WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans foresee a somewhat challenging year ahead for the country, based on their predictions for various aspects of U.S. affairs and daily life. Majorities of U.S. adults think 2025 will be a year of political conflict, economic difficulty, international discord, increasing power for China and Russia, and a rising federal budget deficit.
However, there is at least some optimism for 2025, as 66% of U.S. adults expect gains in the stock market, 54% think there will be increasing or full employment, and 52% predict reasonable price growth. Meanwhile, Americans are essentially tied in their projections for what 2025 will hold when it comes to the United States’ power in the world, the number of labor strikes, taxes and crime rates.
Gallup has periodically asked Americans for their predictions for the coming year since 1960. Surveys before 2022 were conducted in person or by telephone, and those results are not directly comparable to the current data, which were collected Dec. 4-15 in a nationally representative web survey via Gallup’s probability-based panel.
Republicans’ Positive Predictions Far Outpace Democrats’
With Donald Trump about to return to the White House, Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to offer positive predictions for all of the dimensions measured. Independents’ expectations are similar to the national averages.
Broad majorities of Republicans foresee positive outcomes for the U.S. on all measures except political cooperation, which is predicted by 45%. Conversely, no more than one-quarter of Democrats expect positive results for 11 of the issues, while 31% anticipate few labor strikes and 46% think the stock market will rise. Independents’ positive predictions only rise to the majority level for two items -- the stock market and employment.
A gap in partisans’ positive predictions is typical, as Americans who identify with the president’s party are more optimistic in their outlook for the year ahead. Although Democrats were more hopeful than Republicans about all dimensions for 2023, their optimism was not as fervent as Republicans’ is this year. At the end of 2022, the nation was plagued by high inflation, which likely tempered Democrats’ optimism. Trump’s victory in November has energized Republicans and has undoubtedly contributed to their broadly positive expectations for the year ahead.
Across the 13 dimensions, Republicans’ positive predictions are 30 to 79 percentage points higher than they were two years ago, while Democrats’ are between five and 59 points lower.
As a result of Republicans' increased positivity, Americans overall offer more positive predictions now than they did in 2022, with the exception of one issue -- fewer now (46%) than in 2022 (64%) expect that Russia’s power in the world will decline, an 18-point slide.
Bottom Line
Americans’ forecast for the year ahead is tied to their views of the current domestic and international climates. Recent Gallup polling finds that opinions of the economy, the direction of the country and President Joe Biden’s job performance are all negative, which is likely contributing to their outlook for 2025. The exception is Republicans’ broadly positive predictions for the year ahead as Trump prepares to become president again.
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