As the Russia-Ukraine war crosses the one-year mark, we are taking stock of public opinion across Ukraine, the U.S. and Russia. While the war has continued to spiral between offensives and counteroffensives, overall, the conflict has reached a stalemate. But how has public sentiment played into the key dimensions of this conflict?
1. Americans remain steadfast in supporting Ukraine, even if it is a prolonged war.
2. But not everyone is pleased with the current policy. A plurality of Republicans and about a third of independents say the U.S. is currently doing too much to support Ukraine.
3. Ukrainians, however, support fighting until victory. That resolve is even higher among those who live in the western region of the country.
4. Despite economic hardship, Ukrainians have rallied around their nation.
5. Nearly all Ukrainians denounce the Kremlin.
6. Most Ukrainians expect their country to join NATO and the European Union in the next decade.
7. Ukrainians aren’t going anywhere. A record-low 9% say they would like to leave their country permanently.
8. Ukraine’s neighbors have warmed to the idea of migrants living in their countries.
9. Still, Russians weren’t feeling the pinch of Western sanctions in late 2022.
A year into the war, Ukrainians and Russians seem prepared for a prolonged conflict. While the military situation remains fluid, the broad dimensions of the war and its sustainability, from a public sentiment perspective, seem clear.
Ukrainians have the will to fight, their U.S. allies remain supportive, and neighboring countries are more welcoming to migrants than they have been. However, the desired impact of sanctions seems to have failed among the Russian public, and Russians may be proving more resilient in the face of economic isolation than many expected at the outset of the conflict. This failure may force the West to fundamentally shift its calculus on how to bring the conflict to a decisive end in Kyiv’s favor.
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