasm may be greater currently because of the apparent vulnerability of Obama, whose approval rating remains in the low 40% range. Gallup asked the same question in early 2008 -- when George W. Bush had 34% job approval -- and Democrats were more likely to be enthusiastic. In the 2004 election, which resulted in a narrow win for Bush, Republicans and Democrats were about equally enthusiastic on this measure.

Implications

A year before the 2012 presidential election, the contest is shaping up to be a competitive one -- both nationally and in the key swing states. How competitive the contest ultimately will be partly depends on whom the Republicans nominate to challenge Obama. Currently, Romney seems to be a slightly stronger challenger than either Perry or Cain.

Perceptions of the economy's direction are also likely to be a key factor, especially in the swing states.

With so much attention likely to be concentrated on voters in these 12 key swing states, they may be more susceptible to influence from the campaigns than voters in other states. Gallup and USA Today will continue to report on the trends in voter sentiments in these states, as well as nationally, leading up to the presidential election.