Confidence in Iraqi Government Up in Kurdistan Before Vote

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Before the recent clashes between Iraqi and Kurdish forces after Iraqi Kurdistan's vote for independence, confidence in the Iraqi government in the semi-autonomous region was on an upswing. Nearly half of residents in Kurdistan (49%) expressed confidence in the national government, up 15 percentage points from the previous year and higher than levels in the rest of the country (41%).

	2016	2017
	% Yes	% Yes
Kurdistan	34	49
Rest of Iraq	43	41
*It is important to note that this survey was conducted in April and May, just before the announcement of the official referendum, which sparked a diplomatic breakdown between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Iraqi government leaders.
Gallup World Poll

Rather than fresh enthusiasm for the central government in Baghdad, this significant increase in confidence may partly reflect Iraq's success in nearly ridding the country of the Islamic State (IS) militant group. This change in attitudes is also evident in Kurdistan residents' mushrooming confidence in Iraq's military. Fifty-seven percent in the region are confident in the military, up 21 points from 2016 but still well below the 77% confident in the military in the rest of Iraq.

	2016	2017
	% Yes	% Yes
Kurdistan	36	57
Rest of Iraq	77	77
Gallup World Poll

People in Kurdistan are likely weighing divergent sentiments: a century-old longing for an independent Kurdish state versus recent positive feelings toward Iraqi institutions for their military accomplishments. Kurds often refer to themselves as the world's largest ethnic group without a homeland of their own -- but after the IS began taking control of large swaths of Iraq in 2014, the Kurdistan region set aside its push for independence and ordered its military, known as the Peshmerga, to join the U.S.-backed Iraqi forces in the fight against the IS.

Last week, the Iraqi military began reclaiming parts of the oil-rich province of Kirkuk, an area that had been under control of the Peshmerga since 2014 when it was threatened by the IS. These clashes between the Peshmerga and the Iraqi military may quickly undermine any goodwill among residents of Kurdistan that had been generated by the cooperative military assault on the IS throughout the past year.

Four in 10 Approve of al-Abadi's Job as Prime Minister

Once the IS militant group was ousted from its last urban outpost, Hawija, on Oct. 5, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that the Islamic State would be completely defeated in Iraq by the end of this year and Iraq will regain complete control of its geographic borders. Even before this last military victory, Kurdistan residents' approval of al-Abadi had substantially improved, increasing from 15% in 2016 to 40% in 2017 -- a 25-point increase in one year.

	2016	2017
	% Approve	% Approve
Kurdistan	15	40
Rest of Iraq	37	52
Gallup World Poll

Implications

Last week's swift military surge by the Iraqi forces has resulted in their full takeover of the governorate of Kirkuk. Further, Kurdish Peshmerga are withdrawing from all disputed territories and oil fields in neighboring governorates, severely curtailing Kurds' dreams of an independent, economically viable state. However, the current show of force by the Iraqi central government could now compel the Kurdish government to work out a compromise that might maintain the geographic integrity of Iraq.

Jay Loschky contributed to this article.