Record Lows Say Congressional Incumbents Deserve Reelection

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, record-low shares of U.S. registered voters say they would reelect their own representative or most members of Congress. For the first time in a final pre-midterm reading, less than half of voters (43%) think their own representative deserves another term, while 15% say the same for most members of Congress.

Before this year, support for reelecting one's own representative had ranged from 50% to 69% in Gallup's final pre-midterm readings dating back to 1994. Support for reelecting most members of Congress has consistently been lower, ranging from 21% to 58% over the same period.

Gallup’s Oct. 1-19, 2026, poll finds that Republican voters are more likely than Democratic voters to say their own representative deserves reelection (51% vs. 45%, respectively), while independent voters are less likely to hold that view (36%).

The partisan gap is wider when it comes to Congress more broadly, with 29% of Republicans, compared with 11% of Democrats and 9% of independents, saying most members deserve another term. Republicans currently hold a narrow four-seat advantage over Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Their greater support for reelection is consistent with the historical tendency for voters aligned with the majority party to be more favorable toward reelecting most members.

Because the poll does not identify whether respondents are represented by a Republican or Democrat in the House, the findings do not indicate which party's incumbents face greater opposition from voters.

Pre-Midterm Congressional Approval Lowest in Trend Since 1974

Voters' reluctance to reelect members of Congress comes as Americans’ approval of the 119th Congress has declined substantially to 14%, the lowest Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election in its trend dating back to 1974. However, the current reading is not the lowest Gallup has measured in its complete trend, with the all-time low being 9% recorded in November 2013.

The president’s party has lost House seats in 11 of the 13 midterm elections since 1974, with losses ranging from five to 63 seats. The only exceptions were 1998 and 2002, when the president’s party gained five and six seats, respectively. Congressional approval was relatively high in both years, at 44% and 50%. In all nine midterms when congressional approval was below 30%, the president’s party lost House seats.

The size of those losses has varied, though. In 1994, 2010 and 2018, when congressional approval ranged from 21% to 23%, the president’s party entered the election with substantial House majorities but lost control as its seat total fell by 40 to 63 seats. By contrast, in 2014, when congressional approval was 20%, President Barack Obama’s Democratic Party lost just 13 House seats, as Republicans already held the House majority.

The overall decline in approval of the 119th Congress largely reflects lower ratings among Republicans, whose rating has dropped from 53% in February 2025 to 29% today. Republican approval peaked at 63% in March 2025 before falling sharply in October and reaching 23% in November amid the nation’s longest government shutdown. Although it has recovered somewhat since then, it remains well below its early 2025 levels.

Meanwhile, Democratic approval of Congress has remained consistently low, registering in single digits in all but one reading since February 2025. Just 4% of Democrats currently approve. Independents’ approval has closely tracked the national average, declining from 26% in February 2025 to 13% today.

Economic Concerns and Pessimism Loom Large Ahead of Midterms

Amid low congressional approval, the government or poor leadership ranks as the nation's most frequently cited problem, mentioned by 26% of Americans. However, economic concerns collectively rank higher, with 38% naming at least one economic problem, including inflation or the high cost of living (17%), the economy in general (15%) and gas prices (7%). Immigration ranks fourth among individual issues, at 9%.

Americans' assessments of the U.S. economy continue to be largely negative. The net economic conditions rating, calculated by subtracting the percentage who rate the economy as poor (currently 48%) from the percentage who rate it as excellent or good (19%), currently stands at -29 points. The current rating is among the most negative Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election and is similar to 2010 (-31) but less negative than 2022 (-35), following a year of high inflation.

Yet the election outcomes differed considerably. In 2010, Obama's Democratic Party lost 63 House seats, compared with just nine under President Joe Biden in 2022. Democrats entered both elections with a House majority, although their majority was considerably smaller in 2022.

By contrast, in 1998, when the net economic conditions rating reached a pre-midterm high of +60, President Bill Clinton's Democratic Party gained five House seats, although Republicans retained their majority. However, positive economic ratings have not always been accompanied by favorable election outcomes for the president's party. In 1994, 2006 and 2018, when pre-midterm net economic ratings ranged from +10 to +43, the president's party lost between 30 and 53 House seats.

The current -29 economic rating is down from -14 in January 2025 and near the recent low point of -33, recorded in May 2026. Economic ratings have shifted sharply along party lines since President Donald Trump began his second term. Republicans' net rating has risen from -49 in January 2025 to +32 today, while Democrats' has fallen from +23 to -68, near its lowest point during this period. Independents' ratings have remained negative throughout, declining from -14 to -37.

Satisfaction With Direction of U.S. Remains Low

Americans' satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. remains low, with 23% currently satisfied and 75% dissatisfied. The latest satisfaction reading is among the lowest Gallup has recorded ahead of a midterm election, similar to the 22% in 2010 and 24% in 1982. Satisfaction was lowest in 2022, at 17%, and highest in 1998, at 60%.

Given that the president’s party lost 63 House seats in 2010, 26 in 1982 and nine in 2022, the size of the losses did not always correspond with how low satisfaction was.

Satisfaction has generally hovered in the low 20s since April 2026, after reaching 32% in January. The decline since May 2025 largely reflects falling satisfaction among Republicans and independents. Republican satisfaction has dropped to 55%, while independents' satisfaction has fallen to 18%. Meanwhile, Democratic satisfaction has remained in the single digits throughout Trump's second term and currently stands at 2%.

Bottom Line

The 2026 midterm elections are approaching amid record-low support for incumbents in Congress, historically weak congressional approval, negative economic assessments and widespread dissatisfaction with the country's direction. While these measures point to a challenging national mood, similarly negative public sentiment has accompanied widely varying midterm election outcomes. The extent of the president's party's losses has often depended in part on how many House seats it held going into the election.

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