Story Highlights
- Index dips to -10, down from -6
- Confidence still one of the highest weekly averages of 2014
- Economic outlook score dropped after a large rise
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index dipped to -10 for the week ending Nov. 23. This is four points lower than the -6 found the previous week, but still one of the highest scores seen in 2014.
Until early October, the index had been fairly stable in 2014, averaging -16 and rarely moving more than two points from week to week. In October, however, the index began improving, reaching -10 for the week ending Oct. 12. The index climbed further in November, reaching -6 last week, a weekly high not found since June 2013. While this week's score is down from what Gallup has measured for the last two weeks, it remains one of the most positive weekly averages since Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily in 2008.
Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: American's views of current economic conditions and whether they think the economy will get better or will get worse. In the past week, views of the current economy stayed constant, but ratings of whether the economy is getting better or worse grew more negative.
For the week ending Nov. 23, 24% of Americans said the economy was "excellent" or "good," while 31% said it was "poor." This results in a current conditions score of -7. The economic outlook component, however, dropped to -13, from -4 the week before, and is back to the level it was at three weeks ago. Currently, 41% of Americans say the economy is getting better and 54% say it is getting worse. The economic outlook score remains above the levels Gallup measured from June through early September.
Americans' optimism for the economy in the week ending Nov. 16 appears to have been short lived because last week, fewer Americans said the economy was getting better. Optimism may have increased as a result of the Nov. 4 midterm elections, or may have dipped last week after President Barack Obama announced his immigration plan.
Bottom Line
Although Gallup's Economic Confidence Index dropped slightly from the highs found earlier in November, it remains one of the highest scores found in 2014. This could be a good sign for holiday spending, which Gallup projects will be slightly higher than in 2013. If confidence again increases and recovers from the dip last week, it could enter positive territory for the first time since daily tracking began in 2008.
Survey Methods
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Nov. 17-23, 2014, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 3,547 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
Learn more about how the Gallup U.S. Daily works.
