U.S. Economic Confidence Index Level, but Masks Volatility

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Gallup's Economic Confidence Index was stable at -12 for the week ending July 19. This is consistent with the weekly averages since the beginning of July.

While the weekly averages were flat between the week ending July 12 and the week ending July 19, the three-day rolling averages provide additional insights into the recent volatility in economic confidence. Between July 5 and July 7, the Economic Confidence Index averaged -9. It then began to drop, falling to -12 in the three-day average for July 8-10. This slump in confidence continued, with the average reaching -17 for July 12-14, the time during which Greece struck a deal with its European lenders that allowed it to stay in the eurozone. This was the lowest three-day rolling average found since Sept. 19-21, 2014. The three-day rolling averages since then have improved, closing out last week at -9.

Americans More Negative About Economic Outlook Than Current Conditions

Gallup's Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: how Americans rate the current economy and whether they feel the economy is getting better or getting worse. As has been the case since March, Americans rated the outlook for the economy worse than they rated current economic conditions for the week ending July 19.

The current conditions score was essentially unchanged from the week prior at -5. This was the result of 25% of Americans saying the economy is "excellent" or "good" and 30% saying it is "poor." Meanwhile, 39% of Americans said the economy is "getting better," while 57% said it is "getting worse." This resulted in an economic outlook score of -18, slightly below the -16 from the week prior, and the lowest weekly average since the week ending Sept. 21, 2014.

Implications

Greece became the first developed country to default on payments to the International Monetary Fund in June, putting the U.S. markets on edge. Last week, Greece appeared willing to walk away from the new bailout terms its European creditors were demanding. This was enough to shake Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy, but confidence then rebounded as quickly as it fell after Greece and its creditors worked out a new deal. As a result, the index last week looks stable, even though it went on a short-term roller-coaster ride. Stocks on Wall Street were tumultuous two weeks ago, leading up to the deal, but appear to have recovered. Now that the Greek crisis appears to be on the way to a resolution, confidence is about back to where it was before.

These data are available in Gallup Analytics.

Survey Methods

Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted July 13-19, 2015, on the Gallup U.S. Daily survey, with a random sample of 3,551 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 50% cellphone respondents and 50% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

Learn more about how Gallup Daily tracking works.