Support for Gorsuch Lower Than for Other Recent Court Picks

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans' initial reaction to President Donald Trump's nomination of Judge Neil Gorsuch to the U.S. Supreme Court is more positive than negative -- 45% say the Senate should vote to confirm Gorsuch while 32% say it should not. However, support for confirming Gorsuch is lower than what Gallup has found for most recent Supreme Court nominees in the first days after presidents announced their selection.

Gallup has gauged initial public support for all recent Supreme Court nominees since 1991 except current Justice Stephen Breyer. While a substantial proportion of Americans -- typically about one in four -- do not have an opinion, most express one. The average level of support for recent nominees has been 51%.

Current Chief Justice John Roberts had the highest initial support of recent nominees, at 59%. Harriet Miers, whose nomination President George W. Bush ultimately withdrew, had the lowest support at 44%. Current Justice Elena Kagan also had below-average support, at 46%.

Judge Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama's nominee for the Supreme Court vacancy Gorsuch is now slated to fill, had higher support (52%) than Gorsuch does. Republicans in the Senate refused to consider Garland's nomination, arguing that presidents in their final year should not get to fill court vacancies. Democrats in the Senate are now pondering whether to obstruct Gorsuch's nomination.

Gallup trends show that most nominees continue to enjoy more public support than opposition during the process leading to confirmation. The average for the nominees in Gallup's final reading has been 53%, just slightly higher than the average 51% initial support. Meanwhile, as the percentage with no opinion decreases, opposition usually increases, from an average of 26% initially to 34% in Gallup's final measures.

Of the two nominees whose initial ratings were most similar to Gorsuch's -- Kagan and Miers -- Kagan's support held steady through her confirmation process and she was confirmed, while Miers' support fell and she was derailed. Thus, Gorsuch's fate could partly depend on whether public opposition to his being confirmed rises in the coming months.

One sign that Gorsuch's nomination could become seriously imperiled is if Americans become divided as to whether the Senate should confirm him. That has happened for only two recent nominees -- Miers and Robert Bork -- and neither was ultimately confirmed. Gallup did not poll on Bork's July 1987 nomination until much later in the process when it became controversial. Prior to the Senate vote that denied Bork a seat on the court, 38% of Americans were in favor of his confirmation and 35% opposed.

Democrats Show Record-Low Support for Gorsuch

The poll finds 74% of Republicans, 44% of independents and 21% of Democrats in favor of Gorsuch being confirmed to the Supreme Court. A majority of Democrats (57%) oppose his confirmation.

Initial opinion on Obama's nominees was similarly divided along party lines. As with Democrats' opposition to Gorsuch, a majority of Republicans opposed each of Obama's nominees. Meanwhile, an average of 73% of Democrats favored each of Obama's nominees.

Nominees prior to 2009 also typically enjoyed strong support among those who identified with the president's party. But majority opposition from the other party has been a more recent development, likely resulting from the growing political divide in evaluating presidents and their actions.

Only Miers engendered majority opposition by any party group among the 1991 through 2005 court nominees. At least initially, more Democrats supported than opposed both Roberts' and Thomas' confirmations, and more Republicans favored than opposed seating Ginsburg on the Supreme Court.

The 57% of Democrats opposed to Gorsuch's nomination ties Republicans' opposition to Sonia Sotomayor in 2009 as the highest in Gallup's records. Gorsuch's 21% support among Democrats is the lowest Gallup has measured for a nominee among a party group to date.

Independents have been more likely to favor than oppose the confirmation of presidents' Supreme Court nominees, with Miers showing the narrowest margin. Notably, independents' support for Gorsuch exactly matches their support for Garland.

Implications

The quest to fill Justice Antonin Scalia's Supreme Court seat after his February 2016 death will continue to play out. Senate Democrats may elect to filibuster during the debate on Gorsuch's nomination, thus blocking a confirmation vote. Such an action would likely please Democratic Party supporters, a majority of whom oppose Gorsuch's nomination. But despite Democrats' opposition, Americans overall are more likely to favor than oppose Gorsuch's nomination.

Democratic officials opposed to seating Gorsuch on the court may get some political cover if public opinion turns against him, as it did for Miers and Bork. But Americans' greater support than opposition to Garland's nomination didn't help convince Republicans to act on it, so public opinion may not be enough to save Gorsuch if Democrats are intent on blocking him. Senate Republicans could, however, vote to change long-standing Senate rules to require a simple majority vote to end debate on Supreme Court nominations, the so-called "nuclear option," allowing them to hold a final vote on Gorsuch.