Public Sees U.S. as Winner in Standoff With China

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- By a two-to-one margin, Americans believe the United States prevailed in the recent controversy with China surrounding a U.S. spy plane that collided with a Chinese plane and made an emergency landing in China. A new CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows that 48% of the public sees the United States as the winner in the standoff, while 24% think the Chinese won, and 28% do not think either side won or have no opinion on the matter. The public overwhelmingly approves of the way President George W. Bush handled the situation but does not think that getting the captured plane back is more important than maintaining U.S.-Sino relations. Compared with a year ago, the public has shifted from a net positive view of China to a net negative view. About one in four Americans now consider China to be an enemy of the United States, nearly double the proportion observed last year. Despite this, two-thirds of Americans say the controversy will not affect their likelihood of purchasing goods manufactured or produced in China, and 40% of Americans still think China should host the 2008 Summer Olympic Games.

Bush Handling of Situation Rated Very Positively
The 24 U.S. crewmembers aboard the EP-3E surveillance plane were released about two weeks ago after being detained for 11 days. The Americans were released shortly after the United States government sent a letter to the Chinese government saying it was "very sorry" for the incident. According to the poll, 71% of Americans approve of the way Bush handled the spy plane incident, while 25% disapprove. This represents an increase from an April 6-8 poll that showed 61% approval for Bush in this matter. As compared to other foreign crises in recent years, the current rating of 71% is quite favorable. In fact, only a few historical ratings obtained by Gallup are higher, including:

● An 80% approval rating for former President George Bush's handling of the situation between Iraq and Kuwait at the beginning of Operation Desert Shield in August 1990.

● A 78% approval rating for former President Bush's handling of the situation in the Soviet Union in September 1991, shortly after the Soviet government was dissolved.

● A 76% approval rating for former President Jimmy Carter in November 1979 at the beginning of the Iran Hostage Crisis.

As would be expected, approval for Bush's handling of the China situation is much higher among Republicans (87%) than it is among independents (67%) and Democrats (58%). There are also considerable differences by age. More than eight in 10 (85%) Americans age 65 and older approve of Bush's handling of the situation with China, compared to 79% of those between the ages of 50 and 64, 70% of those between the ages of 30 and 49, and only 52% of those 18-29 years old. Men are more likely than women to approve of Bush's actions in this matter, by a 76% to 67% margin. This is interesting given that women (53%) are actually more likely than men (44%) to think the United States was the winner in the dispute with China.

Public Does Not See Return of Plane as Crucial Goal
One final issue remains unresolved in the dispute with China, the fate of the plane that is still being held by the Chinese. U.S. diplomatic efforts to negotiate the return of the plane last week did not produce an agreement. The public does not see the return of the plane as an overriding American foreign policy priority. Given a choice, 59% of Americans think maintaining U.S.-Sino relations is more important, even if it means the United States does not get the plane back. Thirty-seven percent think getting the plane back is more important, even if it means relations between the two countries will get worse. There is little variation on this among the key subgroups in America.

China Now More Likely to Be Viewed as an Enemy
One clear result of the spy plane controversy is that Americans today have a decidedly more negative view of China than they did a year ago. According to the poll, 25% of Americans consider China an "enemy," while an additional 44% consider it an "unfriendly" nation. Only about a quarter of the public has a favorable view of China, seeing it as either an "ally" (5%) or a "friendly" nation (22%). This represents a rather dramatic shift of opinion when compared to last year. A May 2000 Gallup poll showed that a majority of the public had a favorable view of China, with 10% seeing it as an ally and 41% considering it friendly. Just 13% thought of China as an enemy, roughly half the proportion found in the latest poll.

Many believe the recent standoff with the United States could jeopardize China's bid to host the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing. A majority of Americans -- 52% -- think the 2008 games should not be held in China, while 40% think they should. Opinion on this is sharply divided according to whether or not one has a favorable view of China. Sixty percent of those who view China as unfriendly or an enemy believe China should not host the Olympics, while 32% think they should. Among those who see China as a friendly nation or an ally, opinion is nearly the opposite, with 60% thinking China should host the Olympics and 36% thinking it should not.

Despite the controversy, China remains one of the United States' largest trading partners, and the U.S. economy relies to a great degree on imports from China. At this point, it is unclear if this situation will change in light of the recent events. On a personal level, the majority of Americans say the controversy will not affect their likelihood of buying goods manufactured or produced in China. Sixty-four percent of the public says it will have no effect, while 34% say it will make them less likely to buy Chinese goods. Twenty-one percent of those between the ages of 18-29 say they will be less likely to buy Chinese goods, while the proportion is twice as high (42%) among Americans age 50 and older. Liberals and conservatives also show differences in this regard, as 43% of conservatives say they will be less likely to purchase Chinese products, as compared to only 28% of liberals.

Survey Methods

The results below are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,015 adults, 18 years and older, conducted April 20-22, 2001. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For each of the following countries, please say whether you consider it an ally of the United States, friendly, but not an ally, unfriendly, or an enemy of the United States. How about -- [RANDOM ORDER]?

A. Canada

 

	Ally	Friendly, but not an ally	Unfriendly	Enemy	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	58%	36	2	1	3
2000 May 18-21	65%	31	1	1	2

B. China

 

	Ally	Friendly, but not an ally	Unfriendly	Enemy	No opinion
	%	%	%	%	%
2001 Apr 20-22	5	22	44	25	4
2000 May 18-21	10	41	30	13	6
2000 Mar 17-19	4	24	32	21	19
1999 Mar 12-14 ^	1	28	26	10	35
1998 Jun 22-23 ^	3	28	25	8	36
1997 Oct 27	4	21	27	9	39
1983 May 8-12 †	5	47	18	3	27
^ L.A. Times Poll
† Based on half sample

C. Iraq

 

	Ally	Friendly, but not an ally	Unfriendly	Enemy	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	4%	6	30	56	4
2000 May 18-21	2%	8	39	47	4

D. Israel

 

	Ally	Friendly, but not an ally	Unfriendly	Enemy	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	32%	40	14	6	8
2000 May 18-21	35%	44	10	4	7
2000 Mar 17-19	40%	20	14	4	22

E. Mexico

 

	Ally	Friendly, but not an ally	Unfriendly	Enemy	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	34%	54	5	3	4
2000 May 18-21	33%	55	6	3	3

F. Russia

 

	Ally	Friendly, but not an ally	Unfriendly	Enemy	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	11%	45	25	13	6
2000 May 18-21	12%	49	22	11	6
2000 Mar 17-19	9%	34	26	14	17
1999 Apr 13	2%	44	27	5	22

Thinking about the recent situation involving China, the U.S Navy reconnaissance plane, and the 24 crew members that were recently released by China,

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Bush handled this situation?

 

	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	71%	25	4

All in all, who would you say was the winner in this situation between China and the United States -- [ROTATED: China (or) the United States]?

 

	China	United States	BOTH/EQUALLY (vol.)	NEITHER (vol.)	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	24%	48	8	16	4

Thinking about the U.S. Navy plane still being held by China, which comes closest to your view -- [ROTATED: getting back the plane is more important, even if it means U.S-Chinese relations will get worse, (or) maintaining U.S.-Chinese relations is more important, even if it means the U.S. does not get back the plane]?

 

	Getting back the plane is more important	Maintaining relations is more important	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	37%	59	4

Does this incident make you less likely to buy goods manufactured or produced in China, or does it have no effect?

 

	Yes, less likely	No, has no effect	MORE LIKELY (vol.)	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	34%	64	*	2

As you may know, China is making a bid to host the Summer Olympic games in Beijing in 2008. Do you think the 2008 Summer Olympic games should or should not be held in China?

 

	Should	Should not	No opinion
2001 Apr 20-22	40%	52	8

*Less than 0.5%