Balkan Neighbors, EU Hopefuls Are Worlds Apart on Migrants

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Adding yet another potential wrinkle to the migration debate in the European Union, the bloc announced in July that it could start accession negotiations next year with Macedonia and Albania -- two Balkan neighbors whose views toward migrants could not be farther apart. Macedonia's score of 1.47 on Gallup's Migrant Acceptance Index is the lowest in the entire world, while Albania's score of 7.22 makes it one of the most-accepting countries in the world for migrants.

Sweden	7.92	Cyprus	5.41
Ireland	7.74	Malta	4.95
Luxembourg	7.54	Slovenia	4.42
Netherlands	7.46	Greece	3.34
Spain	7.44	Poland	3.31
Albania*	7.22	Romania	2.93
Denmark	7.09	Lithuania	2.72
Germany	7.09	Bulgaria	2.42
Portugal	6.65	Croatia	2.39
United Kingdom	6.61	Estonia	2.37
Finland	6.58	Czech Republic	2.26
Italy	6.49	Latvia	2.04
France	6.46	Slovakia	1.83
Belgium	6.16	Hungary	1.69
Austria	6.06	Macedonia*	1.47
Maximum possible score on the index is 9.0. *Albania and Macedonia are candidate countries.
Gallup World Poll, 2016

If Albania and Macedonia make sufficient progress toward reform, the two countries will continue to take steps to join a bloc that has struggled to find accord on migration since the height of the migration crisis in 2015. This division is further reflected in Gallup's finding that the EU is the most divided region in the world on its Migrant Acceptance Index, which gauges people's acceptance of migrants based on increasing degrees of personal proximity. The higher the resulting index score, the more accepting the population is of migrants.

Scores in the EU with its current membership range from a high of 7.92 in Sweden to a low of 1.69 in Hungary. Macedonia's score is lower than the one for Hungary -- one of the few countries to pull out of the recent U.N. global migration agreement -- while Albania's score would rank it just after Spain.

Cultural norms and traditions factor into people's attitudes toward migrants and Albania's higher scores may reflect the hospitality that is ingrained in its culture. This is illustrated in an old Albanian saying, "Before the house belongs to the owner, it first belongs to God and the guest."

Albanians historically have offered "besa" -- taking care of those in need and being hospitable -- to Jews fleeing Nazi persecution during World War II, to Kosovar refugees during the Kosovo War, and to Syrian refugees in the present conflict. Macedonia, on the other hand, sealed its border with Greece during the recent migrant crisis that started in 2015.

Desire to Migrate Elevated in Both Countries

While Albania and Macedonia are on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to their acceptance of migrants in their own societies, both countries themselves have extensive diasporas, and more than six in 10 residents say they have relatives or friends in other countries that they depend on for help.

Relatively high percentages in each country would also personally like to migrate permanently to other countries -- which potentially would be much easier if they were to join the EU. Sixty-two percent of Albanians and 33% of Macedonians in 2017 said they would like to migrate permanently to another country if they could, which is far higher than the wishes in almost all existing EU member states. Germany is a top desired destination for potential migrants in each country.

Albania*	62%	Spain	17%
Italy	36%	Germany	16%
Macedonia*	33%	Hungary	16%
Cyprus	30%	Poland	16%
Belgium	27%	Bulgaria	15%
United Kingdom	26%	Portugal	15%
Lithuania	25%	Croatia	14%
Slovenia	25%	Slovakia	14%
Romania	24%	Denmark	13%
France	21%	Luxembourg	13%
Greece	21%	Ireland	12%
Latvia	20%	Sweden	12%
Malta	18%	Austria	10%
Netherlands	18%	Czech Republic	10%
Estonia	17%	Finland	10%
*Albania and Macedonia are candidate countries.
Gallup World Poll, 2017

Implications

Before next year, both countries will need to demonstrate to the EU an ability to sustain reforms they've already made, and make additional progress on fighting organized crime and corruption, which majorities in each country acknowledge is a problem. However, those are not the only issues potentially complicating their eventual integration in 2025 -- if all goes according to plan: The bloc would be absorbing two countries with high unemployment -- and a high desire to migrate -- and with Macedonia's entry, the EU would gain a country as opposed to migrants as current member Hungary.

Anita Pugliese contributed to this analysis.