Growing Worry Over Medicare, Social Security

Editor’s Note: This research was conducted in partnership with West Health through the West Health-Gallup Center on Healthcare in America, a joint initiative to report the voices and experiences of Americans within the healthcare system.

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Roughly 40% of U.S. adults — equivalent to about 110 million Americans — doubt that Medicare or, separately, Social Security will be available in the next 10 years, according to a new study from the West Health-Gallup Center on Healthcare in America.

This research is part of the State of the States 2025: Insights on Healthcare in America study that features findings from a June 9-Aug. 25 nationally and state-representative survey of nearly 20,000 U.S. adults from all 50 states and the District of Columbia. It is the largest public opinion survey to date on perceptions of Medicare and Social Security, aside from those conducted by the federal government.

Doubts about the future of Medicare and Social Security are highest among those under 50, half or more of whom think it is not too or not at all likely that Medicare and Social Security will be available in the next 10 years.

The survey finds greater concern about the sustainability of these programs among populations most likely to be dependent on them. Americans without healthcare insurance and those relying on Medicaid are less likely than their counterparts to believe Medicare and Social Security will still be available in the next 10 years.

In addition, Republicans are generally more confident than Democrats and independents that Medicare and Social Security will still exist in 10 years. Republicans’ optimism is concentrated among those 50 to 64 (65%) and 65 and older (75%), while just 39% of Republicans aged 18 to 49 feel the same. The differences by age are less pronounced among Democrats and independents, resulting in wider gaps between older Republicans and Democrats (as well as independents) than between younger partisans.

Six in 10 Americans More Concerned Than Last Year About Benefits Changes

Beyond their doubts about the future of Medicare and Social Security, roughly six in 10 U.S. adults each say they are more concerned today than they were a year ago (which would have been at the end of President Joe Biden’s term) about potential changes to Medicare (58%) and Social Security (61%) benefits. These findings were collected before the federal government announced a 2.8% cost-of-living increase in Social Security payments for 2026, but also 10% increases in Medicare Part B premiums and deductibles.

In addition, Americans with greater healthcare needs — such as those managing multiple chronic conditions or taking several prescriptions — are more likely to say they feel more concerned this year than last. In particular, individuals diagnosed with anxiety or depression, or those who have a compromised immune system, report heightened concern about potential changes to benefits compared with those indicating other types of diagnoses.

Although increased concerns over potential changes to benefits are common across many demographic subgroups, they vary significantly by political affiliation. More than 80% of Democrats and roughly six in 10 independents say they are more concerned today than they were a year ago, compared with about three in 10 Republicans.

Social Security and Medicare Important to Healthcare Affordability

According to the study, 91% of people who say they receive Medicare benefits say the program is extremely important (62%) or important (29%) to their ability to afford healthcare. Similarly, 84% of those who say they receive Social Security report it is extremely important (52%) or important (32%) to healthcare affordability.

Regardless of their demographic characteristics, the vast majority of recipients say that both Medicare and Social Security are important to their ability to afford healthcare. However, there is significant variation by income and health status in the proportion of recipients who consider these programs to be extremely important.

Individuals with annual household incomes below $48,000 (representing roughly 80 million Americans) and those reporting “poor” or “fair” health (an estimated 66 million Americans) are considerably more likely to say these benefits are extremely important to their ability to afford healthcare. These patterns suggest that any changes to Medicare or Social Security could disproportionately affect those already facing financial or health-related vulnerabilities.

Bottom Line

For decades, Medicare and Social Security, two of the nation’s largest federal programs, have been crucial to the health and financial stability of hundreds of millions of Americans. Earlier this year, Medicare celebrated its 60^th anniversary, and Social Security turned 90. Meanwhile, the latest data from the West Health-Gallup Center on Healthcare confirm that recipients overwhelmingly say both programs are vital to their ability to afford healthcare.

Despite their importance, the future of these programs is uncertain. According to the latest forecast from the federal government, both are on a trajectory for insolvency in less than 10 years — which corresponds with public perceptions doubting the longevity of these programs.

The survey results indicate that any reduction in benefits or access to either program would have far-reaching consequences, intensifying the challenge of securing quality, affordable healthcare. Those most dependent on these programs — individuals with lower incomes, those already receiving state healthcare assistance or those with greater medical needs — would be especially vulnerable.

Full data from State of the States 2025, including state-by-state findings, are available at the newly launched West Health-Gallup Center on Healthcare, a digital hub featuring 20 years of data on the American healthcare experience.

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