Record Surge in Republican Satisfaction With State of Nation

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Thirty-four percent of U.S. adults are satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., up from 20% in January. The increase in satisfaction is driven by a surge among Republicans, whose satisfaction jumped from 10% in January to 68% this month. In contrast, Democratic satisfaction tumbled from 32% to 5%. More independents are satisfied now than a month ago, 30% versus 18%.

The latest results are based on a Feb. 3-16 Gallup poll, the first reading on this measure since President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The large shifts in satisfaction reflect partisans’ reactions to the change from a Democratic to a Republican administration. Gallup has observed similar party shifts in satisfaction during prior presidential transitions.

What sets the current shift apart is the size of the Republican increase. The 58-point surge is the largest, by a significant margin, that Gallup has measured between surveys dating back to 1991, when results were first compiled by political party. The two previous largest increases came during the past two presidential transitions -- 40 points for Democrats in 2021 and 33 points for Republicans in 2017.

Other large increases in satisfaction among party groups were seen for both independents and Republicans around the start of the Iraq War in 2003, for all party groups during the Gulf War in 1991, for Democrats immediately after 9/11, and for Republicans and Democrats in 1998 and 1999 during the investigation, impeachment and ultimate acquittal of President Bill Clinton.

Though based on a larger lag time between surveys, Republican satisfaction improved by 29 points from January 1981 (18%) and June 1981 (47%) after Ronald Reagan became president.

Democratic Drop in Satisfaction One of Largest

The 27-point decrease in Democratic satisfaction this month also ranks as one of the largest poll-to-poll declines in Gallup’s party trend, along with a 28-point drop among Democrats in the days after Trump’s victory in the 2016 election and a 25-point decline for Republicans after Joe Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 election.

Other large declines in satisfaction occurred after important news events that created challenges for the incumbent party. These include the 2008 financial crisis, the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the George Floyd murder and subsequent racial justice protests, which were all followed by sharp drops in Republican satisfaction at a time when Republican presidents were in office.

Overall Increase in Satisfaction Is 11^th Largest

The 14-point increase in satisfaction among all Americans is one of the largest Gallup has measured since the question was first asked in 1979. However, it is less than half as large as the 30-point increase that occurred in 1991 after the U.S. entered the Gulf War with Iraq in 1991. Then, 62% of Americans said they were satisfied with the way things were going in the U.S., up from 32% earlier that month before the war began.

There was also a 24-point increase in satisfaction at the start of the Iraq War in 2003 and an 18-point jump after 9/11. In addition to those international events, Gallup measured significant increases in satisfaction at the start of the Reagan and Biden presidencies in 1981 and 2021, respectively. Americans also became significantly more satisfied in several presidential election years when the U.S. economy was healthy, including in 1984, 1996 and 2000, reflecting more broad-based improvement across parties.

Government Continues to Rank as Most Important Problem

Each month, Gallup asks Americans to name, without prompting, the most important problem facing the U.S. For the fourth month in a row, the government is cited more often than any other issue. Currently, 27% name the government, followed by immigration (18%) and the economy in general (16%).

Those three issues, along with inflation, have ranked among the top four issues every month since August 2022.

Mentions of the government have increased by seven points since December and 10 points since October. Since that preelection reading, mentions of the economy have dropped by five points and mentions of immigration by three.

Inflation has fallen to single-digit mentions (8%) for the first time since September 2023. The last time mentions of inflation were lower than now was in December 2021.

Other problems commonly mentioned this month include the federal budget deficit (6%), race relations (5%), unifying the country (4%), democracy and elections (4%), and moral and ethical decline (4%).

Nearly Half of Democrats Identify Government as Top Problem

Increased concern about the government is seen primarily among Democrats -- with mentions doubling from 22% in October when Biden was still in office to 45% today. Independents are also more likely to name the government now than in October (26% vs. 17%), while the 12% of Republicans now mentioning the issue is essentially unchanged.

Immigration continues to be Republicans’ top concern, with 30% citing it; however, that is down 10 points from October. Seventeen percent of independents and 6% of Democrats mention immigration, generally similar to the October figures.

Mentions of the economy are down at least slightly among all party groups since October, with a larger decline among Republicans (from 28% to 19%) than independents (from 20% to 16%) and Democrats (from 16% to 11%).

The federal budget or budget deficit now ties with inflation and the government as the third-ranking issue among Republicans.

Bottom Line

The inauguration of Donald Trump has greatly altered Republicans’ and Democrats’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the United States. Republicans now show the largest increase in satisfaction in successive polls throughout the past 34 years, while Democrats’ decrease essentially ties as the largest. Presidential inaugurations have become major turning points in how partisans evaluate the state of the nation. In the past, “rallying events” involving U.S. military action and other international incidents have had similar effects, but not to the same degree that a change in the party of the president does in the current environment.

The increased connection between the party of the president and Americans’ satisfaction with the state of the nation is further underscored by the extent to which aspects related to the government are named as the most important problem facing the nation. Mentions of the government as the most important problem facing the country commonly center on unhappiness with the incumbent president -- but they also highlight frustrations with partisan gridlock and attempts by the opposing party to thwart the current administration’s policy agenda.

In Trump’s first term, the government ranked as the most important problem 38 times in 48 measurements. And in Biden’s recently completed term, the government was the top-mentioned problem 33 times in 47 measurements.

In contrast, the government was the top problem 19 times in Barack Obama’s eight years as president (all during his second term), not once during George W. Bush’s presidency, and only once in Clinton’s presidency (in September 1998, after the release of the Starr report investigating the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal, among other matters.

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