Sept. 29, 2022
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Brazil's presidential election this weekend will test a recent left-leaning trend in Latin American politics. Voters in the world's seventh-largest nation will decide whether to reelect incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, a right-wing populist who has run and governed on a law-and-order platform, or former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a left-wing social reformer.
Most polls indicate da Silva is likely leading Bolsonaro by a comfortable margin. However, that doesn’t mean Bolsonaro will go quietly if he loses, as he has already leveled allegations of electoral fraud and made statements allegedly advocating violence among his supporters.
News reporting like yours is critical to the world's understanding of the election.
We're here to help and have a variety of resources available to enrich your coverage through insights on Brazil since 2006.
What is the political climate in Brazil right now?
About six in 10 Brazilians are disenchanted with Bolsonaro.
In the run-up to the election, nearly six in 10 Brazilians (58%) disapprove of the job Bolsonaro is doing, while 38% approve. These data were collected July 22-Aug. 8, 2022, just before election campaigning officially started.
The current 38% of Brazilians who approve of the job Bolsonaro is doing is similar to most ratings throughout his presidency -- and just two percentage points lower than ratings during his first year in office.
Most lack confidence in the honesty of elections.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly leveled allegations of fraud ahead of the impending vote. While Brazil's government and other politicians have refuted these allegations, Brazilians have placed little confidence in their elections for years. Two in three Brazilians (67%) interviewed this year said they do not have confidence in the honesty of elections, while 30% said they do.
This is little changed from 2021, when 68% of Brazilians lacked confidence in the honesty of elections while 32% were confident. However, the current confidence is still notably higher than most ratings over the past 15 years.
About seven in 10 Brazilians see widespread corruption in their government.
Sixty-nine percent of Brazilians see corruption as widespread in their government, while 26% say it is not.
Although Bolsonaro appealed to voters in his first election because he promised to clean up politics and root out corruption, throughout his first term, the percentage of Brazilians seeing corruption as endemic has never dropped lower than the present number. Bolsonaro himself has been the target of corruption allegations.
Further, while Bolsonaro lambasted da Silva for leading Brazil's "most corrupt government ever" in a recent debate, corruption is perceived to be just as widespread today as it was during da Silva's presidency, if not slightly more so.
One in three Brazilians have struggled to afford food.
Though inflation has come down, food prices in Brazil remain high, which is reflected in the 34% of Brazilians who said they have struggled to afford food at times in the past year.
More Brazilians have been unable to afford food at times in the past two years under Bolsonaro than at most points in the past 15 years.
Most remain pessimistic about their local job market.
Although Brazil's jobless rate fell to 9.1% this summer -- nearly its lowest level in seven years -- a majority of Brazilians (56%) still think it is a bad time to find a job where they live. Four in 10 Brazilians see it as a good time.
Less than half say their local economy is improving.
Forty-nine percent of Brazilians say that economic conditions in the city or area where they live are getting better, while 35% say they are getting worse.
Brazilian adults are less optimistic about the direction of their economy than they have been the past two years. In fact, the current 49% who see local economic conditions improving is the same as Bolsonaro's first year in office.
However, most in Brazil say their standard of living is improving.
The majority of Brazilians (58%) surveyed in late July and early August saw their standard of living getting better, while slightly more than one in five (22%) saw their situation getting worse. These numbers are slightly improved from where they were in 2021 and in line with sentiment in 2020.
Throughout Bolsonaro's first term, the majority of Brazilians have been upbeat about their living standards, but notably not nearly to the same level as they were throughout da Silva's presidency.
Brazilians' satisfaction with efforts to preserve the environment is among the lowest in the world.
Gallup World Poll surveys in 2020 found that just 22% of Brazilians are satisfied with efforts to preserve the environment. Their satisfaction with environmental efforts is not only the lowest among countries with the Amazon rainforest within their borders but also among the lowest in the world, along with Italy (20%), Mongolia (21%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (22%), Lebanon (22%) and Ukraine (22%).
Poorer and older people in Brazil are among the most vulnerable in the world to the impact of rising global temperatures.
A new analysis from Gallup -- published in collaboration with Citi -- finds that, given current climate projections, high-temperature days could decrease global life evaluations by an estimated 17% by 2030.
The analysis shows a more pronounced effect of rising temperatures on already vulnerable demographic groups -- namely, people aged 65 and older as well as those with lower levels of education.
Significant negative relationships between high-temperature days and life evaluation were seen individually in several of the world's most populated countries, including Brazil, China, Turkiye, Nigeria and Mexico.
More than three in four Brazilians say women are not treated with respect in the country.
The perception that women in Brazil are not treated with respect and dignity precedes Bolsonaro taking office -- and his lengthy history of making misogynistic statements that many women consider disrespectful and offensive.
In the lead-up to the election, 21% of Brazilians say women in their country are treated with respect and dignity, which is neither the lowest percentage on record (17% in 2020) nor the highest (26% in 2015).
Go back in time with these Gallup World Poll findings from Brazil since 2007.
Historical findings from Brazil:
- 2018: More Brazilians Struggling to Afford Basics This Election
- 2016: Brazilians' Trust in Country's Leadership at Record Low
- 2014: Majority of Brazilians Expect World Cup to Hurt Economy
- 2007: Will Brazil's New Oil Be a Blessing or a Curse?
Read additional analysis on Brazil:
Latin America: Fighting Machismo and Murder: "Femicide rates in some countries are very high," says Johanna Godoy, Gallup's Regional Director for the World Poll in Latin America and the Caribbean. "Studies in Brazil show that one in three women have experienced a violent episode in the past year. In general, a 'machismo' mindset is still very present in most of the countries in this region. It's hard for Latin American women to compete with men, especially in terms of salary and job opportunities. Nevertheless, it is easy to see women's gains in business and politics. In recent years, Latin America has elected more female presidents than any other part of the world."
Discover findings from the U.S.:
Americans have had mostly favorable views of Brazil in the recent past.
Gallup polled Americans on their favorability of Brazil periodically between 1999 and 2016. Each time, majorities in the U.S. said they had "very" or "mostly favorable" views of the country, ranging from 59% in 1999 to 73% in 2016, reflecting some growth in positive views of Brazil over that time. Their highest ratings of Brazil came ahead of the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro -- though many Americans didn't express interest in watching.
These favorable ratings of Brazil fall short of the highest ratings Americans give to their favorite countries such as Canada, Great Britain and France, but their ratings of Brazil have exceeded those of other Latin American countries such as Colombia (ranging from 26% to 30% between 2001 and 2003), Cuba (ranging from 10% to 54% between 1996 and 2022) and Venezuela (ranging from 34% to 41% between 2007 and 2019). Americans' ratings of Brazil are more similar to those of Mexico, which Americans have mostly rated positively in Gallup's trend from 1989 to 2022.
Find all of Gallup's Country Ratings trends here.
The Gallup Vault: Many Americans pointed to a biting frost in Brazil amid a 1954 coffee price spike.
Keep these important resources on hand.
- Gallup content archives on Brazil: Access Gallup content on Brazil dating back to 2007, including all articles, Q&As, podcast interviews and more.
- Gallup Analytics: Gallup has polled thousands of residents in Brazil over the past 15 years. Explore leading economic indicators and social and wellbeing data collected since 2005 in more than 160 countries and areas. Contact mediainquiry@gallup.com for questions and access to the platform.
Want to talk? Our experts are available to speak with you.
“The spate of recent good economic news may bolster the odds for incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro, who currently trails the popular former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in most polls. However, Gallup surveys in Brazil in late July and early August show healthy doses of economic optimism and skepticism among the electorate. The good news may be too little, too late for some Brazilians.” -- Julie Ray, Managing Editor for Gallup World News
“Transparência nas eleições é um tema relevante que conduz a esse voto decisivo -- dois em cada três brasileiros não confiam na integridade do processo eleitoral e aproximadamente o mesmo percentual considera que a corrupção está difundida no governo.” -- Gil Queiros, Gallup's Public Sector Division
“Women will play a key role in the election in Brazil. The majority of Brazilians do not feel that women are treated with respect in the country, and there is a need to focus on public policies centered on respect for Brazilian women, regardless of the ideology of the president who will lead the country next.” -- Johanna Godoy, Gallup's Regional Director for the World Poll in Latin America and the Caribbean
Contact mediainquiry@gallup.com to schedule interviews with our experts.
